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INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
GAOTRADE CO. LTD
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 0044 7799 357 425 gaotrade.co.ltd@gmail.com 1
EU Rice Euro/ton Ex Mill
USD/
MT
Euro
/ton
USD/
MT
Euro
/Mt
$ /Mt Euro
/Mt
15
Nov
2011
15
Nov
2011
12
Dec
12
Dec
13th
Nov
13th
Nov
ITALIAN Milled Rice 5 ex mill bulk cash Well milled 5 % max Broken ¾basis
Originario Round Japonica
700 705 575
Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm
755 760 702 560
Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm
650
Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm
875 880 660
Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm
1070 1070 740
INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm
620 630 560
Parboiled Baldo LG Jap
970 980 670
Parboiled INDICA Lg
710 720 645
Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain
360 380 370
Broken ½ grain
370 350
Rice Bran Row
150
Broken less ¼ sortex
330
Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria
715 558
EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65
EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30
Spain Blanco Japonica MG Sevilla
NA
Russian Rice Future Groat s G 1 Stock
Exchange 587 459
Soft Wheat ex Rouen
349 273
Maize ex Bordeaux
325 254
Durum Wheat France South port PLN
384 300
THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/M
T EURO/MT
USD/ MT
EURO/MT
$ /Mt Euro/
Mt
Thailand milled Long Grain Indica New Crop
Thai White Rice 100% B 630
600 565
Thai White Rice 5% 610
585 550
Thai OLD CROP White Rice 5 %
Na
Thai White Rice 10% 605
580 545
Thai White Rice 15% 600
575 540
Thai White Rice 25% 580
570 535
100 Broken A1 Super 550
545 495
Fragrant A1 Super 560
540 570
Parboiled milled rice 100% Whole long grain Sortexed
600
590 585
Hom Mali 92% Purity or Jasmine Rice Equiv 5% 1075
1075 1070
PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or
In Container FCL 20 “
$/MT
EURO/MT
$/MT EURO/
MT USD/M
T EURO/
MT
Irri 6 Milled
White Rice Long Grain 5 Sortexed Water polished
465
455 460
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
GAOTRADE CO. LTD
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 0044 7799 357 425 gaotrade.co.ltd@gmail.com 2
WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Brkn sortexed
450
WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM
435
WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn WMilled
410
WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Stndrd
400
WR LG 25 max standard Milling
395 385
100% Broken Sortexed Double polished 375
365 345
PK 386 Long Grain 2 %
Na
Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 970
990 1200
IRRI 9 Milled 2 %
720 715
ParBoiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD
445
Small Broken w m d sortexed 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption
NA
BASMATI D 98 with 2 % broken
860
INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag
EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt
Parboiled 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla
510
White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortexed DP 5
Kandla
520
WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla
500
WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla
430
Broken sortexed super PR 106 Kandla
NA
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP srtxd Kakinada 450
435 440
W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard
430
Par Boiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada
425
W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled
WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 390
410 395
BROWN PARBOILED SORTEXED
410
BROWN LG IR 64 SORTEXED
420
Super Broken Sortex D P water polished Kernel more than 1,7 MM IR 64
350 Short
Broken less than 2,5 mm well milled human consumption
330 Short
1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % fob bagged Kandla
1150
Pure Basmati milled 2 % fob bagged Kandla 815
810 1100 N crop
Medium Grain Swarna Sortexed 5% DP Kakinada
415 N crop
Med G swarna 15 % broken Indica WM Kakinada
NA
Med G Swarna 25 % Broken Standard milling RWM
Kakinada
390 New crop
Milling wheat average local market 15-17000 277-314
Yellow Corn average local market 12-14000 222-259
VIETNAM FOB 50 kg $ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt
LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 560
495 460
10% Br basis 3/4 WM 555
490 455
15% Br basis 2/3 WM 540
475 447
LG Reasonably Mill 25 % Br basis ½ grain 510
460 425
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
GAOTRADE CO. LTD
GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 0044 7799 357 425 gaotrade.co.ltd@gmail.com 3
A1 Super broken Well Milled 450
425 385
Fragrant Broken A1 Super WM DP
Na
LG Jasmine Rice WM DP 5% 690
655
KDM Fragrant 5 WM D Polished
780
MERCOSUR $ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt
Mercosur rice Long Grain Milled
Uruguay Long Grain 5% broken Bagged FOB
565
565 640
Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL
585
Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL
Na
Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t
560
560 Na
Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt
Na
Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortexed bagged Fob 590
595 655
Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortexed bulk FAS + empty bags $ 10/ Mt
585
555 630
São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholeseller 30 Kg bags Local Market
900
Uruguay broken 100 % FOB bagged Bagged
400
Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk
370
PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min
$ EURO $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/
Mt
Italy Long Grain Indica Paddy 430 315 385 285 335
Brazil Long Grain Indica RGSul 280
286 397
Italy Medium Grain Japonica 365
472 350 378 295
Italy Round Grain
310
Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm
350
355 340
Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government
12500 235
Indian Long Grain Indica ex Mill Free Market average North to South
13500
254
Egypt Paddy Med/LG Japonica ex farm 400
410 310
Thai Long Grain Indica 11500 Bath /Mt
360
517 365
Thai Fragrant Paddy 14800
Bath /Mt 500
460
China Medium Grain Japonica Govern Price Paddy
444
China early crop LG Future July Paddy
386 427
Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry
5800 max Dong
311
300 279
Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404
CAMBODIA $ EURO $ EURO $
Euro/ Mt
Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB bulk
FCL
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
GAOTRADE CO. LTD
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Fragrant Top quality KDM 5 pct FOB bulk 935
920 955
Milled rice Long Grain Broken 5 % Na
515
Fragrant top Quality KDM C & F Rotterdam
Brown Fragrant Rice FOB
Na
Broken 100 % Well milled FOB
565
Broken 100 % Well milled C & F Rtdm
Na
USA Ex mill bulk $
$ $c/CWT $/MT
LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS
595 27 594
LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana
26.5
MEDIUM Californian 1
827 35 771
SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1
36.5
Parboiled L G L/Tx/Ark average
33 727
Broken Second Heads LG
374 19.5
Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal
329 25 551
Brewers Broken LG
17,5 385
Brewers Broken California Medium
20
Rice Bran ex mill on truck Louisiana USD /Mt
190
May 2012 2 Sept 2012
24 Oct 2012
10 Nov 2012
Corn USA Future 5.60 $c/bu 8.11 7.54 7.38
Wheat USA future 6.60 8.73 8.71 8.86
Paddy Rice Future 15 15.01 15.06 14.94
Euro /Usd 1.2712
1983 90 95 2000 3 4 5 7 9 2011 12 2013
WORLD MILLED RICE ENDING STOCKS MIO MT
CORN ENDING STOCKS
WHEAT ENDING STOCKS
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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PADDY CHICAGO FUTURE $c /CWT USD/Mt Euro/Mt
1 Sept 2011 18.75 413 301
15 Nov 14.75
4 Feb 2012 13.70 303 231
20 March 14.60 322 243
2 April 14.75 325 250
28 May 15.95 351 276
2 July 14.65 323 256
4 August 15.95 351 283
15 Sept 15.27 336 258
24 Oct 15.06 332 255
10 Nov 14.97 329 259
EUROPEAN MARKET
Basis C & F RTDM in FCL Bulk
Broken Sortexed India USD 430 /Mt
Broken Sortexed DP Pakistan USD 410 /Mt
1/4 less well milled Broken India USD 410 /Mt
Brown Indian Parboiled LG Sortexed USD 520/Mt
Brown Indian Natural LG Sortexed USD 510 /Mt
Egyptian white 100 % Broken “0” USD 440 /Mt
Uruguay Broken Sortexed USD 400 /Mt FOB Vessel in 50 kg pp bags
Paddy sales Milano last week:
New campaign September 2012 -2013 started
Long Japonica (10.500 tonnes)
Long Indica (7.700 tonnes)
Round Japonica (7.500 tonnes)
Medium Japonica (1.100 tonnes)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
US PADDY CHICAGO $cents
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
GAOTRADE CO. LTD
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Total Italian Cumulative sales from 1 Sept 2012: 430’000 Mt
Total Cumulative Imports in the EU New Campaign 2012 -2013:
From Sept 1 -2012
Indica Brown: 123.000 Mt
Milled Indica: 23.500 Mt
100 % Broken Milled rice: 54.000 Mt
Small and large packaging Rice Milled: 12.000 Mt
Main importers shares
Uk 47.000 mt - France 23000 mt -Spain 10000 mt - Italy 9000 mt
Netherland 15000 mt -Portugal 9000 mt - Belgium 6500
Basmati Cumulative imports from 1 Sept 2012 (+21 % on last year)
India 66000 mt
Pakistan 3000 mt
EGYPT Indicative level about 1 USD = 6.00089 Egyptian Pound EGP 12th November 2012
2012-13 EXPORT TENDER RESULTS
Egypt 103,000 tons of rice export licenses awarded to 87 companies but finally only 60 companies will
keep the export licenses, 75,000 tons of rice.
Harvest is nearly complete and the government bought about 5.2 million tons of paddy (3,2 Mio Milled
rice).
Total paddy production for 2012-13 estimated at about 6.8 million tons.(4.1 Mio Mt Milled rice) Low,
compared to 2011-2012 production at 4,5 Mio Mt milled rice
Government needs to procure about 1.0 million tons low quality white rice required for its ration card
program.
Egypt total consumption 2011-12 was around 3.34 million tonnes included the Ratio Card Programme
quantity.
767
0 11 0
331
54 240
0 0 0
IMPORTED RICE BY VARIETIES /000 Mt last year
Brown Indica Cargo Indica + Japonica Milled Indica Milled Japonica Broken all varieties
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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Paddy prices in Egypt are actually around $300/ton for medium grain while milled 5% broken medium
grain rice is shown around $700/ton. Domestic paddy in August 2012 was at USD 300/Mt against USD 540/Mt
one year ago same period.
Export tax of 1,000 Egyptian pounds (about $164)/ton of rice.
WORLD MARKET UP
Recently, China National Grain Center also announced that from November 2012 to March 31, 2013 the floor
price for Japonica Paddy rice in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning will be RMB 2,800/ton. (USD 444/Mt)
Nigeria was considering to increase its rice import tariff end January 2012 if not delayed at last minute
taking in consideration important losses in local paddy crop
Indonesia under discussion with Vietnam for another large rice contract prompt shipment
Indonesia purchased 120.000 Mt of Indian Lg 15 % to be shipped before 15 December!!!!
Indian Government announce the Minimum Purchase Price for the 2012-13 campaign at Rps 19500/Mt F O T
for Reasonably milled Rice 25-30 pct (higher than last year)
A total of 22 vessels are in Kakinada port /anchorage
10 days Rainfall & cyclone “Nilam” destroyed at least 243,000 hectares of Paddy fields, in Andhra Pradesh
Brazilian paddy move up again at R 39.25 /50 kgs bag and local demand for white rice is strong.
Iraq issue a new tender for 100.000 Mt
Mississippi Barge Traffic at Risk of Shutting Down due to low water level
Mauritius has purchased 6,000 tons of white rice from India at $442/ton in a tender
313
614
432
499 505 500
446 411
440 465 450 460
165 170
230
300 270
330 335 325
310 295
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 8 9 10 2011 July 2012 July Aug Sept Oct Nov
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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Low grade milled rice 25 % Trend 2011-12
USA Indicative level about About 1 USD = 0.78650 EUR 1th November 2012
RICE (1 Mt =19, 68 Cwt)
Oct 26 –Nov 1 Period: Business done
Rice Net sales 107,000 MT
Mexico 34,300 MT, Colombia 25,400 MT, Japan 12,000 MT, South Korea 12,000 MT, UK 8,000 MT.
Exports /Loaded 47,800 MT
Japan 13,800 MT, Honduras 7,900 MT, Mexico 6,600 MT, Guatemala 5,800 MT, Costa Rica 3,600 MT.
Wheat Net sales 209,400 MT
South Korea 101,700 MT, Mexico 54,000 MT, Thailand 46,500 MT, the Dominican Republic 11,000 MT,
Jamaica 10,000 MT, Republic of South Africa 6,500 MT
Corn Net sales of 157,600 MT
Mexico 67,900 MT, China 54,500 MT, Japan 30,800 MT, Cuba 25,000 MT, Colombia 9,500 MT, Jamaica 4,800
MT.
Rice Planted acres 000 2010 2011 2012
Total Long Grain 1590 940 1060
Total Medium grain 752 850 646
Calrose Cal Medium only 510 535 490
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 8 9 10 Jul-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 31-Aug 15-Sep 4-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov
VIETNAM WRLG 25 PCT FOB 1/2 grain PAKISTAN WRLG 25 INDIA WRLG 25
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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PAKISTAN Indicative level about PKR/USD 94.8002 PKR 12th November 2012
1 - July 2012 to 5 November 2012
Rice qualities Totals Mt
Last year July
September export
Mt
Total Basmati 212.000 278.000
Total non Basmati
400.000
Total Export Registered Contract all
rice 2012-13 Campaign 612.000 624.000
FORECAST NEW CROP 2012 -2013
Pakistan’s paddy projection expected less by 1.4 million tonnes to 9.4 million tonnes.
This translates into 6.27 million tonnes of milled rice.
At the end of September Rice growers in upper Sindh were in a difficult situation because late
monsoon rain caused serious damage to the crop and its nurseries.
Sindh’s rice production is around 2.6 to 2.7 million tons on an average. Nurseries of rice are prepared in
May in Sindh But it was badly hit due to unavailability of water. Sowing started late June or mid July and in
upper Sindh areas located on the right bank of the River Indus, it was delayed by one and a half month.
“Rains have been continuing since 15 September and problem is that water cannot easily be drained out
by farmers “the crop can only be saved in the area where farmers are able to drain out rainwater from paddy
fields. Farmers estimate that 30% of the Sindh rice crop will be damaged.
THAILAND Indicative level about 1 USD = 30.3818 THB Thai Baht 12th November 2012
THAILAND EXPORT FIGURES /000 Mt Milled 2011/2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 3 6 10 2012
60
75
100
77
60
USA MILLED RICE EXPORT LONG GRAIN MIO CWT MEDIUM GRAIN END YEAR STOCKS
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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Total Export Jan –31 Sept - 2011 was 8.540.000 Mt (Including Fragrant)
Last week (excl. Fragrant) 123.000Mt sold
Total Exports 1st January up to Nov 5, 2012
Total export 5 Nov 2012: 4.100,000 Mt (White and Parboiled)
And 5.060.000 Mt (White + Parboiled + Fragrant) down 44 % from previous year
2012-2013 Paddy Pledge Programme received from 1 October: 760.000 mt
2012/13 PADDY PLEDGING PROGRAM:
Government is running out of space to store the grain it buys, with stocks already at a record high as the
harvest of the main crop gets into full swing, farmers and industry officials said last week. The Thai Government
is currently holding total intervention stocks of around 15 million metric tons; of which 1-2 million metric tons
are old-crop rice. The 2011/12 Paddy Pledging Program pledged 21.5 million metric tons of paddy (14.2 million
metric tons milled equivalent); of which 7.0 million metric tons are main-crop paddy (4.6 million metric tons
milled ) - and 14.5 million metric tons are off-season crop paddy (9.6 million metric tons milled).
The program is expected to cost $13 billion and the government has pledged a target range of 26.0
million metric tons of paddy (17 million metric tons milled equivalent). This accounts for approximately 80% of
total rice production. The program will be effective from October 1, 2012 to September 30, 2013. The
intervention prices remain unchanged at 13,800 - 15,000 baht/tons ($444 – $482/MT) for white rice paddy, and
18,000 – 20,000 baht/ton ($579 – $643/MT) for fragrant rice paddy. No limit restrictions were imposed on the
pledged amount.
Thailand Economy Figures:
Budget Expenditures $ 74.99 billion (2011 est.)
Budget revenues $ 40.90 billion (2010)
Debt - external $ 115.60 billion (2011 est.)
Thailand Export Rice 000 Mt
2008 10.000
2009 8.570
2010 9.050
2011 10.500
Our 2012 Forecast 5.800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
TOTAL EXPORT / MONTH MT THAILAND 2011-2012
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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Expected quantity in Stock end of
October 2012 MT Milled
Share in %
White milled & broken
New & old crop 6.500.000
42
Fragrant Milled Home Mali
New and old crop 7.500.000
48
Fragrant Milled standard
New & old Crop 1.000.000
6
Glutinous Milled N & O Crop 450.000 3
Total Milled N & O Crop 15.500.000 100 %
Old crop ( included in Total ) 2.000.000
INDIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 54.3970 INR Indian Rupee 12th November 2012
Based on the latest trade reports, the 2011/12 non Basmati and Basmati rice total export estimate to 10.4
million tons includes 7 million tons non-Basmati and 3 million tons Basmati rice.
2012/13 rice paddy production forecasted at 99 million tons on continued favorable weather conditions.
The kharif (fall-harvested) rice crop is progressing well under adequate soil moisture and weather conditions in
most rice growing states. Most southern states received heavy rains in recent weeks.
Delayed planting is likely to result in a 2- to 3-weeks delay in the harvest of kharif rice in most rice
growing states. Harvesting commenced in the northern states (Punjab/Haryana) in the second week of October
and will start the first week of November in other states, to continue through December.
In Andhra Pradesh 250.000 Ha of paddy crop get lost under torrential heavy rain and cyclone conditions
during firs 10 days November 2012
India’s 2012/13 crop forecast lowered 3.0 million tons basis milled due to a delayed, deficient, and
poorly distributed monsoon rainfall that has reduced area and yield potential for growers dependent on the
seasonal rains. The forecasted crop is 6 per cent below the year earlier record.
Expected production 98.0 million tons milled rice in 2012-13. The government has set a target of procuring 40
million tonnes (MT) of the staple in 2012-13 marketing season (October- September).
Punjab and Haryana basmati and Pusa crop seem to be less than last year due to lack of water
availability. The governments of India and Iran continue to negotiate on opportunities for exports of Indian
0
50
100
150
200
250 198 208 217 230 234 218 244 250
95 102 98
INDIA TOTAL PRODUCTION GRAINS Million Mt WHEAT PADDY
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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wheat from government stocks to Iran against the rupee payment for export sales of Iranian petroleum to India.
However, there has not yet been agreement between the two countries.
FCI Andhra Pradesh issued purchase prices starting 1 October 2012
WR MEDIUM milled 25 -30 pct broken: Rps 19000/Mt free on truck
WR LONG GRAIN IR 64 with 25-30 % broken: Rps 19500 rps/Mt free on truck
So far, the total Indian rice acreage is down by 5% at 36.764 Mio hectares, which may keep the
output lower than last year. Kharif is the main season for rice crop, which is typically sown in June-July and
harvested in November-December. About 84 per cent of the country’s rice is grown during this season.
Crop Ha seeded 2012 -13 Normal average Ha
Rice 36,765,000 36,126,000
Coarse Grain 17,593,000 17,615,000
Pulses 10,118,000 10,923,000
1st September: Wheat stockpiles increased to 47.5 million tons from 35.9 million tons a year earlier.
Rice inventory was 28.5 million tons, compared with 25.3 million tons /year earlier.
SEASON RAINFALL from 1 June to 10 September 2012 -Indian Meteo-Service
Regions June-Sept all (mm) Normal (mm) Share of total crop
Punjab 196 422 10.86 %
Haryana 241 407 3.61 %
Uttar Pradesh 595 737 12.00 %
Bihar 604 842 5.34 %
W Bengal 786 942 15.80 %
Orissa 962 972 7.31 %
Andra Pradesh 513 446 12.8 %
Karnakata 2893 2846 3.70 %
Tamil Nadu 175 214 7.00 %
Chhattisgarh 1042 982 5.41 %
LOADING ACTIVITY Indian Port 2012
KAKINADA PORT : 29 vessels are under loading RICE AND CORN
17 vessels to load WHITE RICE & Broken
8 vessels to load PB Srtx
4 vessels to load MAIZE
KANDLA : 3 vessels under load white low grade + 2 vessels loading Basmati
Aromatic Rice Local Market India
Buying by rice mills coupled with low arrivals has helped aromatic paddy varieties fetch better rates this year.
Estimates that the produce will be less this year led to frantic buying by mills, as they don’t have enough carry-
forward stocks of basmati. According to the Rice Exporters’ Association, this year basmati rice production is
estimated to drop by around 10% due to decline in acreage.
Pure Basmati Paddy arrival in N Delhi market traded 50 % higher than last year same period!!!!
Pusa 1121 paddy traded at same level of last year.
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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Varieties Price Free on truck New Delhi market
Pusa-1121 (steam) Rs 5600
Pusa-1121 (PB sela) Rs 4500
Basmati Pure Milled (raw) Expected at Rs 6000 ( Usd 1120 )
Duplicated basmati Rs 4600
Pusa Basmati white Rs 5500
Brokens of Pusa-1121, Rs 2750
Dubar broken R 2700
Mongra broken Rs 2250
PR-14 (steam) Rs 2800
Sharbati (steam) from Rs 3900 to 3700
Sharbati PB Sela RS 3670 down 3300
Sharbati (white) from Rs 3400 to 3100
Permal PB (sela) Rs 2200 down 100
Permal Milled (raw) Rs 2100
PR-11 (PB sela) Rs 2,450
PR-11 (Raw White ) from Rs 2,550 to 2450 ( $ 462 )
YEAR Rice PRODUCTION Mio Mt Population Mio Mt/capita
1950 20.58 350 ............... 0.0588
2001 93.08 1.015............... 0.0917
2012 103.00 1.190 ................ 0.0865
VIETNAM Indicative level about 1 USD = 20,534.10 VND Vietnamese Dong 12th November 20112
Vietnam Export Mt Rice
Trend 000 MT
2008 4690
2009 5950
2010 6730
2011 7000
2012 Forecast 7000
Vietnam’s total rice exports 1st January to 5 November 2012: 6.200.000 tons Milled basis
In HCM port 230,000 tons under load this week.
Prices may increase further in the first quarter next year if the harvest of the winter-spring rice crop is
delayed beyond February. According to the VFA, ending stocks of rice this year is expected to be around
800,000 tons, the lowest in over 10 years.
Philippines 175.000 MT, under loading (5% and 25% broken rice).
Malaysia contract under loading
New contract with Indonesia under negotiations
Indonesia 300.000 Mt contract under load
Rice exports likely to reach 7.5 million tons this year, taking into account more than 1 million tons to be
shipped throughout December under signed contracts, according to the Vietnam Food Association
Depending on new contracts signed in November, the country’s rice export volume can even hit 7.7
million tons, the highest figure over the past 20 years.
INSIDE THE RICE 035 12th November 2012
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Monday 22 October, traders in An Giang and Vinh Long Provinces paid VND5,800/kg for normal rice
variety and VND6,500/kg for the fragrant variety.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, this year, the country’s total rice area
reaches 7.75 million ha, a 1.2% rise against 2011. Rice paddy output to hit 43 Mio MT in 2012-13. Vietnam’s
rice output is expected to surpass 43 million Mt in 2012-13, an increase of 1 million tons or 2.6% over the
previous year.
Animal feed local market under pressure
Wheat imports for 2012 estimated at 2.6 million tons. The use of feed wheat for the local animal feed industry
about 1.1 million tons.
The imported corn was in 2012: 1.25 million tons, of which Indian corn accounted for + than 77% of the total.
R I C E E X P O R T S F R O M V I E T N A M - L O A D I N G A C T I V I T Y
Ho Chi Minh Port: only 230.000 Mt under load
7 vessels to Malaysia
9 vessels to Philippines
1 vessel WR LG 5 % to H Hong 29000 Mt
1 vessel to South Africa (32 000 Mt PB???)
2 Vessels to Indonesia (42.000 Mt)
1 vessel Japan (6000 Mt)
1 Vessel Thailand (32000 Mt)
1 Vessel to China (6000 Mt)
MYANMAR Indicative level About 1USD = 833.214 MMK Myanmar Kyat 12th November 2012
2011/2012, Burma’s rice paddy production increased 2.7% to16.9 million metric tons (MMT) and official
exports will decrease 23% to 0.6 MMT milled rice.
Estimated 12 months non official export to China via border - by daily- trucks at 500.000 Mt.
Average rice prices in Local Burma Market have dropped from last year as rice from the new harvest has
started entering the market and also due to a reduction of unofficial exports to China.
Local rice millers say that prices of high quality rice varieties have declined to about $760/ton down from $800
/ton. Low quality rice prices have declined to $400 /ton. Millers are declining prices in order to sell rice from the
old harvest to make space for the arrival of rice from the new harvest.
INDONESIA
Indicative level about 9,574.75 IDR Indonesian Rupiah – 12th November 2012
130.000 Mt of Indian WR LG Rice 15 % finalized in tender by Bulog for prompt shipment.
300-400 000 Mt Contract was signed end September with Vietnam but another large contract was under
discussion in HCMC during last week.
Paddy rice production 2012-13 is expected to increase to 43.4 million tons, basis milled this year, up 4.9% on
last year, according to the country’s Statistics
The Indonesian National Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that the average price of wet paddy is slightly
increasing from Rp. 3,726/kg ($392/MT) in April 2012 to actual Rp. 3,835/kg ($404/MT).
Indonesia is targeting to minimize total rice imports to 770,000 tons, from last year’s imports of around 1.8
million tons.
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Indonesia is estimated to produce 36.5 million tons of milled rice in 2011-12, up from a previous
estimate. Consumption is estimated to be rising from 39 million tons in 2010-11, to 39.7 million tons in
2011-12. Indonesia has extended a (MoU) with Vietnam covering 1.5 million tons of rice/year 2013-2017
The head of Indonesia’s rice-buying agency Bulog said the agency has 2.2 million tons of rice in Bulog
stockpiles. Stocks will move down to 1.1-1.5 by year-end.
BULOG distributed a total of 3.15MMT of Raskin rice to 17.5 million poor families. Each family
received 15 kg of rice/month at the price of Rp. 1,600 /kg. As of early July 2012, BULOG has distributed a total
of 1.7 MMT of rice under this Raskin program.
PHILIPPINES Indicative level about 1 USD = 40.5011 PHP Philippine Peso – 12th November 2012
The January-June 2012 paddy production was 7.89 million MT, 4.2% higher than last year's level of 7.58
million MT. Harvested area was recorded at 2.04 million hectares, 2.1% above last year's record of 1.99 million
hectares. Yield per hectare was up by 2% or from 3.80 MT in 2011 to 3.88 MT this year.
The Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) has projected that paddy production for the second half of
2012 is forecast at 9.92 million MT, 8.9 % higher than last year’s level of 9.11 million MT. Philippine Stock
Rice end September 2012: Total rice stocks: 1.2 million tons, down almost 34 % from last year same period.
Manila price bulletin: Milled rice high quality wholesale price Pesos/kg
July 33,19 + 3,4 % on last year
August 35,00 + 10 % on last month
Sept 40,00 +14 % o last month
Nov 5 43,00 + 7.5 % on Sept
Milled Rice well milled quality
August 30,43 + 4 % on last year
Set 32,.00 + 6 %
Oct –Nov 5 35,00 + 9 %
Paddy ex farm gate 2011-12 Crop average:
May 16,67/kg
June 17,00/kg + 7,6 % on last year
Sept 16,46 /Kg
Oct 24 16.07 /Kg
SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA Production Milled Rice Trend South & Central America (x 000 MT)
2010/11 2011/2012 2012/13 Forecast
Argentina 1,118 1,008
Brazil 9,300 7,888 7,320
Colombia 1,323 1,430 1,591
Cuba 295 338 338
Dominican Republic 562 573 573
Ecuador 900 624 600
Guyana 361 402 410
Mexico 146 125 153
Peru 1,939 1,666 2,001
Uruguay 1,150 931 840
Venezuela 358 380 385
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BRAZIL Indicative level about 1 USD = 2.03730 BRL Brazilian Real 12th November 2012
Brazil’s 2012/13 production forecast lowered by 850,000 tons to 7.3 million based on a much lower
area estimate. At 2.4 million hectares, Brazil’s rice area is 350,000 hectares below a year earlier and the lowest
in more than a half a century.
000 MT 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 FORCAST
Wheat production 5’900 5’800 6’000
Corn production 57’000 62’000 68’000
Rice milled production 9’300 7’800 7’300
Rice export 1’300 900 700
TIPO 1 Brazil Paddy Pelotas ex farm gate: From (RS) 50 kg 28,95 R/50Kg 1st week August
And 24,00 Rs last year campaign was UP to Rs 39.95/50 kgs (USD 397/Mt) last week
50 % more than 12 months ago
White rice Sao Paolo Type 1 /30 kg sold at USD 993/Mt (wholesale)
48 % more than 12 months ago
Brazil’s paddy rice production in 2012 reached 11.6 million tons, down almost 15% from about 13.6 million tons
in 2011, mainly because of lower acreage due to high production costs (FAO).
Production of soybean and wheat are also expected to decline 12% and 14% respectively this year, while maize
production is expected to surge about 74% to 38.5 million tons, due to high prices of maize this season.
Brazil will export about 700,000 tons in 2012-13, down nearly 50% from the previous year, as ending stocks of
rice this year are low.
URUGUAY Indicative level about 1 USD = 19.1899 UYU Uruguayan Peso 12th November 2012
Rice production trend
Improvement in rainfall in Uruguay will allow area under rice cultivation to reach about 182,000 hectares
this year, about 1.6% higher than an earlier estimate by Uruguay's Department of Agriculture Statistics of about
179,000 hectares, but down about 7% from the record 196,000 ha achieved in 2010-11.
0
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1800
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2011 2012
RICE Uruguay Production x 000
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Uruguay is estimated to produce about 1.45 million tons of paddy rice this year, down about 9% from the
1.6 million tons of paddy produced in 2010-11. Water shortage and high production and irrigation costs are the
main reasons for the decline in rice acreage over the last few years.
Production cost
$ Mt
Prod Cost
$ /50 kg
Gross income
$ /50 kg
2003 154.9 7.74 9.05
2004 144 7.2 7.05
2005 153 7.65 7.76
2007 204 10.5 15.3
2009 235 11.75 12.04
2010 228 11.04 12.50
2011-12 274 13.07 12.20
Total Exports 2011-12: 900.000 Mt Milled Rice
ARGENTINA Indicative level about 1 USD = 4.71269 ARS Argentine Peso – 12th November 2012
Argentina moved more than 120.000 mt Milled rice high quality to Brazil during las 4 months
Spring rice planting is underway September-November in the southern hemisphere nation.
Rice Production for 2011/12 is estimated somewhat lower at 1.47 million tons (PADDY) as average
yields in the northern part of the country are a little bit worse than expected
Rice Production Trend and Forecast
Year Htrs Paddy Mt Milled Mt
2009-2010 215,000 Htrs 1,459,000 Mt 875.000 Mt
2010 -2011 258,000 Htrs 1,751.000 Mt 1.051.000 Mt
2011-2012 216,800 Htss 1,470.000 Mt 873.000 Mt
2012-2013 200,000 Htrs 1.350.000 Mt 800.000 Mt
VENEZUELA Indicative Level around 1 USD = 4.28970 Venezuelan Bolivar Fuerte VEF 12th November 20112
According to Fedeagro, rough rice production for 2012/13 is estimated at 567,000 MT as producers plan
to boost rice planting because of more favorable Government policies to support grain crops.
Ministry of Food and Corporation says paddy rice imports could reach around 625,000 tons (about
420,000 tons, basis milled) this year, in the next campaign. A total of 429,000 tons of paddy rice was imported
up to end May 2012. Venezuela imports most of its rice from Argentina, Ecuador, Guyana, USA.
High level of debts slows down rice growth and lack of materials and of financing have been an obstacle.
The production of paddy rice during 2011-12 was 570, 000 Mt, more or less the same as last year.
Actually, production reaches 53% of the national need. Consumption in 2010/11 reached 644,000 MT of milled
rice. Consumption is estimated to be 650,000 MT in 2011/12 supported by continued imports by the government,
and grow slightly with population to 655,000 in 2012/13.
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COLOMBIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 1,815.00 COP Colombian Peso 12th November 2012
In 2011/2012, Colombian rice area is expected to increase by 12% to 470,000 hectares, and paddy rice
production is expected to increase by 157,000 tons to 2.19 million tons. The forecast for 2012/2013 is for rice
production to increase to 2.2 million tons of paddy rice, a 5% increase, due to return to a higher productivity.
The Colombian duty on rice imports from countries outside the Andean Community is 80%. It is
estimated that rice stocks at the end 2012 will be just 30,000 tons of milled rice lower than previous years.
Smuggling paddy trough the borders estimated 150.-200.000 Mt last year.
PERU Indicative level about 1 USD = 2.54418 PEN Peruvian Nuevo Sol 12th November 2012
Milled Rice 000 Mt 2010 2011 2012 Forecast
Production 2080 2000 1650
Consumption 2000 2100 2000
End stocks 170 65 25
Total Imports 91 200 250
Production: Rice production for 2012 is forecast to decrease 14% to 1.68 MMT (milled basis).
Harvested area for 2012 is estimated at 350,000 hectares. Expected 220.000 Mt Import in 2012:
Milled Production trend Year End Stocks
2009-10 1,840,000 Mt 170,000 Mt
2010-11 1,950.000 Mt 65,000 Mt
2011-12 1,670,000 Mt 30.000 Mt
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Imports 2012 Mt milled rice
January 27’000
February 10’000
March 22’000
April 16’000
May 14’000
June 22’000
July 17’000
August 24’000
September 28’000
GUAYANA
Indicative level around 1 USD = 200.000 Guayanese Dollar GYD
Rice production increased 11% last year to reach its highest ever level of 401,000 tonnes
Last year, Guyana and Venezuela signed a US$54 million agreement for the supply of rice. That deal also
extended and revised three previous contracts. More than 160, 000 tonnes of the Guyana‘s rice exports went to
the neighbouring country.
000 Mt Paddy
Production
000 Milled Rice Export Milled
000 Mt
2004 510 325 243
2005 420 270 180
2006 472 307 200
2007 450 295 270
2009 553 358 260
2010 556 360 330
2012 400
CHINA
Indicative level about 1 USD = 6.27678 CNY Chinese Yuan Renminbi – 12th November 2012
China's rice imports surge 256% Jan-Oct 2012 compared to last year same period
China imported 1.64 million tons of rice in the first ten months of 2012, an on-year surge of 256%, sources
reported, citing statistics from General Administration of Customs.
China Grain and Feed , forecasted 2012/13 milled rice production unchanged at 143 million tons, up from
140 million tons last year, ” China report indicates that more farmers have been planting corn over soybeans,
Wheat production will reach 118 million tons in 2012/13,same as last year.
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PADDY TREND 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Yuan /Mt Yuan /Mt Yuan /Mt
INDICA PADDY 1800 2100 2650
JAPONICA PADDY 2300 2700 3000
The acreage for growing grain crops is expected to expand by 733,000 hectares to 111 million hectares
this year.
Milled Rice imports in to China from January to end September 2012 represented over 1.8 million tons,
China Paddy Futures
Indica Early Crop NY/MT $ /Mt
2006 1550 187
2008 1640 234
2011 2569 390
2012 Nov 2652 420
More and more Chinese farmers are increasing their control on production yield and water management
Rice System Irrigation 2011-12 Area In Ha Paddy
Irrigated 30.780.000
Rain fed 1.650.000
Mix System 670.000
Total Area Ha 33.100.000
Paddy EARLY CROP SINGLE CROP LATE CROP
Yield Mt /ha 5.7 Mt/ha 7.1 Mt/ha 5.57Mt/ha
% on total 26 46 28
CHINESE GRAIN EXPERTS said in Nov 2012
There could be a small fall in overall grain production this year to 570 m tons from the 571.2m tons /year
earlier, according to Sinograin, but this is still substantially up on the 546.5m tons produced a year earlier. Total
imports would hit 62.5m tons, compared with 58.5m tons and 61.35m tons in the 2 previous years.
On maize, where China is seen as a potential tipping point in the market, expert forecast imports of 5m
tons, compared with 3.5m tons a year earlier “Prices in China have been at their highest ever levels so farmers
are enthusiastic,” The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre has put Chinese maize imports in
2012/13 at 6m tons, the USDA at 7m tons, while private analysts have viewed them into the double figures.
140
170 192 185
198
162 185 190
200
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Soyabean is less attractive to farmers in terms of profits, expert put local production in 2012/13 at 14m
tons from 14.5m tons a year earlier and 15.1m tons before that. This would see imports reach 57.5m tons from
55m tons and 52.35m tons in the 2 earlier years.
RUSSIA Indicative level about 1 USD = 31.0736 Russian Rouble RUB 12th November 2012
Farmers in Krasnodar valley harvested 5.3 MMT, with the average yield of 4.0 MT/ha. Russia estimates
the country’s rice production to increase to 730,000 tons in 2013, up about 9%. Exports in 2012: 200,000 tons
Futures EXW Rice Groats G1 September 16,150
Futures EXW Rice Groats T1 November 17.730
AFRICA
WEST AFRICA RICE SUPPLY /DEMAND
Burkina Faso, Chad, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Mali,
Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Togo, Nigeria
ALL AFRICA UNBALANCED AGRI-TRADE
2009 Figures Exports MIO USD Imports MIO USD Balance
Cereals 975 10500 - 9525
Oil& Fat 82 409 - 327
Oil seed 952 2700 - 682
Dairy 229 2300 - 1389
Meat 334 1300 - 966
Sugar 1364 1850 - 486
Veg & Fruit 4599 1800 + 2313
Coffee& Cocoa 5140 842 + 4298
Spices 170 117 + 53
Total 17550 24300 - 6800
0
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WEST AFRICA MILLED RICE PRODUCTION X 000 Mt IMPORT CONSUPTION
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AFRICA ALL CEREAL UTILIZATION /CAPITA KG/YEAR
FREIGHT CONTAINER TREND
310
195
140
313
276
300
245
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1960 2000 2009
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On Nov. 2, the China Containerized Freight issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) slid by 0.6% to
1,159.62 points; while the SCFI went up by 1.7% to 1,251.20 points. The SCFI showed that the freight rate
(covering seaborne surcharges) of service from Shanghai to base ports of Europe significantly rose by 13.4% to
$1,491/TEU.
CHINA's Cosco Pacific's Athens-area Piraeus Container Terminal (PCT) handled 1.6 million TEU in the year to
end-September, 200,000 TEU, surpassing the 1.4 million TEU annual target and representing a 96 per cent year-
on-year increase.
FROM THE PRESS
Rain and snow in China's north have driven farm produce prices slightly up in 36 large and
medium-sized cities, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Tuesday. In the week ending Nov. 4, the wholesale
price of 18 types of vegetables climbed 0.7% from a week earlier, according to the ministry.
Prices of cucumbers, potatoes and tomatoes jumped 8%, 6.8% and 7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the
price of eggs dropped 0.4%, down for the 4th
consecutive week. The retail price of grain and cooking oil edged
up slightly, with prices of rice, colza oil and peanut oil up 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
The wholesale price of pork dropped 0.1% week-on-week, while prices of mutton and beef went up
slightly by both rising 0.7%. The wholesale prices of eight kinds of aquatic products declined 0.2% from a week
ago. Food prices account for about 30% of the weighting in the nation's calculation of the consumer price index
(CPI), the key gauge of inflation.
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The CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year in September, easing from 2 in August, according to the
country's statistics authority.
Strong economic numbers
Retail sales were up 14.5% for the month from a year earlier, compared to Reuters’ forecast for a 14%
rise, and the previous month’s 14.2% increase.
RICE PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE
Country Average farm size (ha) Average yield (t/ha)
Australia 591 8.8
USA 146.5 7.4
Japan 1.75 to < 12 6.7
South Korea 6.51
China < 0.5 6.3
Vietnam 4.52
India < 1 3.5
Thailand <2 3.0
RICE AND TOTAL WATER USE PER COUNTRIES PER MT PADDY
Total Use of Water by Countries m 3 water /Mt paddy Rice Produced
China 785
India 1400
Indonesia 927
Bangladesh 1120
Vietnam 700
Thailand 1250
Myanmar 1100
Japan 755
Brazil 1270
USA 650
Pakistan 1600
AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION OF USABLE PROTEIN/UNIT LAND
Gram Protein /sqm POUND protein/ACRE
SOYBEAN 29 263
RICE 25 224
MAIZE 7.7 68
WHEAT 8.4 75 VEGETABLES 11 94
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