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Lara Whitely BinderCenter for Science in the Earth System
Climate Impacts GroupUniversity of Washington
December 2, 2004CIG 5 Year Review
Climate Science in the
Public Interest
The Center for Science The Center for Science in the Earth Systemin the Earth System Enhancing Adaptation to Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Decision Support and OutreachOutreach
Decision Support and Decision Support and Outreach at CSESOutreach at CSES Decision support and outreach activities at
CSES strive to support CSES efforts to increase regional resilience to the impacts of climate variability and change.
Decision support activities are designed to facilitate the use of climate information in operations and planning.
Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder relationships, and allow for feedback to CSES on research needs, products, and services.
Decision-Support Tools: Climate Variability
Seasonal climate outlook
Long-lead (1 year) climate-based streamflow forecasts
Six-month lead time reservoir forecasts tools (under development)
Oregon Coastal Coho salmon survival forecasts
Extreme weather risk forecasting
Office of the Washington State Climatologist
Designed to help with management on seasonal to interannual time scales. Main products and services:
Seasonal Climate Outlook
CIG researchers evaluate global ENSO forecasts and PDO state for relevance to PNW temperature and precipitation conditions for the coming season.
Outlook is reviewed and updated monthly as needed.
Outlook available on CIG web site and the Washington State Climatologist web site
Benefit: Outlook lets resource managers hedge risks based on historically observed responses to ENSO and PDO.
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/cloutlook.shtml
http://www.climate.washington.edu/outlook.html
Long-Lead Experimental Long-Lead Experimental Streamflow Forecasts for the Streamflow Forecasts for the Columbia R. BasinColumbia R. Basin
An important factor in moving water managers towards incorporating climate info
Experimental forecasts made 8-12 months in advance of traditional forecasts
Forecast based on initial conditions, ENSO forecast, PDO state
Benefit: Forecasts guide decisions about reservoir mgmt, hydro production, instream flow mgmt
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
Climate Forecast
Estimated Initial Conditions
ForecastEnsemble
Lead time = 12 months
Warm ENSO Only
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/waterfc/oneyearstreamflow.shtml
Currently developing 6 month streamflow and reservoir forecasts for municipal water supplies in Puget Sound using NCEP forecasts, ESP
Product developed at the request of Puget Sound Water Supply Forum
Benefit: Forecasts will help reservoir managers balance storage, instream flow requirements at critical time periods
Municipal Reservoir Forecasts
Forecast based on ESP
NCEP-based forecast
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/res/hwr/muniwaterfc.shtml
Oregon Coastal Coho Marine Survival Forecasts
Coastal Ocean Conditions
Sea surface temperatures
Sea level
Nearshore winds
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/orcohofc.shtml
Methodology unique in recognizing the impact of winter conditions on coho marine survival.
Provides a pathway for incorporating 1 year lead time climate forecasts into seasonal harvest, allocation, and hatchery decisions
Benefit: Forecasts available 6 to 8 months in advance of traditional forecast methods (jacks, plankton)
Forecasted Jan-March 2005 SST
Forecasted Return Rate for
March 2005
9.33 (1 stand. dev. below mean)
2% (+/- 1%)
10.15(mean value)
1% (+/- 1%)
10.98(1 stand. dev. above mean)
<1%
Experimental 7-14 day extreme weather event risk assessment forecasts available for North America.
Forecasts include probabilities for: Extreme warm/cold days, Days with extremely high
precip, Heavy snowfall events
Benefit: Aids extreme events management
Extreme Weather Risk Forecasting
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/extreme.shtml
High snow events are 2-4+ times more likely during negative PNA than positive PNA, depending on location
Reinstituted in 2003 in partnership with the Washington Department of Ecology
Provides support to public and private entities through collection, interpretation, and dissemination of climate data, forecasts, and other information
Staff includes Phil Mote (State Climatologist), CSES researcher and Outreach Specialist, and Robert Norheim (Assist. State Climatologist), CSES GIS Specialist. Office is housed at CSES.
Benefit: Provides an additional avenue for supporting the use of climate information in resource management
Office of the Washington State Climatologist
http://www.climate.washington.edu/
Decision-Support Tools: Climate Change
Climate change impact scenarios
Client-based research consultancies
Climate change streamflow scenarios archive
Technical planning assistance
GIS mapping
Designed to help managers evaluate and respond to projected climate change impacts. Research focused on the 2020s and 2040s. Main “products”:
Temperature and Precipitation Temperature and Precipitation ScenariosScenarios
Projected changes in average annual PNW temperature and precipitation for the decades of the 2020s and 2040s
Benefit: Scenarios allow managers to consider risks of climate change (i.e., “what if” scenarios).
Temperature Precipitation
2020s Annual Oct-Mar Apr-Sept
Low + 0.9 °F + 2 % -4%
Mean + 2.7 °F + 8% +4%
High + 4.7 °F + 18 % +14%
2040s Annual Oct-Mar Apr-Sept
Low + 2.7 °F -2% - 7%
Mean + 4.1 °F +9% +2 %
High + 5.8°F +22% +9%
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml
Based on an average of 8 global climate models driven by an increase in equivalent CO2 of 1% per year. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s.
Changes in April 1 snowpack available at basin and sub-basin levels
Scenarios for April 1 Scenarios for April 1 SnowpackSnowpack
Current Climate
-44% -58%
“2020s” (+3°F) “2040s” (+4.5°F)
Client-based Research Client-based Research ConsultanciesConsultancies
City of Portland (2002) Tualatin River Basin (2004) Seattle Public Utilities (2004)
Average Monthly Bull Run Inflows1950-1999
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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Inflo
ws,
cfs
Current ClimatePCM3 2040ECHAM4 2040HadCM2 2040HadCM3 2040
Climate change impacts on water
demand18%
Climate change impacts on water
supply16%
Impact of population growth on demand
(no climate change)66%
Palmer, R.N. and M. Hahn, 2002. The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic Management Implications on the Bull Run System.
Climate Change Streamflow Climate Change Streamflow Scenario Tool for the Scenario Tool for the Columbia River BasinColumbia River Basin
Climate-adjusted streamflow data for 2020s and 2040s available on web site for 90+ locations in the Columbia River Basin
Benefit: Removes a barrier to climate impacts analysis. End user does not have to purchase, learn, and defend a new model to examine climate change impacts. Data can be used in existing planning models.
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccstreamflowtool/sft.shtml
Partners:
Northwest Power and Conservation Council
Idaho Dept of Water Resources
US Bureau of Reclamation
US Army Corps of Engineers
Mapping PNW Climate: GIS Mapping PNW Climate: GIS ToolTool
GIS tool being developed to deliver sub-regionally based information on climate and climate impacts.
Mapping past and future patterns of PNW climate, including future climate scenarios.
Numerous data layers: Elevation, hydrography (rivers/lakes),
watershed boundaries, vegetation and land cover, soils, land ownership, political boundaries
Benefit: Designed to aid planning efforts by providing information about the patterns of variability and change at a variety of spatial scales
Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource management. Activities include:
Workshops and meetings (4-5/year) Presentations and briefings (75+/year) One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds) Work with the local media Web site development and maintenance
Provides opportunity for feedback from the stakeholder community
Outreach
Meetings and WorkshopsMeetings and Workshops Sector-specific meetings with
technical resource staff and senior decision makers:
Climate Impacts on Salmon
Management and Recovery in the Columbia River Basin (9.21.04)
Fall climate and water forecast meetings (WA/OR and ID)
Climate and water policy meetings (2001, 2002)
2005: expansion of salmon and coastal work
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/outreach/workshops.shtml
Information about climate variability and change needs to be translated for and delivered to the watershed level. CSES has:
Given numerous presentations to planning units and state staff
Developed language for use in planning
CSES is working to: Build relationships with state
staff and local planning units Develop GIS-based maps of
watershed-scale impacts
Technical Assistance for Watersheds
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/watershedplan.shtml
WA State watershed planning issues affected by climate change (circled)
Climate change workshop for the press, Nov. 8, 2001 (to be repeated ~2005)
Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97
Major Seattle PI special report on 11/13/03; 39 stories on web site
Featured in KPLU (88.5 FM) climate change series, KZOK (102.5 FM) morning show
Nate Mantua interviewed for 12/17/03 story on The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer
Work with the Media
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/about/cignews.shtml
Redesigned in spring 2004 to better serve as a planning resource
An integral component of CSES decision support and outreach efforts
Includes information on: PNW climate and climate
impacts Forecasts and planning
tools Meetings and workshops CIG publications
The New CIG Web SiteThe New CIG Web Sitehttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig
Additional Directions for Decision Support and Outreach, 2005-2010
Increased collaboration with resource managers and other stakeholders to (but not limited to):
More explicitly identify key climate-sensitive decisions and risk exposures that may benefit from new research, decision-support products
Investigate how improved climate forecasts can be applied to decisions affecting salmon and coastal aquatic communities
CSES will continue to develop, maintain, and transition decision support products for PNW decision makers in 2005-2010. Outreach is an important component of that effort. Proposed outreach activities include:
Additional Directions cont’d Develop an adaptation “handbook” for public agencies
Detailing the range of adaptive strategies to help agencies answer “how do we adapt to climate change?”
Continue expanding, enhancing CSES web site To increase the site’s role as a decision-support resource
Expand outreach to coastal, salmon, forecast sectors Using model from hydrology and water resource work to
expand understanding and use of climate information
GIS mapping, Live Access Server for PNW climate data
Third international workshop on regional integrated assessment (2006) Provides opportunity to both share and learn from other
experiences in integrated assessment
In Summary CSES strives to help the region develop the capacity
to adapt to climate variability and change via: Basic and applied research Development of decision-support tools Outreach
Decision support and outreach efforts have been instrumental in developing and maintaining productive working relationships with the stakeholder community
Demand for CSES’s research and products continues to grow, and CSES will continue to respond to these demands.
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