june 30, 2020 covid-19 auto market update · lower miles traveled is contributing to vehicle...
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June 30, 2020
COVID-19 AUTOMARKET UPDATE
Jonathan SmokeChief Economist, Cox Automotive
COVID-19 LOCAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Source: Cox Automotive
CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 19.5 MILLION NATIONALLY
Source: Department of Labor
CONSUMER SENTIMENT DOWN AGAIN LAST WEEKMorning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 22.8% since February 29
Source: Morning Consult
114.23
113.8
81.23
87.52
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1/1/20 1/8/20 1/15/20 1/22/20 1/29/20 2/5/20 2/12/20 2/19/20 2/26/20 3/4/20 3/11/20 3/18/20 3/25/20 4/1/20 4/8/20 4/15/20 4/22/20 4/29/20 5/6/20 5/13/20 5/20/20 5/27/20 6/3/20 6/10/20 6/17/20 6/24/20
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
CONSUMER SENTIMENT VARIES ACROSS MAJOR MARKETS
Since February 29th Since June 22nd
Source: Morning Consult
The growth in cases is generating additional concern, especially in impacted states
Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study
Q27b. How concerned are you about a possible second wave of the coronavirus?Q9a. You may have heard that some states have seen an increase in the number of new coronavirus cases as of June. How concerned are you about the increase in new coronavirus cases?
Level of Concern for a Second Wave
6
13% 11% 10% 12% 16% 15% 15% 12%
26% 23% 22% 24% 21% 24% 23% 21%
61% 66% 68% 64% 64% 61% 63% 67%
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
May15-16
May29-30
June12-13
June26-27
Not very/Not at all Somewhat Extremely/Very
↑ ↑
↑
↑
Level of Concern with Recent Increase in Cases
11% 14%15% 19%
74% 67%
Sun Belt states Other states
Not very/Not at all Somewhat Extremely/Very
Indicates significant difference between state groups
Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 7
The decision to delay purchase changes by the week
Delaying Vehicle Purchase/Lease*
↑↑
7%17%
28%35% 34% 33% 34% 34% 31% 27%
37% 36%29%
Mar5-6
Mar13-14
Mar20-22
Mar27-28
Apr3-4
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
May15-16
May29-30
June12-13
June26-27
Anticipated Delay in Vehicle Purchase**
(among those planning to delay purchase)
32%14% 18% 10% 8% 17% 24%
11% 5% 10% 6%
5%
11% 10%4% 5%
13% 2%4% 10% 7%
4%
32%43% 40%
36% 41%
39% 37%
29% 36%43%
38%
30% 31% 33%49% 46%
32% 37%56% 49% 41%
51%
Mar20-22
Mar27-28
Apr3-4
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
May15-16
May29-30
June12-13
June26-27
Not sure 6+ months 3-6 months Up to 2 months
↑
*Among 6-month auto intenders
↑
Q10. Have you done, or do you think you will do any of the following because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4 Q17a1. How do you anticipate the coronavirus will change the timing of when you purchase or lease a vehicle, if at all? **Among 6-month auto intenders who will delay purchasing/leasing a vehicle
Factors At Work• Spike in COVID-19 cases• Civil unrest• Continued unemployment concerns• General uncertainty in the market
8Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study
But purchase intentions are down
% OF CONSUMERS IN-MARKET TO PURCHASE A VEHICLE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
Early Outbreak(March 20-22)
20%Shelter in Place
(April 24-25)
22%Reopening(May 29-30)
16%
16%Recovery to Date
(June 26-27)
Q4. Now as of today, when do you think you will be in the market to purchase or lease a vehicle?
Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 9
Lower miles traveled is contributing to vehicle service delays
Delaying Vehicle Service/Repair*(% consumers that said “Yes”)
↑↑
5%13%
29%37% 40% 37% 32% 32% 32% 28% 25% 25% 26%
Mar5-6
Mar13-14
Mar20-22
Mar27-28
Apr3-4
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
May15-16
May29-30
June12-13
June26-27
↑ ↑
Q10. Have you done, or do you think you will do any of the following because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4Q18a. You said you have delayed or may delay taking your vehicle in for service/maintenance. What makes you say that?
*Among vehicle owners** Among vehicle owners who are delaying service
39%of those delaying service are doing so because they aren’t driving as much as they did before COVID-19**
↑
ZERO PERCENT FINANCING CONTINUES DECLINE
Source: Cox Automotive
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr-
17
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr-
18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug-
18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-
19
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr-
20
May
-20
Jun-
20
0% APR Finance Share
NEW SALES NOW HAMPERED BY SUPPLY
Source: Cox Automotive
2,000,000
2,200,000
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
Active New Vehicle Inventory by Week
2019 Active Inventory 2020 Active Inventory
USED INVENTORY DOWN
Source: Cox Automotive
0.0 Days
20.0 Days
40.0 Days
60.0 Days
80.0 Days
100.0 Days
120.0 Days
140.0 Days
160.0 Days
01/0
8/20
01/1
2/20
01/1
6/20
01/2
0/20
01/2
4/20
01/2
8/20
02/0
1/20
02/0
5/20
02/0
9/20
02/1
3/20
02/1
7/20
02/2
1/20
02/2
5/20
02/2
9/20
03/0
4/20
03/0
8/20
03/1
2/20
03/1
6/20
03/2
0/20
03/2
4/20
03/2
8/20
04/0
1/20
04/0
5/20
04/0
9/20
04/1
3/20
04/1
7/20
04/2
1/20
04/2
5/20
04/2
9/20
05/0
3/20
05/0
7/20
05/1
1/20
05/1
5/20
05/1
9/20
05/2
3/20
05/2
7/20
05/3
1/20
06/0
4/20
06/0
8/20
06/1
2/20
06/1
6/20
06/2
0/20
06/2
4/20
06/2
8/20
Inve
ntor
y Da
ys' S
uppl
y
Days Supply Wholesale Inventory and Retail Inventory
Rolling 7 Day Supply Retail Rolling 7 day Supply Wholesale
WHOLESALE PRICES ARE NOW AT HIGHEST POINT
Source: Cox Automotive
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
MY 2017 Retail and Wholesale Price Indices (wk1=100)
2019 Retail Index 2020 Retail Index 2019 Wholesale Index 2020 Wholesale Index
SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS
April 5th June 28th
Source: Cox Automotive
COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS
• Leads on Autotrader were up 52% y/y in June through Saturday and on Kelley Blue Book up 45%
• Dealer.com continues to see both New and Used Vehicle Form Submissions outperform, but used lost momentum over the weekend
• Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 11% y/y last week, which was a declining trend and weakest y/y performance since early May
• Xtime saw a 15% decrease y/y last week in consumers having their cars serviced, which was a decline from the prior week
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