leap of faith to unknown territory estonian ev programme

A leap of faith, in its most commonly used meaning, is the act of believing in or accepting 

something intangible or unprovableWikipedia

Leap of faith to unknown?

Jarmo Tuisk

Introduction of EV’s to Estonian market

Can we predict the future? I mean really?

Heavier-than-air flying

machines are impossible

Lord Kelvin The President of the Royal Society

1895

„I think there is a world market for maybe five computers“

Thomas J. WatsonCEO, IBM

Consumers

Electric carsInfrastructure

Future is puzzle ...

Consumers point of view

The future belongs to (PH)EVs

Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011

95% of Chinese would buy (PH)EV as next car

Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011

But the future should look like today!

Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011

Although the actual needs are different

Data: Accenture consumer survey 2011

~110-120km per charge in Estonia

and the cost of tranportation is rising

Data: Estonian statistics

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%Share of transportation costs in househould monthly expenditures, %

and the cost of tranportation is risingDo you really need toengage polar bearsto explain thenecessity of change?

Preconditions for change: 

infrastructure + cars

Planning of the Estonian EV infrastructure

Planning steps

Use cases• Who • Why• When

Services• What• How (much)

Locations• Where

Technology• With what• How

EV charging use casesPublic/shared charger

Dedicated charger

Routine/plannedcharging

Extraordinarycharging

Daily home charging

Daily office charging

Routine sharedcharging

Travelcharging

Emergencycharging

Use cases and technology options

Daily home charging

Daily office charging

Routine sharedcharging

Travelcharging

Emergencycharging

AC Normal6-8h

AC Medium1-2h

DC fast20-30min

OK

OK

Maybe

Not ok

Not OK

Maybe

Maybe

Maybe

OK

Maybe

Not OK

Not OK

OK

OK

OK

DC quick charging: best match for public chargers Public/shared charger

Dedicated charger

Routinecharging

Extraordinarycharging

Daily home charging

Daily office charging

Routine sharedcharging - OK

Travelcharging - OK

Emergencycharging - OK

3 main use-cases for Estonian public charging network

• Locations hard to predict• Cover the main routes

Emergency charging

• Locations easy to predict• Follow the daily routines

Shared routine charging

• Locations easier to predict• Emphasize tourist routesTravel charging

Initial layout of chargers

Effect of one quick charger in Tokyo

AfterBefore

Quick charging standards

EURELECTRIC’s position:

CHAdeMO  should be the first DC charging standard for Europe and all new standards should preserve backward compatibility.

electric cars

Myths about...Electric cars• Too small to be the real cars• You can’t use them because 

there is no infrastructure• You can’t drive them, 

because they don’t drive more than 120km per charge

• They are too expensive!

Smart phones• They are too big to be 

convenient• You can’t use them, because 

they don’t have buttons• They are unreliable, 

because the battery last only for 24h hours

• They are too expensive!

And you know the story...

Let’s race!Electric vehicle, 

car of the year 2011My current car

EVs are small! Really?

4445mm

Where can I fill up the tank?

Now:At homeAt summerhouseIn future:At home/summerhouseAt officeAt parking houseAt supermarket

Now:At gas station

In future:At gas station

Range test: how far can I drive with 1EUR?

13km

13km

13km

13km

4km

Price test

Price for me: 18 000 EUR

Elegance 1.4TSI

Government pays 18 000 EUR

Price for me: 18 000 EUR

What should I do?

Somewhere here is my future...

Thank you!