intelligence and insight you can trust202.118.72.90/kuke/janes/16.pdf · title: slide 1 author:...

Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust

Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Evolution in Autonomy: Prospects for the

Deployment of a New Generation of Armed

UAVs

Caitlin Harrington Lee Aviation Correspondent, IHS Jane’s

Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3

Major themes

• Current state of U.S. military’s Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) fleet

• America’s view of the emerging strategic environment

• Advantages of a new generation of armed UAS versus manned platforms: Long Range Bomber as a Case Study

• The Pentagon’s Hedging Strategy: a cautious approach to armed UAS Development

• Autonomy as the Key to Armed UAS Development

• Limitations on Autonomous System Development

• Prospects for Future Deployment of next-generation UAS

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Armed UAS in theatre today

Lockheed Martin AGM-114 Hellfire Missile

Credit: Lockheed Martin

MQ-1 Predator armed with AGM-114 Hellfire Missile

Credit: US Air Force

Raytheon Multi-Spectral Targeting System, Credit: Raytheon

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USAF Orbits

Credit: Chart provided by USAF

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UAS Market Growth

Credit: Derrick Maple Credit: Derrick Maple

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Potential Benefits of Pursuing New UAS

• Take the human out of the cockpit

• Confluence of technology that allows it

• Possible price reduction

Credit: Chart provided by Boeing

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Strategic Environment

Credit: Chart provided by US Air Force Secretary Michael Donley

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AirSea Battle

SAMS

This mobile S-300 TEL has a 5P85T trailer with four missile canisters and is towed by a Ural 375

tractor unit

Credit: Christopher F. Foss

FIGHTERS

First confirmed flight of CAC J-20 (WS engines) on 11 January 2011

Credit; Jane’s Defence Weekly

CRUISE MISSILES

Growing Range of PLA Systems

Credit: CSBA

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What Happens When UAS Enter Contested

Airspace?

Boeing MQ-8B Fire Scout Wreckage in Libya

Credit: Libyan State TV

Russian Fighter Firing a Missile at Georgian UAV

Credit: Georgian MoD

Predator Hanging in Belgrade Museum

Credit: Dan Orlovic, public domain

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Next-generation Armed UAS Concepts:

Contemplating Operations in Contested Airspace

• US Air Force’s “Optionally Manned” long-range bomber

• US Navy’s Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and

Strike (UCLASS ) competition

• US Air Force’s Next Generation Remotely Piloted Vehicle

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Case Study:

Unmanned Bomber Advantages

• Range

• Payload

• Strike Capability

• Survivability

• Affordability

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“Optionally Manned”: A Cautious Approach

• Major debate about the limits of UAS autonomy:

Can an armed UAS safely and effectively operate

in airspace that is: Congested, Cluttered,

Contested, Connected and Constrained?

• Gen Schwartz says we’re not ready for a

commitment to an unmanned bomber

• Gen Cartwright says it’s time to go unmanned

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Pentagon’s Hedging strategy

• Long Range Bomber – optionally manned

(The “Age of the Sail”)

• UCLASS – still working out requirements

• Next Generation RPA – starting over

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Autonomy as a Key Enabler of a New

Generation of Armed UAS

• What is UAV autonomy?

• How can it enable operations in contested and

increasingly complex airspace?

• Specific concerns about trust in autonomy

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UAV Autonomy: Sheridan and Verplank

1 The computer offers no assistance: human must take all

decision and actions.

2 The computer offers a complete set of decision/action

alternatives, or

3 narrows the selection down to a few, or

4 Suggests one alternative, and

5 executes that suggestion if the human approves, or

6 allows the human a restricted time to veto before

automatic execution, or

7 executes automatically, then necessarily informs humans,

and

8 Informs the human only if asked, or

9 informs the human only if it, the computer, decides to.

10 The computer decides everything and acts autonomously,

ignoring the human.

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UAV Autonomy: A Multi-Dimensional Definition

Credit: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Autonomy Levels for Unmanned Systems Working Group

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Autonomy: Role in Armed UAS Operations

1. Speed: “Greater use of highly adaptable and flexibly autonomous systems and

processes can provide significant time-domain operational advantages over

adversaries who are limited to human planning and decision speeds” – USAF Science

and Technology Roadmap

2. Complexity: “Increasing speed, confusion and information overload of modern war

make human response inadequate; war has become “too complex for a human to

direct?” – MoD Report 211

“The competitive edge quite frankly…is in the cognitive power we can put into those

platforms to operate and inter-operate with each other without the intervention of a

human being. The leverage is probably going to be greatest on the cognitive side,

without people in them,” General James Cartwright, Vice Chairman, JCS

3. Cost Reduction: Manpower, Maintenance

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Autonomous Systems for UAS:

Prototyping Stages

RQ-170 Sentinel Credit: Jean Claude Marche

Boeing Phantom Ray Credit: Boeing

X-47B UCAS-D Credit: Northrop Grumman

General Atomics Predator C (Sea Avenger) Credit: General Atomics

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Killer Apps

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Concerns about “Trust in Autonomy”

US concerns: • Fratricide

• Mission reliability

International Concerns: • Laws of Armed Conflict

• Collateral Damage

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Verification and Validation Procedures

• “Essential for gaining certifiable trust and legal freedom

to field autonomous systems that can match or exceed

potential adversary capabilities.” – USAF Science and

Technology Roadmap

• Complexity of V&V

• Importance of “Spiral Testing”

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Outlook

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Questions?

Caitlin Harrington Lee

Aviation Correspondent, Americas Bureau, IHS Jane’s

CaitlinHarringtonLee@gmail.com

Huw Williams

Unmanned Systems Editor, Jane’s International Defence Review

Huw.Williams@janes.com