ipv6 impact study
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IPv6 impact study Global IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
IPv6 impact study
Global IPv6 Summit 2007Guadalajara - Mexico
15-17 November 2007
Fabrice Clari, ZaltanaFabrice.Clari@zaltana.fr
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
European Policy actions
2002 Communication from the Commission "Next Generation Internet – priorities for
action in migrating to the new Internet protocol IPv6“
2002-now Projects support (€90 millions)
2006 Public consultation: “Hurdle and triggers deployment of IPv6 technology”
Meeting with the Defense market stakeholders Meeting with the Media and Telecom stakeholders International conference on “Convergence: new opportunities to accelerate the
IPv6 momentum” – Vienna
IPv6 global summit – Cannes Launch of a study: “Impact of IPv6 over vertical sectors”
This presentation doesnot represent an
official presentation fromthe European Commission
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Methodology
Sector-based approach (15)
Desk research
45+ interviews conducted
Case studies
Expert group involved (IPv6 and sectors
experts)
Web surveys (ISP and users)
Methodology development
Datacollection Analysis Study
report Dissemination
Central Government Education Defence Media/Entertainment: Gaming Media/Entertainment: Television Consumer Tourism Service operators Automotive transportation Collective Transportation Health Buildings Public safety Finance Logistics
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Special note
Considerations shown in thispresentation initially target Europe …
...but can be easily extendedto any other region !!!
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Extend of the problem (1/2)
World population
Internet usage
Internet services
Available IPv4 addresses
So.... ?IPv6 should
already be widelyused... but is not!
Multiple issues aredriving the non-
adoption of IPv6...
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Extend of the problem (2/2)
IPv4: 3.7 billion publicaddresses
Wordwide population is6.5 billion persons
Mainly developingcountries will be impacted
Europe should notbother: RIPNCC hasenough IPv4 addresses toaddress long-termEuropean needs
NOAddresses pool managed at
a global level
IPv4 exhaustion is goingto be a worldwide issue
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
IPv4 addresses depletion
Until May 2007, diverging estimates betweenexperts for IPv4 address pool shortfall
Agreement since 8 May:
Exhaustion of IANA and RIR IPv4addresses pools forecasted for
2010-2011
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Need for a larger address space
NAT is a workaround which works but: NAT breaks the end to end model Increase network management and software dev. costs
Allocation mechanism not clearly understood (e.g. there is no pre-allocation)
Problem drivers (1/2)
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Problem drivers (2/2)
Lack of understanding Bad wording for IPv6 integration Most of universities do not teach IPv6 as they should New staff is required for IPv6 integration Everybody is waiting for the IPv6 killer app No identified business model « Never touch a working system » golden rule
Expertise required Integrating IPv6 is not a simple power-on But requires careful planning and staff expertise
Does not solve all the issues of the today Internet
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
IPv6 impact on vertical sectors
15 sectors analyzed Qualitative and quantitative description of each sector Sector specificities IT applications in the sector Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) to
integrate IPv6 Adoption scenario
Central Government Education Defense Media/Entertainment: Gaming Media/Entertainment: Television Consumer Tourism Service operators
Automotive transportation Collective Transportation Health Buildings Public safety Finance Logistics
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: phone and media (1/2) - Overview
Market situation: gigantesque revenues! IP phone market: $300 million (2005) with high growth Gaming global market: $21 billion (2003) with high growth in
mobile and MMORPG IPTV subscribers in Europe : 21 million TV (2010) $5.1 billion
Market trends: new business paradigms Convergence of devices
Handle device: mobile phone + console + PDA + MP3player Smart phones
Living room devices: Audio-video system + console +Internet router + TV decoder + phone setop boxes
Content distribution: anywhere, anytime! Content creation: from everyone to anyone!
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: phone and media (2/2) - SWOT
Strengths big market IPv6 more efficient than IPv4 gaming and multimedia (IPTV, Joost-like) applications
Weaknesses no killer application Important application: VoIP - mainly uses IPv4 Intense competition: IPv6 is considered as a cost because of the short
term ROI obligations
Opportunities P2P games creativity enhanced by IPv6
Threats Business model of telecom operators / content providers have to be
reviewed Control over the content could be more complex
Enormous potential but still skeptical
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: defense (1/2) - Overview
Some figures: Defense expenditures = 2% GDP, $193 billion for EU-25 1,875 million employees (25% civil) R&D in ICT = €2.2 billion
Market specificities: Government investments Long system life cycle anticipation Security sensible
IPv6 oriented policy: USA (DoD) French Army German Army
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: defense (2/2) - SWOT
Strengths IPv6 is a enabler to achieve superiority in the cyberspace IPv6 integration will happen in a reasonable period of time IPv6 is perceive as stable industry appears to be ready (regular products are IPv6-capable with no extra
cost)
Weaknesses Lack of experts Defense sector is not big enough to be a driver
Opportunities opportunities to re-design in a more optimal way opportunity to go directly to the next generation some EU member states have plans for IPv6 integration
Threats procurement is the main instrument potential unforeseen cost detected later
Planned transition in a limited market
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: education (1/2) - Overview
Sector specificities: Administrative processes 93 million students in Europe ICT penetration very low in some segments (depends on the country
and on the type of schools) Projects at a global level (Asia-Africa-America-Europe)
Different roles: ICT consumer ICT developer ICT educator
IPv6 policy: Depends on the ICT manager Few universities or schools are ready in Europe
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: education (2/2) - SWOT
Strengths universities are non-profit: experimentations can be done « easily » need IPv6-ready infrastructure to participate in international research
projects
Weaknesses no special funding no interest for most university disciplines
Opportunities universities can enhance cooperation with:
• private sectors• other universities in foreign countries
IPv6 can drive ICT penetration
Threats bad guidance/lack of plan: higher costs and small impact
Important sector at the education level: show good practices
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: transportation (1/2) - Overview
Market description: diverse, huge and global Automotive: 300 million cars in Europe Airplanes: passengers & fret Fret: Trucks, ships and rail Global market with strong lobbies
ICT development: Road: Intelligent Transportation System (I.T.S.) Air Traffic Management Tracking and parcel localization E-access everywhere
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: transportation (2/2) - SWOT
Strengths Car manufactures are electronics-oriented to differ themselves from
competitors Mobility and large address scope
Weaknesses Time response Infrastructure cost
Opportunities Telematics enforced by European regulations IP convergence and new services
Threats Privacy issues Multimedia services brings new source of distraction to drivers
Large sector but competing proprietary protocols
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: buildings (1/2) - Overview
Market description: 3 segments Home segment: appliances, control and limited sensor networks Industry segment: huge sensor networks Tertiary segments: huge sensor networks + applications (voice,
data, video)
Specificities: diverse, huge and long to penetrate Residential segment: cost sensitive and long to penetrate due to
the market structure Long value chain from the R&D to the end-user Long product life cycle (over 10 years for some products)
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Sector: buildings (2/2) - SWOT
Strengths Reduce complexity thanks to interoperability
Weaknesses The market does not exist yet Proprietary protocols are more profitable
Opportunities Sustainable development Energy saving activities New competitive techniques (6LowPan) Long product life cycle anticipation
Threats Entrance of new players in this sector New business models to develop
An overestimated market that is finally taking off?
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
The special case of ISPs
Internet Service Provider
Revenue : bandwidth
Revenue : services
IPv6 to support the transition from bandwidthprovisioning to service provisioning
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Cross-sectors SWOT results
Large address space
Easier development
Mobile & multicastfeatures
IPv4 works
Existence ofcompetitive standards
Do not fulfill alltechnical
requirements
Product life cycle forsome sectors
Globalization andstandardization trend
« all over IP »requires a largeraddress scope
Change establishedbusiness models
Change the networkmanagement model
Raise security andprivacy issues
MotivatorsChallenges
Counter arguments
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Adoption scenario
IP addresses
Level of confidence
UncertainPlanned Considered
Massive
Important
Limited
Phone & Media(TV, games)
Buildings
Defense
Banking
Transportation
Health & CentralGovernment
Education
Logistics &Public Safety
Tourism
First deployments foreseen by 2010-2012
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Potential evolution if nothing is done
Momentum to IPv6 is low End of IPv4 public addressed availability is close
2010 2011 2015+
Demand surge: panic tosafeguard infrastructure
Avoidance ofconsumption: company are
moving to alternate solutions(NAT...)
Effort to delayexhaustion point: update of
the allocation process criteria
Scenario before exhaustiondate
Options to extend IPv4 Internet
Trading of IPv4 addressesspace: IT market distortion and
increase of the digital divide
Maintenance of the IPv4Internet: increase of maintenance
costs and make future IPv6 integrationharder
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
The only viable solution
Integration of IPv6is the only viable solution…
First IPv6 RFC submitted in 1995
Huge amount of R&D, standardisation,
integration… made up to now
No competing alternative in a short term
…to ensure business continuity !
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
If Europe is a late IPv6 adopter?
Reasons for acting
Do not miss potential spill-over!Prevent coordination failures!
Technologyspill-over
ICT innovation : 40% of EU labourproductivity growth in the second half 1990s
Innovation in vertical sectors
Marketspill-over
Europe : 20% of world ICT supply WW IT service market: €560 billions
Exploit IPv6 European expertise
Coordinationfailures
IPv6 is a chicken-egg issue. Support EU development policies
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Objectives of an EC action
General objectives
Support EC policies• Lisbon agenda• i2010• Single EU information space• etc...
Specificobjectives
Ensure business continuity ofEuropean organisations
Exploit European expertise
Ensure Europeans citizens andorganisations will benefit from
state of the art innovations
Operationalobjectives
Availability of IPv6connectivity
Made IT managersaware of the IPv6
situation
IPv6 integration tobe safe
Pool of trainedpeople
Exploitation ofthe European
expertise
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Policy options
3 policy options identified:
Option 1: let the things on their own way
Option 2: coordinate integration
Option 3: law enforcement
Impacts analysis made (Economic / Social / Environmental)
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
European economic impacts (1/2)
Direct costs of IPv6 integration
Network upgrade on ISPs side Core: Mostly compatible thanks to depreciation renewal cycle Edge: Still to be invested Software upgrades Staff training Installation & testing
Users May keep IPv4 for internal use Get prepared to IPv6
NO CAPEX for non IPv6compliant goods
Dual stack v4/v6 maintenance Shorten the global transitionperiod as much as possible
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
European economic impacts (2/2)
Economic benefits of IPv6 adoption
Business-continuity ICT solutions: 40% of EU labour productivity growth Europe:20% of ICT World supply
Prevent market distortion
Being a first-mover gives a clear competitive advantage Europe was in good position strong pressure from Japan, Korea, China and USA
Develop new services Services = 2/3 of employment and value creation IT services market = €560 billions WW
Simplify the task of ISP to track and record the Internet connection(mandatory in some countries)
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Synthesis of options
Option 1 (do nothing scenario) No real move observed Risk of last minute panic Extra-costs
– Long transition period– Last minute CAPEX
Option 2 (coordinate integration) Large scope of possible actions Avoid forced investments: Still time to get IPv6 within renewal cycle
Option 3 (law enforcement) ~Guaranteed results for connectivity availability Extra-costs
– Early renewals (+285% increase by year)– Administrative overhead for implementation and control
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Actions recommendations (1/3)
Ensure common availability of IPv6 connectivity in Europe Make sure ISPs are made aware of the IPv6 situation Monitor progress Support Ripe-NCC in applying IPv6 oriented policies. Encourage good communication campaigns around RIPE-NCC actions, as
has been done by APNIC and ARIN
Encourage use of IPv6 in public procurement making use of financialinstruments such as structural funds.
Ensure all European IT managers are made aware of the IPv6situation Large communications campaign associated with a Communication Implement a ‘road-show’ in ISP and large industries IT services
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Actions recommendations (2/3)
Ensure IPv6 integration is made secure Support ENISA for monitoring of security issues related to IPv6, in particular
during the integration phase. Ensure the presence of a European alertnetwork.
Support ETSI for maintenance of existing standards and integration ofemerging ones
Ensure existence of a sufficient pool of trained people Available documentation is abundant but often outdated or incomplete.
Create a reliable,, complete, and objective resource directory Encourage universities and schools to incorporate IPv6 in the programs. Set-up training campaigns focused on ‘training the trainers’, making use of the
expertise developed in GEANT2 and the most advanced NREN.
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Actions recommendations (3/3)
Encourage proper exploitation of European expertise Launch an opportunity detection program with universities and research
institutes to increase the European deal-flow associated with IPv6 opportunities Launch a communication campaign within the financing community Give preference to European vendors in public procurement
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Web survey results (1/4)
A web survey has been launched to identify positioning of Internet ServiceProviders (ISPs) and Internet users in respect with IPv6 integration; Main figures are presented in the two next slides.
ISP: services offerISP: geographical coverage
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Web survey results (2/4)
ISP: drivers for IPv6 adoption
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Web survey results (3/4)
ISP: details of IPv6 service offer
Inner circle: ISPs already proposing IPv6 connectivity; Outer circle: ISPs planning to provide IPv6 connectivity.
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Web survey results (4/5)
ISP: deployment plans
ISP: integration status
ISP: reason for non planning
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Web survey results (5/5)
Users: triggers for IPv6 adoption
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
Conclusions
Shortage of available public addresses is an inevitable result ofthe 4th version of the Internet Protocol
Large majority of analysed sectors
Are actively considering IPv6
Expect to start deployment by 2010-2012 , with IPv6 or otherif no competitive offer available
Europe has an opportunity to be a leader in the field butincreasing international pressure
A set of ‘soft measure’ to support IPv6 integration isrecommended
Immediate consideration of IPv6 integration has to beundertaken as this is the only way to minimize thecosts associated with this activity and to facilitate
the smooth transition of this integration tackling thekey issue of the address shortfall.
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
v6Proxy.com (1/2)
Zaltana is launching v6proxy.com, a new and free IPv6 adoption toolto enable IPv6 access on web servers only available through IPv4.
PSTN
v6proxy.com
InternetIPv6
IPv6 client
www.mysite.commysite.com is onlyconnected to the
IPv4 Internet
Internet
IPv4
IPv4-only client
v6Proxy.com provides atransparent mechanism to
end-user: the targetedwebsite keeps the samename (FQDN) for IPv4
and IPv6.
DNS records for mysite.com:IN AAAA www 2001:41d0:1:7973::9IN A www 12.23.34.56
v6Proxy.com receives HTTPrequest targeting mysite.com
and proxies them.
IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico
v6Proxy.com (2/2)
Available at http://www.v6proxy.com
In beta version until end of November 2007
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