market headline news: wheat
Post on 12-Jan-2016
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Market Headline News: Wheat
Kim AndersonOklahoma State University
KCBT Wheat Weekly Nearest
KCBT Wheat July Daily
What will it take for $5 wheat?
• $5 wheat requires 620 mb ending stocks• Average use 2.16 bb• 980 – 620 = 360 0.36 bb
1.80 bb• Four times since 1975 below 1.9 bb
Expected Production
• Winter Wheat:• 37.1 million acres planted• 0.81 (percent harvested)• 44 bu/ac average yield• 1.33 bb
• Spring Wheat• 15.7 million acres harvested• 40 bu/ac average yield• 0.63 bb
• 1.96 bb Total Production
Yield More Important than Price
29 bu/ac x $5 = $145
40 bu/ac x $3.75 = $150
June 2010 wheat price
KCBT July $5.13
Basis -$0.80
$4.33
U. S.10%
Ar-gentina
2%Aus-tralia
4%
Canada4%
EU-27 19%
Brazil1%
China17%
Select. Mideast
3%
N. Africa
2%
Pak-istan3%
India11%
Russia7%
Kazakhst2%
Ukraine3%
E Eu4%
Other 7%
Jun17% Jul
17%
Aug21%
Sep9%
Oct5%
Nov2%
Dec3%
Jan1%
Mar3%
Apr9%
May13%
World Wheat Production
What to Hope For Marketing Strategy
• Hope for:–Above average yields.–Below average yields
• Market Strategy:–1/4 to 1/3 at harvest.–2/3 to 3/4 fall & winter.
OETA Saturday Mornings
7:30 a.m.
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