iraq war- 2003
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INTRODUCTION
NOSTRADAMUS
LIQUID
OIL
“ EITHER YOU ARE WITH US OR AGAINST US.
THERE IS NOTHING IN BETWEEN
PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSHPOST 9/11 ADDRESS TO NATION
AXIS OF EVIL
IRAQ
IRAN
N KOREA
INTERNATIONAL FORUMS UNITED NATIONS - FRAGMENTED.
EUROPEAN UNION - DIVIDED.
NATO - FRACTURED.
NAM
OIC
ARAB LEAGUE
OPEC
G-8
IRRELEVANT
OPERATION IRAQI
FREEDOM
SHOCK & AWE
?
OPERATION IRAQI
FREEDOM
PREVIEW PART I – HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.
PART II – AMERICAN DESIGNS FOR WAR.
PART III – OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM.
PART IV – ROLE AND RELEVANCE OF UNITED NATIONS.
PART V - IRAQ CRISIS – AN INDIAN PERSPECTIVE.
PART I
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
MESOPOTAMIAN CIVILIZATION (5000 BC).
OTTAMAN EMPIRE.
TRIBAL IRAQ - AUTONOMOUS.
PERIMETER OF IRAQ 3650 KMS.
COASTLINE 60 KMS.
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
BRITISH RULE – A HASHEMITE MONARCHY
(1921 – 1958).
DECADE OF COUP / COUNTER COUPS.
THE BAATH PARTY (1968).
• 1937 - BORN ( TIKRIT ).
• 1956 - JOINED BAATH PARTY.
• 1959 - FLED TO EGYPT.
• 1963 - RETURNED TO BAGHDAD.
• 1979 - BECAME THE PRESIDENT OF IRAQ.
• 2003 - MISSING IN ACTION
WILL HE RETURN ???
SADDAM “THE ONE WHO CONFRONTS”
IRAN – IRAQ WAR(1980 – 1988)
KUWAIT – IRAQ RELATIONSHIP.
19TH PROVINCE OF IRAQ ??
KUWAIT IRAQ - RELATIONSHIP
OPERATION DESERT STORM
16 JAN – 27 FEB 1991
NO FLY ZONES
NATURAL RESOURCES
PETROLEUM.
NATURAL GAS.
PHOSPHORUS.
SULPHUR.
DEMOGRAPHY TOTAL POPULATION – 24 MILLION.
A MULTI – ETHNIC SOCIETY.
SHIA ARABS – 60 %
SUNNI ARABS – 15%
KURDS – 20 %
OTHERS – 5%
RELIGION - ISLAM.
MIDDLE EAST REGIONMIDDLE EAST REGION
PART II
AMERICAN DESIGNS FOR WAR
BUILD UP TO THE WAR
THE SEPTEMBER 11 LINK.
WAR AGAINST TERRORISM.
AXIS OF EVIL.
9/11
“WE ARE GOING TO FIND OUT WHO DID THIS AND WE ARE GOING TO KICK HIM”
IDEOLOGICAL ENEMYAL - QAIDAAL - QAIDA
COERCIVE DIPLOMACY
UN RESOLUTIONS
IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS.
DESTRUCTION OF WMD.
RESTRICTING MILITARY CAPABILITY.
PROHIBIT SALE AND PURCHASE OF ARMS.
OIL FOR FOOD PROGRAMME.
SIMULTANEOUS BUILD UP IN GULF SINCE SEP 02
FINAL BUILD UP
NON COMPLIANCE OF RESOLUTION 1441.
SEC UN RESOLUTION SEEKING USE OF FORCE.
MOBILISATION OF FORCES IN GULF SINCE SEP 02.
UN RESOLUTION NOT NECESSARY TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION.
THE AMERICAN AGENDA
• POLITICALPOLITICAL
• SECURITYSECURITY
• ECONOMICECONOMIC
POLITICAL AGENDA
REGIME CHANGE .
MIDDLE EAST REGIONMIDDLE EAST REGION
POLITICAL AGENDA
LIBERATION OF IRAQI PEOPLE .
IMPERIALISTIC DESIGNS .
SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS
WMDWMD
TERRORISM
ISRAELI CONNECTION
ARIEL SHARON
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
CONTROL OF ENERGY RESOURCES(OIL)
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
(= $VERSUS
EURO DOLLAR
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
WEAKEN OPEC.
EUROPEAN UNION
PART III
OPERATION IRAQI
FREEDOM
FORCE LEVELSCOALITION FORCES.
• THREE LAKHS TROOPS - AB-FORCES, MARINES AND SPECIAL
FORCES.
• KURD FIGHTERS.
• M1 ABRAM TANKS.
• BRADLEY FIGHTING VEHICLES.
• AH64 APACHE ATTACK HELICOPTERS.
• F117 STEALTH BOMBERS.
• B1,B2 AND B52 BOMBERS.• AIR CRAFT CARRIERS AND OTHER NAVAL SHIPS.• HI-TECH WEAPONARY
IRAQI FORCES
• FOUR LAKHS TROOPS.• ELITE REPUBLICAN GUARDS.• PARA MILITARY FORCES.• FIDAYEENS.• FOUR THOUSAND ARTY GUNS .• T-72 TANKS.• SCUD MISSILES.• VINTAGE SOVIET ERA WEAPONS.
AMERICAN MILITARY STRATEGY
SHOCK
&
AWE
SIMULTANIETY OF OPERATIONS
DOUBLE PINCERDOUBLE PINCER
CAPTURE OF BAGHDAD
SUSTAINED BOMBING.
SPRINT TO BAGHDAD.
(CAPTURE OF AIRPORT)
FALL OF SADDAMFALL OF SADDAM
FIRDOS SQUAREFIRDOS SQUARE
LOOT & ANARCHYLOOT & ANARCHY
FALL OF SADDAMFALL OF SADDAM
FIRDOS SQUAREFIRDOS SQUARE
PROPAGANDA WAR
WESTERN MEDIA.
JOKER IN THE PACK
HI-TECH WAR
TOMAHAWK MISSILES
COST $ 1 MILLIONCOST $ 1 MILLION
HI-TECH WAR• B 52 BOMBERS.B 52 BOMBERS.
– COST. $ 1.3 BILLION.
• F16 FALCON AIRCRAFT.
– COST $20 MILLION
APACHE HELICOPTER
COST $ 4 MILLIONCOST $ 4 MILLION
MI ABRAM TANK$ 4.3 MILLION
M2 BRADELEY (TROOP CARRYING VEHICLE)
$ 3.2 MILLION$ 3.2 MILLION
30,000 SORTIES.
2000 AIRCRAFT.
20,000 TONNES EXPLOSIVES
14,000 PGMs
LETHAL ARMADA
HI-TECH BLASTERS
• BAT.
• JDAM.
• BLU-114B.
• CBU-97.
• TANK BUSTER.
ECONOMICS OF WAR
• LIBERATION OF IRAQ-$ 75 BILLION-$1.6 TRILLION.
• 1% TO 2 % OF US GDP.• GULF WAR I - 80% COST BORNE BY
ALLIES.• US PROFIT - $ 20 BILLION.• OIL BILL FOR US - $ 10 PER BARREL
INCREASE RAISES US TAX TO $ 100 BILLION.
RECONSTRUCTION• OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM TO COST $ 75 BILLION.
• COST OF RECONSTRUCTION - $ 20 TO $100
BILLION.
• CUMULATIVE COST - $ 100 TO $150 BILLION.
USA’S POST WAR PLANUSA’S POST WAR PLAN
• DEVELOPMENT OF PORTDEVELOPMENT OF PORT• ROADSROADS - 5,000 KM.- 5,000 KM.• POWER .POWER .• AIR LINKS.AIR LINKS.• HOSPITALS HOSPITALS - 300.- 300.• SCHOOLS - 5,000.SCHOOLS - 5,000.• HOUSESHOUSES - 25,000- 25,000..
BUDGET
• IMMEDIATE HUMANITARIAN AID - $ 2.5 BILLION.
• ANNUAL COST OF PEACE KEEPING - $25 BILLION.
• REBUILDING INFRASTRUCSTURE - $ 75 BILLION.
PART IV
ROLE AND RELEVANCE
OF
THE UNITED NATIONS
AIM : UNITED NATIONS
TO MAINT INTERNATIONAL PEACE.
TO SETTLE DISPUTES PEACEFULLY.
TO AVOID THREAT / USE OF FORCE AND ESCHEW INTERFERENCE EXCEPT WHEN AUTHORISED BY THE SECURITY COUNCIL.
IRAQ CRISIS
WHERE DOES UN STAND ???
IRAQ CRISIS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF RESOLUTION.
LARGER US AGENDA FOR WAR NOT FULFILLED.
MOCKERY OF SECURITY COUNCIL ???
FUTURE ROLE OF UN IN IRAQ
GRANTING LEGITIMACY TO IRAQI REGIME.
REMOVAL OF SANCTIONS.
HUMANITARIAN ROLE .
PEACEKEEPING.
FUTURE OF THE UN
???
“THERE IS NO UNITED NATIONS. THERE IS
AN INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT OCCASIONALLY CAN BE LED BY THE ONLY SUPERPOWER IN THE WORLD THAT IS UNITED STATES. WHEN THE UNITED STATES LEADS THE UNITED NATIONS WILL FOLLOW”.
John Bolton, US Under Secretary of State
Global Structure Convocation, 1994
FUTURE OF THE UN DEPENDS ON THE ATTITUDE OF THE US.
US NEVER HESITATED TO USE ‘VETO’ TO FURTHER THEIR OWN NATIONAL INTERESTS.
US HAS SUPPLANTED THE UN ITSELF.
RELEVANCE OF UN
THE UNITED NATIONSOR
UNITED NATIONS OF UNITED STATES
FUTURE STATUS OF UN
?
ASSESSMENT OF GULF WAR II
ADVERSE REACTION IN ISLAMIC WORLD
REACTIONS IN IRAQ
AMERICAN DOMINANCE IN 21st CENTURY
EMERGENCE OF NEW WORLD ORDER.
HISTORY IS SHAPED NOT JUST BY THE EVENT ITSELF BUT HISTORY IS SHAPED NOT JUST BY THE EVENT ITSELF BUT MORE BYTHE EXTENT & FORCE OF ITS AFTER EFFECTSMORE BYTHE EXTENT & FORCE OF ITS AFTER EFFECTS
UNI-POLAR WORLD
INDO – US EQUATION
REALISIM, NOT RHETORIC, SHOULD GOVERN REALISIM, NOT RHETORIC, SHOULD GOVERN INDIA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH USAINDIA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH USA
COOPERATION IN
MILITARY FIELDS
MILITARY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
WARS OF PRE-EMPTION
PROACTIVE INTERDICTION
MILITARY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
• ICBMs.
• SLBMs.
• AIRCRAFT CARRIERS.
• ANTI MISSILE SYSTEMS.
• AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS.
• AIR POWER.
• MILITARY SATELLITES.
MILITARY IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
• GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEMS.
• PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS.
• NIGHT FIGHTING CAPABILITIES.
• COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS.
CONCLUSION
• INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM.
• POLITICAL INSTABILITY.
• INTERVENTION IN KASHMIR.
• WARS OF PRE-EMPTION
• CREDIBLE DETERRENT MILITARY CAPABALITY.
• STATE OF THE ART TECHONOLOGY.
• ECONOMICALLY STRONG.
• IDEOLOGICAL STRAITJACKET.
• STABILITY & PROSPERITY AT HOME.
• INTERNATIONAL PRE-EMINENCE.
CONCLUSION
?
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