linear stationary processes. arma models. this lecture introduces the basic linear models for...

Linear Stationary Processes. Linear Stationary Processes. ARMA modelsARMA models

• This lecture introduces the basic linear models for stationary processes.

• Considering only stationary processes is very restrictive since most economic variables are non-stationary.

• However, stationary linear models are used as building blocks in more complicated nonlinear and/or non-stationary models.

Roadmap

1. The Wold decomposition2. From the Wold decomposition to the

ARMA representation.3. MA processes and invertibility4. AR processes, stationarity and causality5. ARMA, invertibility and causality.

The Wold DecompositionThe Wold Decomposition

Wold theorem in words:

Any stationary process {Zt} can be expressed as a sum of two components:

- a stochastic component: a linear combination of lags of a white noise process.

- a deterministic component, uncorrelated with the latter stochastic component.

The Wold TheoremThe Wold Theorem

If {Zt} is a nondeterministic stationary time series, then

Some Remarks on the Wold Decomposition, ISome Remarks on the Wold Decomposition, I

Importance of the Wold decompositionImportance of the Wold decomposition

• Any stationary process can be written as a linear combination of lagged values of a white noise process (MA(∞) representation).

• This implies that if a process is stationary we immediately know how to write a model for it.

•Problem: we might need to estimate a lot of parameters (in most cases, an infinite number of them!)

• ARMA models: they are an approximation to the Wold representation. This approximation is more parsimonious (=less parameters)

Birth of the ARMA(p,q) modelsBirth of the ARMA(p,q) models

)L(p

)L(q)L(

Under general conditions the infinite lag polynomial of the Wolddecomposition can be approximated by the ratio of two finite-lag polynomials:

Therefore

AR(p) MA(q)

MA processes

MA(1) process (or ARMA(0,1))MA(1) process (or ARMA(0,1))

Let a zero-mean white noise process

- Expectation

- Variance

Autocovariance

MA(1) processes (cont)MA(1) processes (cont)-Autocovariance of higher order

- Autocorrelation

Partial autocorrelation

MA(1) processes (cont)MA(1) processes (cont)

StationarityMA(1) process is always covariance-stationary because

MA(q)MA(q)

Moments

MA(q) is covariance-Stationary

for the same reasonsas in a MA(1)

MA(infinite)MA(infinite)

Is it covariance-stationary?

The process iscovariance-stationaryprovided that

(the MA coefficients are square-summable)

InvertibilityInvertibility

Definition: A MA(q) process is said to be invertible if it admits an autoregressive representation.

Theorem: (necessary and sufficient conditions for invertibility)

Let {Zt} be a MA(q), .Then {Zt} is invertible if and only

The coefficients of the AR

representation, {j}, are determined by the relation

Consider the autocorrelation function of these two MA(1) processes:

The autocorrelation functions are:

Then, this two processes show identical correlation pattern. The MA coefficient is not uniquely identified.In other words: any MA(1) process has two representations (one with MA parameter larger than 1, and the other, with MA parameter smaller than 1).

Identification of the MA(1)Identification of the MA(1)

Identification of the MA(1)Identification of the MA(1)

• If we identify the MA(1) through the autocorrelation structure, we would need to decide which value of to choose, the one greater than one or the one smaller than one. We prefer representations that are invertible so we will choose the value .

Z

AR processes

AR(1)AR(1) process process

Stationarity

geometric progression

Remember!!

AR(1) (cont)AR(1) (cont)

Hence, an AR(1) process is stationary if

Mean of a stationary AR(1)

Variance of a stationary AR(1)

Autocovariance of a stationary AR(1)

You need to solve a system of equations:

11 jjj

Autocorrelation of a stationary AR(1)

ACF

EXERCISE

Compute the Partial autocorrelation function of an AR(1) process. Compare its pattern to that of the MA(1) process.

AR(p)AR(p)

stationarity All p roots of the characteristic equation outside of the unit circle

ACF

System to solve for the first pautocorrelations:p unknowns and p equations

ACF decays as mixture of exponentials and/or damped sine waves, Depending on real/complex roots

PACF

Exercise

Compute the mean, the variance and the autocorrelation function of an AR(2) process.

Describe the pattern of the PACF of an AR(2) process.

Causality and StationarityCausality and Stationarity

ttt aZZ 11Consider the AR(1) process,

Causality and Stationarity (II)Causality and Stationarity (II)

11 11

11

However, this stationary representation depends on future values of

It is customary to restrict attention to AR(1) processes with

Such processes are called stationary but also CAUSAL, or future-indepent AR representations.

Remark: any AR(1) process with can be rewritten as an AR(1) process with and a new white sequence.

Thus, we can restrict our analysis (without loss of generality) to processes with

11

Causality (III)Causality (III)

Definition: An AR(p) process defined by the equation

is said to be causal, or a causal function of {at}, if there exists a sequence of constants

and

- A necessary and sufficient condition for causality is

tatZ)L(p

Relationship between AR(p) and MA(q)Relationship between AR(p) and MA(q)Stationary AR(p)

Invertible MA(q)

ARMA(p,q) Processes

ARMA (p,q)ARMA (p,q)

ttp

q

ttq

pt

q

tqtp

aLaL

L

aZL

LZL

xx

xx

aLZL

)()(

)(ZtionrepresentaMA Pure

)(

)()( tion representa AR Pure

10)( of roots ty Stationari

10)( of roots ity Invertibil

)()(

t

p

ARMA(1,1)ARMA(1,1)

ACF of ARMA(1,1)

taking expectations

you get this system of equations

PACF

ACF

Summary

• Key concepts– Wold decomposition– ARMA as an approx. to the Wold decomp.– MA processes: moments. Invertibility– AR processes: moments. Stationarity and

causality.– ARMA processes: moments, invertibility,

causality and stationarity.