jan haverkamp. branduolinė baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos

THE BALTICNUCLEAR

PHASE-OUT

Risks and Chances

Ir. Jan HaverkampGreenpeace

EU policy campaigner dirty energy

jan.haverkamp@greenpeace.org

Nuclear Baltics

Nuclear Phase-outVISAGINAS• No investors – KEPCO out• LV, EE, PL interest doubtful• No financiers• 3500 – 4500 €/kWe

BELARUS• Finances will be difficult• Public and international resistance

KALININGRAD• Largest chance• Strategic investor?• Does Germany dare?

Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Safety

VISAGINAS• Design?• EIA: too low source term• Regulatory (in)experience• Skills

BELARUS• Near Vilnius• Design?• Regulatory inexperience

KALININGRAD• No public scrutiny• No international EIA• No EU regulatory standard

Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Security

VISAGINAS• Design?• Political long term stability?

BELARUS• Political instability?

KALININGRAD• German nationalist extremism?• Cold war?• Vulnerability grid

Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Waste

VISAGINAS• Legacy Ignalina• No suitable underground• No suitable technique• Lack of stable financial structures• Nothing in EIA

BELARUS• Idem

KALININGRAD• Idem• Transports to Russia

Risks of Nuclear Baltics – Energy Security

VISAGINAS• No proper Energy Strategy based on scenario comparison• Danger of stop on development until on-line• Danger of coming in saturated market – threatening RE inv.• Inflexible grid development• Barrier to RE development• Dependence on nuclear fuel politically unstable countries• Lack of sufficient back-up

BELARUS and KALININGRAD• Idem

Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Economics

VISAGINAS• 3500 – 4500 €/kWe• FOK – increasing costs and construction time• Regulatory inexperience• Too high debt for country• Lack of means for RE and EE

BELARUS• Too high state debt

KALININGRAD• Russian political weapon

• Price• Participation strat. inv.

Advantages of Nuclear Baltics

none

except for short term interests nuclear elite

Chances of a Nuclear-free Baltics

Potentials

www.inforse.org/europe/VisionBaltic.htm

Energy Security• No dependency on foreign fuel• Decentralised technology – no large scale disruption• More spread ownership

Economics• Long term: lower costs• More employment• Spread financial risks

Chances of a Nuclear-free Baltics

Policy Needs Now• Get realistic: stop nuclear plans • Work out different energy policy scenarios• Re-focus human and financial capacity to EE and RE• Social-economic plan for Ignalina / Visaginas Region• Full transparency in the debate (Aarhus / ACN process)

jan.haverkamp@greenpeace.org

Thank youfor yourattention