inspector jones (hub manager), matthew fielding (intelligence analyst) national community safety...
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Inspector Jones (Hub Manager) , Matthew Fielding (Intelligence Analyst)
National Community Safety Conference 2011 - 8th June 2011
Disrupting the Optimal Forager
Domestic Burglary Predictive Mapping
Disrupting the Optimal Forager
Content
Setting the scene
Original Concept and Operational Alterations
Implementation
Development from Original Output
Results
Future Developments
Problems Encountered and Conclusions
Contextual Map
Greater Manchester
Population: 2.6 million
Area: 496 m2
Ethnicity: 88.9% White, 6.5% S. Asian, 1.7% Black, 2.9% Other
Trafford
Population: 212,800
Area: 41 m2
Ethnicity: 89.7% White, 5.1% S. Asian, 2.3% Black, 2.9% Other
Ross and Pease (2007) discussed the possibility of predicting Burglaries based on the ‘Optimal Forager’ theory of offender patterns in an article entitled,
“In domestic burglary, for example, the danger of a further crime is greatest at the home of the original victim and spreads out to some 400 metres, but disappears over six weeks to two months … instead of mapping past events in the conventional way we should map the risk they generate for nearby homes, with the map being dynamic to reflect how the risk declines over time.”
The premise of this was:
Professor Ken Pease B.A., M.A., PhD. OBENick Ross
‘Predicting Where Lightening will Strike’
Original Concept
There were three main modifications made to the original study to implement the work into Trafford BCU more effectively
The time period of analysis of Burglaries was reduced from six weeks to three weeks.
Implementation of the coloured buffers to highlight diminishing risk over time
Introduction of a temporal aspect to the individual Burglary Predictive Risk areas
Operationalizing the Scientific Theory
Ross and Pease (2007):
“In domestic burglary, for example, the danger of a further crime is greatest at the home of the original victim and spreads out to some 400 metres, but disappears over six weeks to two months … instead of mapping past events in the conventional way we should map the risk they generate for nearby homes, with the map being dynamic to reflect how the risk declines over time.”
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TUEEvery day 00:00-04:00, Particularly 02:00-03:00Also 16:00-19:00 Friday and Monday
Original Theory vs Output
Community Safety Patrollers
Feedback and improvement
Evaluation
Initial idea and development
NPT’s Response Fixed Wing I99TFU RPU
Disseminated to
Feedback and improvement
Evaluation
Implementation
GMFRSDriving School
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• Risk around Stretford Metrolink is late morning.• Risk from Neighbouring Division every evening 20:00-22:00
Predictive Mapping Output
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Week Commencing
BDW Counts
Prior to Intervention Mean -1Stdev. -2Stdev. +1Stdev. +2Stdev. Since Intervention
Introduction Week of Risk Mapping
Trafford’s Divisional Trend
Cross Border Offending
Trafford saw 902 burglaries, 2nd lowest count across GMP
YTD 2009, Trafford saw a significant 26.6% decrease (1229 to 902 BDW)(GMP –9.8%, MSG BCU GMP saw an increase of 7%)
Results – 12 month review
Statistically Significant Reduction
£1.06m saved to potential victims (Home Office ave. cost of £3268 per BDW)
‘Dark Nights’ (Period of Clock Change)25/10/09 - 28/03/10 vs 31/10/10 -27/03/11
Trafford: 30% decrease 527 to 368 BDW GMP: 14% decrease 7884 to 7560 BDW
MSG BCU GMP: 8% increase 663 to 716 BDW
Average of 48% decrease in the target areas of Orange and Red (373 to 194 BDW)
Results
BDW Count Orange Red Yellow Blue Outside Total2009/10 139 234 218 159 479 1229
2010/11 66 128 141 97 470 902Change -52.5% -45.3% -35.6% -38.8% -1.9% -26.6%
Outside Predicted zone 38% due to insecurity
Prediction
Investigate the displacement of offences, which were seen in Trafford, to non-predicted areas.
Crime Prediction Intervention Intervention
On-Going Developments
Increased Guardianship of key areas using Partner and wider GMP resources
Improved intelligence via the endorsement of Stop and Search Forms/FIS Submissions
Utilising ARLS effectively
Shift Activity Submissions
Conclusion
Importance of Reading and Understanding the simplicity of the concept
Potential to understand weekly spikes
Focuses on Optimal Forager (highest volume offender)
Scientific approach to assist targeted use of resources (Internal and External)
Improved intelligence gathering and taskings
Non - Engagement
Utilizes current GMP mapping system
Minimal cost in current financial climate
Wallpaper
Questions and FAQ’s
Inspector Vincent Jones0161 856 7549vincent.jones@gmp.police.uk
Matthew Fielding0161 856 7593matthew.fielding@gmp.police.uk
traffordpredictivemapping@gmp.police.uk
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