integrated water resources management in saskatchewan ... · syed mustakim ali shah1, saman...

➢ Fragmented water management according topolitical rather than catchment boundaries

➢Climate change: Uncertain water supply anddemand(Hassanzadeh et al., 2014; Nazemi & Wheater, 2014)

➢Structural limitations of existing WaterResources Management Models(Hosseini Safa, 2016)

➢Water allocation based on ‘first-in-time-first-in-right (FITFIR)’ system(Wenig et al., 2006)

➢ Food security: one of the major sources ofwater for irrigation(Pomeroy et al., 2009)

➢No basin-scale water management model isavailable which can simulate water allocationfrom Rocky mountains to Saskatchewan Delta.

Integrated Water Resources Management in Saskatchewan River Basin: Model Development and Scenario Analysis

Syed Mustakim Ali Shah1, Saman Razavi2 , Andrew Slaughter3 and Howard Wheater4

1 -M.Sc. Student, Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Email: mustakim.ali@usask.ca 2 -Assistant Professor, Email: saman.razavi@usask.ca 3 - Visiting Professor,

Email: andrew.slaughter@usask.ca 4 - Professor, Email: howard.wheater@usask.ca; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Canada

Study Background Process and Methodology

Preliminary Results Future Implications

The model, when fully developed, will provide the platform for Economic evaluation of

water management policy and uncertainty analysis of demand and supply

www.usask.ca/water

References1. Hassanzadeh, E., Elshorbagy, A., Wheater, H., & Gober, P. (2014). Managing water in complex systems: An integrated water resources model

for Saskatchewan, Canada. Environmental Modelling & Software, 58, 12-26.2. Hosseini Safa, H. (2016). Integrated Water Resources Management Modelling For The Oldman River Basin Using System Dynamics Approach:

A master’s thesis in Sustainable Environmental Management, University of Saskatchewan, Canada3. Labadie, J. W. (2006). MODSIM: decision support system for integrated river basin management.4. Nazemi, A., & Wheater, H. S. (2014). How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource

systems? Advances in water resources, 63, 131-142.5. Pomeroy, J. W., Fang, X., & Williams, B. (2009). Impacts of climate change on Saskatchewan's water resources. Centre for Hydrology,

University of Saskatchewan.6. Wenig, M. M., Kwasniak, A. J., & Quinn, M. S. (2006). Water under the bridge? The role of instream flow needs (IFNs) determinations in

Alberta’s river management. In Water: Science and Politics. Edited by H. Epp and D. Ealey. Proceedings of the Conference Held by the AlbertaSociety of Professional Biologists on March (pp. 25-28).

AcknowledgementsThe Authors deeply thankful to Dr. Howard Wheater, Professor, School of Environment and Sustainability; Dr. Amin A. Elshorbagy,Professor, Civil and Geological Engineering; Dr. James A. Kells, Professor, Civil and Geological Engineering; Dr. Patricia Gober,Professor, Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy and Leila Eamen, PhD Student, School of Environment andSustainability for their excellent guidance and enormous support during this research.

R² = 0.9892

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Mo

dsi

m A

lloca

tio

n (

mm

)

Irrigation Demand (mm)

Irrigation in Alberta

R² = 0.9991

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

WR

MM

Allo

cati

on

(m

m)

Irrigation Demand (mm)

Irrigation in Saskatchewan

R² = 1

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

WR

MM

Allo

cati

on

(cm

s)

Major Water Demand (cms)

Major Withdrawal in Saskatchewan

R² = 1

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Mo

dsi

m A

lloca

tio

n (

cms)

Major Water Demand (cms)

Major Withdrawal in Saskatchewan

Research Purpose

➢ A software package developed at ColoradoState University for river basin managementand decision support.(Labadie, 2006)

➢ Important Features: freeware, complex riverbasin configurations, conditional operatingrules, water rights and storage contracts,large number of priorities (1-5,000), scenarioanalysis and customization of MODSIM code.

➢Water allocation mechanism: network flowoptimization.

➢Longest continuously maintained river basinmanagement software package currentlyavailable.(Labadie, 2006)

The aim of this study is to integrate waterresources components across the entire SaskRBinto one modelling platform, in line with theaims of the Integrated Modelling Program forPrediction and Management of Change inCanada’s Major River Basins (IMPC), to facilitateIntegrated Water Resources Management(IWRM) in the basin.

R² = 0.9897

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Mo

dsi

m A

lloca

tio

n (

cms)

Major Water Demand (cms)

Major Withdrawal in Alberta

MODSIM Decision Support system

R² = 0.9992

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Mo

dsi

m A

lloca

tio

n (

mm

)

Irrigation Demand (mm)

Irrigation in Saskatchewan

MODSIM DSS

Credibility and Performance

Scenario Development &

Analysis

✓ Water Balance of the System✓ MODSIM and WRMM

Operations

Hydrometeorological Data

Physical & Operational Properties

System Reliability, Reversibility and Vulnerability

Future scenarios of hydro-climatechange and irrigation expansionfrom CCRN outputs

Metrics of the System’s

Performance

TransAlta

Model

Southern Tributaries

Model

Highwood

Diversion

Plan Model

SSR

Alberta

Model

SSR SK

Model

NSR

Model

Manitoba

Figure: MODSIM network structure with artificial nodes and links (Labadie, 2006)

549

551

553

555

557

559

Jan

/70

Jun

/71

No

v/7

2

Ap

r/74

Sep

/75

Feb

/77

Jul/

78

Dec

/79

May

/81

Oct

/82

Mar

/84

Au

g/8

5

Jan

/87

Jun

/88

No

v/8

9

Ap

r/91

Sep

/92

Feb

/94

Jul/

95

Dec

/96

May

/98

Oct

/99

Mar

/01

Au

g/0

2

Jan

/04

Ele

vati

on

(m

)

L.Dief_MODSIM L. Dief_WRMM

Oldman

Red Deer

Bow

Southern Tributaries Model

TransAlta Model

Highwood Diversion Plan Model

Source: Partners for The Saskatchewan River Basin

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1/0

7/2

8

1/0

7/3

0

1/0

7/3

2

1/0

7/3

4

1/0

7/3

6

1/0

7/3

8

1/0

7/4

0

1/0

7/4

2

1/0

7/4

4

1/0

7/4

6

1/0

7/4

8

1/0

7/5

0

1/0

7/5

2

1/0

7/5

4

1/0

7/5

6

1/0

7/5

8

1/0

7/6

0

1/0

7/6

2

1/0

7/6

4

1/0

7/6

6

1/0

7/6

8

1/0

7/7

0

1/0

7/7

2

1/0

7/7

4

1/0

7/7

6

1/0

7/7

8

1/0

7/8

0

1/0

7/8

2

1/0

7/8

4

1/0

7/8

6

1/0

7/8

8

1/0

7/9

0

1/0

7/9

2

1/0

7/9

4

1/0

7/9

6

1/0

7/9

8

1/0

7/0

0

Flo

w (

cms)

SSR Flow to Saskatchewan MODSIM WRMM

SSR

NSR