intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc)
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Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Climate Change (IPCC)
International Scientific Consensus and Climate Model Projections
OutlineOutline
The IPCC as an organizationWhat inputs do they use – review of some
global warming evidenceHow do they make models?What are the projections?Conclusion
IPCC - Why was it created?IPCC - Why was it created?“Human activities now occur on a scale that is starting to interfere with complex natural systems”“Climate change poses a serious challenge to policymakers”“Policymakers … need an objective source of the most widelyaccepted scientific, technical and socio-economic informationavailable about climate change”
“The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) established the IPCC in 1988. The Panel does not conduct new research or monitor climate-relateddata. Its mandate is to assess … peer-reviewed literature … to ensurea balanced reporting of viewpoints…”
All quotes from “Introduction to the IPCC” - http://www.ipcc.ch
IPCC OrganizationIPCC Organization
WG IScience
WG IIImpacts
WG IIIMitigation
Task Force on GHG
IPCC Bureau
IPCC Chair
IPCC ReportsIPCC Reports
First Assessment Report (1990) - Helped lead to work at Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit (1992) and UNFCCC
Second Assessment Report (1996) - Contributed to negotiations that lead to Kyoto Protocol (1997)
Third Assessment Report (2001) - Update concentratingon findings after 1995; looks at regional as well as globaleffects
Fourth Assessment Report – Due in 2007
IPCC ProcessIPCC Process
Approximately 1000 experts directly involved indrafting and revising the reports
About 2500 participate in the review process
IPCC authors are nominated by governments andinternational organizations, and represent universities,research centers, business and environmental groups from 120 countries
IPCC ProcessIPCC Process
“...(T)eams of lead authors are assembled … Every chapter team must represent a range of prevailingscientific-technical viewpoints and expertise, and ensure appropriate representation of experts from developing and developed countries …”
Energy BalanceEnergy Balance
“Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al.Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m2
Carbon BudgetCarbon Budget
C a rb o n e m is s io n s a n d u p ta k e s s in c e 1 8 0 0 (G t C )
1 8 0
1 1 0
1 1 5
2 65
14 0L a nd u se
ch an g e
F o ss il e m issio n s
At mo s p h er e
O ce a n s
T e r r e str ial
Watson, IPCC
Natural CONatural CO22 changes changes
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0100000200000300000400000
Age (years before present)
CO
2 (p
pm
v)
2100
Petit et al, Nature v.399 (6735), pp. 429-436. (1999) 2100
today
Methane FluctuationsMethane FluctuationsPetit et al, Nature v.399 (6735), pp. 429-436. (1999)
1500 ppbv(today)
Methane concentrations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0100000200000300000400000
Age (years before present)
CH
4 (
pp
bv
)
Probability distributionsProbability distributions
“Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming” T.M.L. Wigley and S.C.B. Raper20 JULY 2001 VOL 293 SCIENCE
Stop burning fossil fuels?Stop burning fossil fuels?
“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
Keep burning at same rate?Keep burning at same rate?
“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
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