market situation in the olive oil and table olives sectors · olive oil and table olives sectors...

Market situation in the olive oil and table olives sectors

Committee for the Common Organisation

of the Agricultural Markets

- Arable crops and olive oil -

26 March 2020

AGRI G.4

PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION & ENDING STOCKS

World production above average for three consecutive marketing years…

1 435 2 324 1 752 2 188 2 264 1 932

1 024

853

810

1 185 9551 133

2 458

3 177

2 562

3 3733 219

3 065

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19 (prov.) 2019/20 (for.)

WORLD OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION

non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2014/15-2018/19

Source: International Olive Council, MS declarations. Note: excl. pomace oil.

thousand tonnes

WORLD -3% WORLD 6%

EU -12% EU 0%

non-EU 19% non-EU 17%

2019/20 vs. 2018/19 2019/20 vs. 5-y average

…resulting from lower production in the EU...

EU production in 2019/20 expected in line with 5-year average

842 1 403 1 291 1 262 1 790 1 160

222

475

182429

174

359300

320

195

346

185

265

61

109

69

135100

130

1 435

2 324

1 752

2 1882 264

1 932

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19 (prov.) 2019/20 (for.)

EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION

Other EU (+18%)

Portugal (+30%)

Greece (+43%)

Italy (+107%)

Spain (-35%)

EU (-15%)

Average 2014/15-2018/19

Source: International Olive Council, MS declarations. Note: excl. pomace oil.

thousand tonnes

…compensated by higher production in non-EU.

Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.

340140 100

325140

300

160

150 178

263

194

225

120

130 110

140

200

145105

110 110

100

100

120

299

323 312

357

322343

1 024

853 810

1 185

955

1 133

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19(prov.)

2019/20 (for.)

NON-EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTIONOthers non-EU (7%)

Syrian ArabRepublic (+20%)

Morocco (-28%)

Turkey (+16%)

Tunisia (+114%)

Total non-EU (19%)

Average 2014/15-2018/19

thousand tonnes

Non-EU production in 2019/20 expected 17% above 5-year average

96% of EU estimated production already harvested

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

EU OLIVE OIL MONTHLY PRODUCTION, 2019/20

ES (95.1%)

IT (98.9%)

EL (95.5%)

PT (100.0%)

Others

tonnes

Source: MS declarations (15/03/2020).

High EU availabilities in 2019/20

2 509

2 991

2 291

2 633

2 276

2 691

2 9392 855

2 112

2 326

2 1132 234

1 960

2 159 2 152 2 165

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (fin.) 2017/18(prov.)

2018/19 (est.)2019/20 (for.)

EU+UK OLIVE OIL AVAILABILITIES AND USES

Availabilities (stocks+prod.+ import extra EU) Uses (consumption+exports extra EU)

thousand tonnes

EU+UK EXTRA-TRADE

Imports picking up, driven by high availability in Tunisia…

volume (t) share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2018/19 (%)

Tunisia 30 830 71 33 050 64 34 779 75 39 898 81 14.7

Argentina 3 085 7 5 113 10 1 999 4 2 396 5 19.9

Syria 2 990 7 7 200 14 3 112 7 628 1 -79.8

Morocco 2 589 6 1 280 2 3 626 8 2 604 5 -28.2

Turkey 1 473 3 3 612 7 1 807 4 1 777 4 -1.6

Australia 767 2 202 0 0 0 1 0 :

Chile 628 1 590 1 166 0 13 0 -92.5

Others 857 2 855 2 729 2 1 824 4 150.1

Extra EU 43 219 51 902 46 219 49 141 6.3

EU+UK imports of olive oil from third countries (October - January)

2019/20Trade partner

Source: COMEXT. Period: October - January. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes).

2018/192014/152016/17 2017/182015/162014/19 (5-year average)

…driven by higher imports of EVOO and lower imports of LOO and OPO.

Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes

15091020 (extra virgin)

15091080 (virgin other than lampante)

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19

EXTRA-EU OLIVE OIL IMPORTS, PER CATEGORY

Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510) Olive oil (CN 15099000)Virgin lampante (CN 15091010) Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080) Extra virgin (CN 15091020)Average previous 3 marketing years

tonnes

Higher imports in the first four months of 2019/20

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Oct. 14 Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19

IMPORTS OF VIRGIN OLIVE OIL FROM TUNISIA

quota + out of quota Inward processing

Average previous 3 MY (quota + out of quota) Average previous 3 MY (inward processing)

tonnes183 846 65 515 56 290 121 666 106 133 39 478

Source: Eurostat COMEXT.

Imports from TN under zero duty quota fully allocated

Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period

it is still part of the EU Customs Union. Taxud EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.

Imports from TU at stable pace

Exports increased by 10%

volume (t) share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2018/19 (%)

United States 67 020 37 60 331 33 71 449 36 66 823 30 -6.5

Brazil 19 350 11 25 555 14 22 835 11 34 592 16 51.5

Japan 15 708 9 15 377 9 19 043 9 22 082 10 16.0

China 12 931 7 14 830 8 16 328 8 16 649 8 2.0

Canada 8 665 5 8 707 5 9 156 5 10 610 5 15.9

Australia 7 911 4 7 138 4 8 024 4 9 894 4 23.3

Switzerland 4 770 3 4 562 3 4 928 2 5 069 2 2.9

Others 45 042 25 43 798 24 49 116 24 54 426 25 10.8

Extra EU 181 397 180 300 200 879 220 146 9.6

2015/162016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Source: COMEXT. Period: October - January. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes).

2014/19 (5-year average)Trade partner

2019/202014/15

EU+UK exports of olive oil to third countries (October - January)

Increased exports in all main categories

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19

OLIVE OIL EXPORTS OUTSIDE THE EU, PER CATEGORY

Virgin lampante (CN 15091010) Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Extra virgin (CN 15091020) Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)Olive oil (CN 15099000) Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510)Average previous 3 marketing years

tonnes

Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes

15091020 (extra virgin)

15091080 (virgin other than lampante)

U.S. stockpiling partly absorbed since Nov 2019

Source: United States Department of Agriculture (Foreign Agricultural Service), IHS Markit/GTA.

EU+UK INTRA-TRADE

Intra-trade increased in 2019/20-Q1(1000 tonnes)

TOTAL

Trade partner volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume

Spain 1.8 6.2 1.4 4.6 33.4 71.5 0.2 10.1 0.1 1.6 36.9

Italy 84.3 49.7 22.5 74.1 11.3 24.2 0.0 1.3 0.2 4.5 118.4

Greece 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3

Portugal 38.4 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 38.4

France 17.3 10.2 5.8 20.2 0.4 1.2 1.0 2.0 0.5 11.6 24.9

UK 11.2 6.6 3.3 11.4 0.4 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.3 5.7 15.2

Germany 4.8 2.9 10.1 34.8 2.6 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.8 38.9 0.5 11.9 18.9

Netherlands 3.8 2.2 1.1 4.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.6 12.1 5.8

Others 9.6 5.7 6.8 23.4 2.9 9.5 0.8 1.7 0.9 47.1 2.4 52.1 23.4

Total 169.6 100 28.9 100 30.4 100 46.7 100 1.9 100 4.6 100 282.2

Total same period

previous campaign143.0 26.3 38.3 35.5 1.5 4.6 249.2

Difference (y-o-y%) 18.6 9.8 -20.7 31.5 28.1 1.5 13.2

EU intra-trade of olive oil (CN 1509) (October 2019 - December 2019)

Spain Greece

Period: 01/10/2019 - 31/12/2019. Olive oil excl. pomace oil. Source: COMEXT. All stat. regimes.

Origin (declared exports)

Italy Portugal France Others

EU PRICES(until 19.02.2020)

EVOO prices stabilized recently…

…VOO prices picked-up in ES, stable in IT…

…LOO prices picked-up recently in ES and IT.

TABLE OLIVES

World production above average in 2019/20

868 887 842 913 822 809

1 713 1 690 2 0582 368

1 7512 114

2 581 2 5772 900

3 280

2 5732 923

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18(prov.)

2018/19(est.)

2019/20(for.)

WORLD TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION

non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2014/15-2018/19Source: International Olive Council.

thousand tonnes

WORLD 14% WORLD 5%

EU -2% EU -7%

non-EU 21% non-EU 10%

2019/20 vs. 2018/19 2019/20 vs. 5-y average

2019/20: lower production in ES, compensated by EL

556 601 596 562 588500

249 194 180 261 167207

868 887842

913822 809

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18(prov.)

2018/19(est.)

2019/20(for.)

EU TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION

Other EU Portugal Italy Greece Spain EU EU average 2014/15-2018/19Source: International Olive Council.

thousand tonnes

Spain -15% Spain -14%

Greece 24% Greece -2%

Italy 85% Italy 50%

Portugal 0% Portugal 5%

2019/20 vs. 2018/19 2019/20 vs. 5-y average

Improved trade balance in the first five months of 2019/20

54

48

52

58 60 60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Extra-EU imports of table olives (Sep.-Jan.)

Morocco Turkey Egypt Others Extra EU

thousand tonnes

164

140

169 170 169

185

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Extra-EU exports of table olives (Sep.-Jan.)

United States Canada Russia Saudi Arabia

Australia Others Extra EU

thousand tonnes

Source: Eurostat COMEXT.

U.S. imports of ES table olives below average in January

Source: United States Department of Agriculture (Foreign Agricultural Service), IHS Markit/GTA.

In scope of AD&CD duties: 2005700230, 2005700260, 2005700430, 2005700460, 2005702300, 2005705030, 2005705060, 2005706020, 2005706030, 2005706050, 2005706060,

2005706070, 2005707000, 2005707500, 2005707510, 2005707515, 2005707520, 2005707525.

In scope of large aircraft sanctions: 20057012, 20057025, 07112018, 07112028, 07112038, 07112040, 20057008, 20057016, 20057023.

Thank you

© European Union 2020

Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period

it is still part of the EU Customs Union. Taxud EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.

Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not

owned by the EU, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.

Slide 23: source: Pixabay.com

Market informationhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/plants-and-plant-products/plant-products/olive-oil

Agri-Food Data Portalhttps://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DataPortal/home.html