jordan, et al., 2011; annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371
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Jordan, et al., 2011; http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371
Forum on the L'Aquila verdict Friday 10/02/2012 1-2pm - room ISTB4-240
School of Earth and Space ExplorationArizona State University
ppt collection by JR Arrowsmith
Accumulated linksOperational Earthquake Forecasting – State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization - ICEF report http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371
News reports:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/20121022151851442575.html http://www.livescience.com/24173-laquila-earthquake-manslaughter-verdict-condemned.html Tom Jordan gave a very good interview on NPR: http://www.npr.org/2012/10/23/163499530/italian-seismologists-convicted-of-manslaughter Time Magazine: http://world.time.com/2012/10/24/the-aquila-earthquake-verdict-where-the-guilt-may-really-lie/
Scientific journal and blog commentary:Nature: http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html Trembling Earth blog: http://tremblingearth.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/conviction-of-italian-seismologists-a-nuanced-warning/ Highly Allochthonous blog: http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2009/04/foreshocks-and-aftershocks-of-the-italian-earthquake/
Statements:Joint statement from the British Royal Society and National Academy of Sciences: http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/news/2012_10_25_Joint_Statement_NAS-RS_Italian_Earthquake_Scientists.html AAAS had issued a statement earlier in the trial - and they may be considering an update: http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2010/media/0630italy_letter.pdf AGU, GSA and EGU have released statements: http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-46.shtml http://www.geosociety.org/news/pr/12-76.htm http://www.egu.eu/inside-egu/divisions-and-present-officers/division-seismology/home.html
Some papers and reports
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/jb1112/2011JB008352/2011JB008352.pdfEERI report on the earthquake: https://www.eeri.org/site/images/lfe/pdf/laquila-eq-report.pdf…there are many more
Felt reports of L’Aquila main shock
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http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2009/04/foreshocks-and-aftershocks-of-the-italian-earthquake/
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Spatial and temporal evolution of the foreshock sequence
Chiaraluce, et al. The anatomy of the 2009 L’Aquila normal fault system… JGR, 2011
Serial cross sections through the seismicity show activation of mostly west dipping Appenine/Abruzzo faults
probabilistic seismic hazard map for Italy: ground acceleration with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
Time independent earthquake forecast for Italy based on instrumental and historic seismicity and paleoseismology.
Jordan, et al., 2011; http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371
Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting
Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/
OEF (10:20-11:50):-Continual updating of authoritative information about future occurrence of potentially damaging earthquakes-The officially sanctioned dissemination of this information to enhance earthquake preparedness in threatened communities
Earthquake probabilities-Probabilities of large earthquakes (even in areas of high seismicity) are low <<1%/day-High gain-low probability situations (100-1000x)
Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting
Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/
L’Aquila (12:40-14:20)-probability of a false alarm > failure to predict (100x)-seismic activity had increased probability of a large event by ~100x-Scientists snookered into addressing a simple yes-no question (“will we be hit by a large earthquake?”)-Reassuring statements widely interpreted to be an anti-alarm
Lessons of L'Aquila for Operational Earthquake Forecasting
Presented by Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC http://www.seismosoc.org/italy/
Recommendations (14:20-16:49)-Separate role of scientific advisors (objective information about natural hazards) from that of civil decision makers (weigh benefits of protective actions with costs of false alarms, other political considerations)-Use probabilistic rather than deterministic statements in characterizing short term changes in seismic hazards (e.g. meteorological community)
Membership:
Dr. Terry Tullis, ChairBrown University
Dr. Ramon ArrowsmithArizona State University
Dr. Nick BeelerUSGS, Menlo Park, California
Dr. David JacksonUniversity of California, Los Angeles
Dr. Bruce ShawColumbia University
Dr. William EllsworthUSGS, Menlo Park, California
Dr. Evelyn RoeloffsUSGS, Vancouver, Washington
Dr. John VidaleUniversity of Washington
Dr. Andrew Michael USGS, Menlo Park, California
Dr. Allan Rubin Princeton University
Roland Burgmann University of California, Berkeley
Dr. Bill Leith, Co-chair, ex officio Senior Science Advisor for Earthquake and Geologic Hazardsand Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards ProgramUSGS, Reston, Virginia
Dr. Michael Blanpied, Executive SecretaryAssociate Coordinator, Earthquake Hazards ProgramUSGS, Reston, Virginia
Also, CEPEC: California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council
statement regarding California’s Immunity from Liability for Earthquake Predictions
955.1. The science of earthquake prediction is developing rapidly and, although still largely in a research stage, such predictions are now being initiated and are certain to continue intothe future… It is the intent of this legislation to ensure that such actions are taken in the public interest by government agencies acting in a responsible manner without fear of consequent financial liabilities.
-from John Parrish, California State Geologist
statement regarding California’s Immunity from Liability for Earthquake Predictions
The state and its agencies and employees shall not be liable for any injury resulting from the issuance or non-issuance of a warning pursuant to this subdivision or for any acts or omissions in fact gathering, evaluation, or other activities leading up to the issuance or non-issuance of a warning.
-from John Parrish, California State Geologist
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