international economics relations and thailand economic strategy updated 181212

20 2555

(1)

•

– (Globalization Process)

–

–

–

(Idle resources)

(2)

–

2543

(Transition period)

– (Sensitive)

(Improving Competitiveness)

Real Per Capita GDP 1993-2011

Per Capita GDP (at constant prices)

Per Capita GDP (at

constant

prices)

Per Capita GDP Growth 1994-2011

-

-

-

Per Capita GDP Growth (at constant prices)

Per Capita GDP Growth (at constant

prices)

•

(Import Substitution Policy)

(Export-led Growth Policy)

•

40 40

Trade to GDP ( constant price)

Potential Productivity Improvement

from Trade

• Efficiency Improvement: better utilization of

resources in the economy

• Technology Improvement: international

business is one of the mechanism lead to

technology transfers

• Economies of Scale: international trade allows

firms to realize benefits from scale buy

producing at a larger scale (moving down the

long-run marginal cost curve)

• (Host Country): Inflows of FDI

–

• (Home Country): Outflows of FDI

–

-

Net export

Investment

Government spending

Consumption

•

– Mode 4

– ( : Professional services)

•

–

•

Measuring Comparative Advantage

• Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)

[EXki/TEXi] / [EXkw/TEXw]

• Boston Model

• Diamond Model

• Constant Market Share (CMS)

– World Effect (Global effects)

– Market Effect (Regional/Country effects)

– Product effect

– Competitiveness effect

Boston’s Competitiveness Model

Export

Share

Export

Growth

High Share

Low Growth

High Share

High Growth

Low Share

Low Growth

Low Share

High Growth

2012GDP per

Capita(US$) Scores Ranking

Hong Kong 37,351 100 1

USA 37,691 97.755 2

Singapore 33,529 95.923 4

Malaysia 5,364 84.217 14

China 2,639 75.769 23

Japan 39,578 71.354 27

Thailand 2,698 69.001 30

India 837 63.596 35

Indonesia 1,206 59.499 42

Philippines 1,410 59.271 43

2004-2012

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012

USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

Singapore 2 3 3 2 2 3 3

Hong Kong 3 2 2 3 3 1 1

China 6 8 5 4 4 6 6

Malaysia 4 6 6 5 5 4 4

Japan 5 4 4 6 6 7 7

Thailand 7 5 8 9 7 8 8

India 8 9 7 7 8 9 9

South Korea 9 7 9 8 9 5 5

Philippines 10 10 10 10 10 11 11

Indonesia 11 11 11 11 11 10 10

•

•

•

•

•

–

–

• –

%

Advanced economies

Emerging and developing economies

: (IMF): 2010

C urrent Account B alances, U S$B n

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

D eveloping Asia + N IEs

U nited S tates

European U nion

Japan

: (IMF): 2010

•

(Public Debt)

–

–

• (Wealth) (Income) –

G- Advanced G- Emerging

Low Income

: Fiscal Affair Department Data, IMF

• 2007 607

12.5 GDP Roach, D. 2007)

•

–109% 1980

316% 2005 –140

2006 (Wolf 2007a)

• The Liquidity Pyramid – Global liquidity by source of Claim (2009)

Derivatives

Securitized Debt

BankLoansPowe

rMone

y

976% of World GDP

81% of Liquidity

145% of World GDP80% ofWorld GDP7% of

World GDP

12% of Liquidity

6% of Liquidity

1% of Liquidity

•(spot, forward, and swaps) 3.2

• (OTC) 2.1

(BIS 2007)

•(World trade volume) 12

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

• (Intra-

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Num

ber p

er y

ear

Cum

ulat

ive

num

ber

Chart 14

Number of physical RTAs that entered into force since 2000

Source: WTO Secretariat.

ASEAN Economic Integration

Chart II.2

ASEAN ‘Noodle Bowl’

Bloc-to-bloc or bloc-to-country Country-to-country Under negotiation

SAFTA = South Asian Free Trade Agreement; APTA = Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (previously known as Bangkok Agreement, negotiated under UN-ESCAP); BIMSTEC = Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (under negotiation); AFTA = ASEAN Free Trade Area; AEC = ASEAN Economic Community (under negotiation); Trans-Pacific SEP = Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement; NAFTA = North American Free Trade Agreement; TPP = Trans-Pacific Partnership (under negotiation)

Source: Data from Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Agreements Database (APTIAD, www.unescap.org/tid/aptiad/),

[July 2011]. Graphic adapted from an original by Mia Mikic. See Mikic, Mia (2009), ASEAN and Trade Integration, UN ESCAP Staff Working Paper 01/09, 8 April. Some agreements are not included.

NAFTA

TPP

APTA

BIMSTEC

SAFTA

EU

China Japan

EFTA

Australia New Zealand

Chile

Brunei

THAILAND

Malaysia

Indonesia

Laos

Ukraine

India

Bhutan

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Bangladesh

Afghanistan

Nepal

Rep. Korea

Maldives

Jordan

Qatar

Bahrain

Panama

US

Mexico Canada

Peru

Cambodia Myanmar

ASEAN

(AFTA, AEC)

Singapore

TRANS-PACIFIC

SEP

Philippines

Viet Nam

Chinese Taipei

Hong Kong, China

Macao, China

AEC 2015:

•(Single market and production base)

•(Improved regional

competitiveness)

•(Regional

economic development equity

•(Global integration)

( )

2548 2558 2568 2578 2588

60

10.3 12.3 15.0 18.0 20.4

65

7.3 8.3 10.5 13.1 15.2

80

1.3 1.7 2.0 2.9 3.8

•

•

•

•

•

CO2

39

?

?

Ethanol)

Biodeisel)

1.2.

3.4.5.

41

Supply)

•

•

•

Yield)

Demand)

•

•

- 2548 2550 2558 2568 2570

(

)

65.1 66.04 68.98 70.65 70.66

15-

59(

)

66.8 67.2 67.1 63.8 62.9

60

( )

10.4 10.8 14.2 21.2 22.7

72 73 75 77 na

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

• FTA

• ACFTA

TFP

--

--

-

50

•

•

• Social safety net

52

•

•

•(Physical Infrastructure) Soft Infrastructure ICT

•

•

•

FDI

•

•

• JTEPA