m. amann, i. bertok, j. cofala, f. gyarfas, c. heyes. z. klimont, w. schöpp, w. winiwarter the cafe...
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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.
Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios:
Air quality and impacts
Air quality impactsanalyzed for the CAFE baseline scenario
Health:
• Loss in life expectancy attributable to PM2.5
• Premature deaths attributable to ozone
Vegetation:
• Ozone damage to forests (AOT40)
• Excess acid deposition to forests
• Excess acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
• Excess acid deposition to lakes
• Excess nitrogen deposition
All impacts shown for “no further climate measures” scenario, average results of 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorological conditions
Inter-annual meteorological variabilityfor PM2.5
19991997
2000 2003
Rural concentrations,annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropog. sources
excluding sec. org. aerosols.
Calculations with emissions
for the year 2000
Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.52020
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org.
aerosols Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Loss in life expectancy 2020attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified
anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
0
3
6
9
12
15
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
De
nma
rk
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
land
Italy
Lu
xem
bou
rg
Ne
ther
lan
ds
Po
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Sw
ede
n
UK
To
tal E
U-1
5
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
on
ia
Hu
nga
ry
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Ma
lta
Po
lan
d
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
To
tal N
MS
To
tal E
U-2
5
2000 2010 2020
Premature mortality attributable to ozonerelated to excess of daily max. 8 hour means > 35 ppb (SOMO35)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
da
ily
ma
x 8
-hr
me
an
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
Applied relative risk factor: 1.003 / 10 µg/m3 increase in daily max 8 h mean
Health-relevant ozone concentrations[SOMO35, ppb.days]
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year]
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
De
nm
ark
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Po
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
UK
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
on
ia
Hu
ng
ary
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Po
lan
d
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
2000 2010 2020
Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution
Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours]m
2000 2010 2020
Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations 2020AOT40 [ppm.hours]
Critical level for forests:
5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Acid deposition to forests
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Acid deposition to forests2020
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above
critical loads, using ecosystem-specific
deposition, Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aus
tria
Bel
giu
m
Den
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
her
land
s
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
ede
n
UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gar
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Tot
al N
MS
Tot
al E
U-2
5
2000 2010 2020
Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems
with acid deposition above critical loads,
using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003
meteorologies
Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas, 2020
Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads [km2]
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK
2000 2010 2020
Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Acid deposition to freshwater bodies
Percentage of catchments area
with acid deposition above critical loads,
using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003
meteorologies
Acid deposition to freshwater bodies2020
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Finland Sweden UK
2000 2010 2020
Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads
Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Percentage of ecosystems area
with nitrogen deposition above critical loads,
using grid-average deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003
meteorologies
Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
Tot
al E
U-2
5
2000 2010 2020
Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication
Conclusions
• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.
• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:
– PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)
– Ozone:
• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)
• Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail
– Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3
– Eutrophication remains unresolved
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