information | analytics | expertise - umtri - university … measure credits fines 2016 - 34.1 mpg...
Post on 17-Mar-2018
217 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Information | Analytics | Expertise
© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
MEXICO AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Mexico Now
MAY, 2015
Guido Vildozo, Manager Latin America Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts, IHS
© 2014 IHS
Agenda
• Global Outlook
• US Sales
• NAFTA Production
• Mexico Production
• Key Takeaways
2
© 2014 IHS
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
World light vehicle selling rates Low oil will help weak global market; China remains the key to industry growth
World
World without China
Source: IHS Automotive analysis, monthly data with X12 Seasonal Adjustment
Global market, without China, finally back to pre-recession levels
LV s
ales
SA
AR
, mill
ions
sol
d
© 2014 IHS
Global light vehicle sales outlook 2014–15 sales volume
86.4
87.9
+ 1.6
+ 0.5
+ 0.5
+ 0.4 - 0.0 - 0.2
- 0.5
- 0.9
86.3
86.8
87.3
87.8
88.3
88.8
89.3
2014 Greater China North America West Europe South Asia MiddleEast/Africa
Japan/Korea South America Central/EastEurope
2015
Mill
ion
units
+2%
© 2014 IHS
Global sales
For February 2015, the positive picture continued, as global demand grew 1.3%, with year-to-date demand growing 2.2%, to 13.33 million units.
For 2015, our global sales forecast is set at 87.85 million units, up by a further 1.7%; this is a mild downgrade compared with the last update. We assume lower oil prices will be a net positive for the auto industry, although clearly not for oil exporters. Some of the recent downgrades to the macroeconomic forecasts—particularly developing countries and oil exporters—could provide a natural offset on vehicle sales volumes. Until the end of the forecast horizon in 2021, the global light vehicle sales market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% and approach 104.0 million units.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2012 2013 2014 February 2015 YTD 2015 2016 2017
Year-on-year change M
illio
n un
its
Global Change
© 2014 IHS
Global contingency forecast Stronger/weaker economic growth will have significant implications
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
110,000,000
120,000,00020
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
BaselineOptimisticPessimistic
2015-22 impact Optimistic: Low oil creates global rise in consumer/business confidence, higher
spending, adds 37m vehicle sales to forecast
Pessimistic: Oil price snaps back more quickly, euro crisis heats up, global credit
confidence falls, removes 45m vehicle sales
Source: IHS Automotive Q1 2015 Contingency Forecast
© 2014 IHS
Brent blend crude-oil forecast Abundant supply plus weak demand is causing further declines
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Dol
lars
/bar
rel
Source: IHS Energy
© 2014 IHS
Intention to buy in the next six months
8
1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
6 Month Moving Average Actual
(Percent Yes)
Conference Board
Not just a needs based recovery, but wants driven
© 2014 IHS 9
U.S. New Light Vehicle Inventory — Days Supply
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
(Days Supply)
Months — Seasonally Adjusted
Light Trucks
Cars
Inventory is back in balance
© 2014 IHS
10
89
101112131415161718
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
Total Volume - L Luxury Market Share - R
(Millions of Units)
US Light Vehicle Sales
© 2014 IHS
11
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales — Cars vs Trucks
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Cars Light Trucks
(Millions of Units)
© 2014 IHS
12
U.S. Sales — Manufacturers Market Share
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
GM FORD CHRYSLER/FIAT TOYOTA HONDA NISSAN HYUNDAI/KIA
(Light Vehicle Share)
Market share is wide open and up for grabs
© 2014 IHS
13
U.S. Sales — Manufacturers Market Share
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
HYUNDAI KIA SUBARU MAZDA MITSUBISHI VW GROUP
(Light Vehicle Share)
© 2014 IHS
14
U.S. Car Sales — By Segment
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
Compact Full-Size Mid-Size Sports Small
(Units)
© 2014 IHS
15
U.S. Light Truck Sales — By Segment
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
CUV MPV Full-Size PUP Mid-Size PUP SUV VAN
(Units)
Copyright © 2015 IHS Global Inc. All Rights Reserved.
NHTSA CAFE History Has Only Recently Begun to Trend toward Higher MPG Targets
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
CAFÉ
Sta
ndar
d (M
PG)
Model Year
Cars
Trucks
Combined
• Two key milestones for the future are the 2016 requirement and then the more difficult 2017-2025 requirement
– Congress establishes CAFE 1978-1985 – DOT sets truck standard to max feasible 1979-1996 – DOT relaxes car standard 1986-1989 – DOT sets car standard to 27.5 mpg 1990-2010 – Congress freezes truck standards at 20.7 1997-2001
– Bush Administration sets new truck targets 2005-2007 – EISA changes CAFE to new footprint standard 2008- present – Obama Administration sets new car & truck standards 2012-2016 – Obama Administration sets new car & truck standards 2017-2025
Decline in the MPG target has happened in the past
Copyright © 2015 IHS Global Inc. All Rights Reserved.
There Are Now Two Targets for US Fuel-Economy Legislation – NHTSA MPG and EPA CO2 Levels
17
Organization
Regulation
Limits
Measure
Credits
Fines
2016 - 34.1 mpg 2025 - 49.6 mpg
National Highway Traffic Safety Admin. (NHTSA)
CAFE
34.1mpg; total US fleet average in MY2016 / 49.6mpg in MY2025
Discrete OEM targets vehicle-size footprint
Trading between car and truck fleets FFV credits
Possible
2016 - 250 g/mile
2025 - 163 g/mile or 54.5 mpg
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Greenhouse gas standard (GHG/CO2)
250g/mile total US fleet average in MY2016 / 163g/mile in MY2025
Discrete OEM targets vehicle-size footprint
Same as NHTSA, plus additional off-cycle and EV credits
Not possible NOTE: In the U.S. the MPG equivalent of 54.5 is often referenced in media reports
Copyright © 2015 IHS Global Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The Bulk of US Engines Are Dropping Cylinders While Simultaneously Reducing Displacement
18
• IHS forecasts an increase of 4 cylinder engines to nearly 10 million units by 2024
• 3 cylinder engines also enter the market and grow to 1.6M units in a relatively flat market
• 8 cylinder engines lose 400K fitments while 6 cylinder engines decline from 5+ million to just over 3 million
• Average displacement across all numbers of cylinders drops more than 500cc by 2024
• The Average moves from 3.1 liters down to just over 2.5 liters
© 2014 IHS
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Milli
ons
Sales Production
Post Restructuring
Loca
lizat
ion
Exp
ansi
on
Exp
orts
• From 2001- 2009, regional sales eclipse output by 27% or 3.7 million units • 2017 – 2021, future sales levels outpace production by less than 7.0% or by ~1 million units • Positive sales trajectory tapers after peak in 2017 • Long-term output nears 18.5M units – far surpasses 16.0M unit pre-2009 levels
N. America - LV Sales and Production
© 2014 IHS 19
© 2014 IHS
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Y-O-Y %
ChangeOut
put (
Milli
ons)
United States Mexico Canada Change
CAGR 1.2%
CAGR 7.1%
CAGR -4.3%
2014 – 2020
20
North American Market Structure
© 2014 IHS 21
OEM 2014 (000s)
2015F (000s) % ∆ ∆ Units
(000s)
GM 3,380 3,349 -0.9% -30 Ford 2,940 3,137 6.7% 196
Chry/Fiat 2,816 2,767 -1.7% -49 Detroit 3 9,136 9,256 1.3% 117 Toyota 1,986 2,037 2.6% 51 Honda 1,807 1,900 5.2% 93
Ren/Nissan 1,743 1,735 -0.5% -9 Hyundai 764 736 -3.8% -29 Asian 4 6,300 6,421 1.7% 107
VW 592 564 -4.8% -28 BMW 350 386 10.3% 36
Daimler 255 305 19.4% 50 German 3 1,197 1,255 4.8% 57
Others 395 507 28.3% 112 Total 17.0M 17.4M 2.3% ~393
• 2014 added a substantial 800K to production, 2015 is less
• Ford will charge ahead w new F-150
• Honda just launched production of HR-V
• VW in dire need of new product, X3 and C-Class boosting BMW and MB
• No new plants coming into operation in 2015, got to wait until 2016!
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production 2014 vs 2015
© 2014 IHS
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
PROD
(Millions of units)
Forecast at risk due to Brazil
Mexico Light Vehicle Production More growth to come
© 2014 IHS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Ren/Nis GM VW FCA Ford Honda Toyota Hyundai Mazda Daimler BMW
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Units
Mexico Light Vehicle Production By OEM
© 2014 IHS 24
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EuropeSouth America Middle East/AfricaAsia North America
Nor
th A
mer
ican
Veh
icle
Exp
orts
(Mill
ions
)
Mexico Vehicle Exports by Region
2.4 2.6
3.2
2.5
3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8
• Greater use of global platforms allows for more “export ready” product
• 40+ Free trade agreements drive Mexican output
• Expansion of luxury segment capability across the region into Mexico
• SA exports hurt by Brazil and Argentina
• NA gains 1 million units; followed by SA with 250K; MEA will be 75K; Asia flat; SA gain of 25K
3.8
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Forecast
North America Light Vehicle Production Exports bolster prospects
© 2014 IHS
Global Top 10 Production Countries
2010 2014 2015 2020 1 China China China China 2 Japan United States United States United States 3 United States Japan Japan Japan 4 Germany Germany Germany India 5 South Korea South Korea India Germany 6 India India South Korea Mexico 7 Brazil Mexico Mexico Brazil 8 Spain Brazil Brazil South Korea 9 Mexico Thailand Spain Thailand
10 France Canada Thailand Spain
25
• Mexico is definitely on the industry’s radar
• Will continue to ascend among Top 10 in the 2015-2020 time period
• Could build more than Brazil!
© 2014 IHS 26
• Global growth is driven by TRIAD as opposed to emerging nations in 2015
• US has another solid year, we are now back to business as usual
• We have only seen the tip of the iceberg on legislation on emissions
• Luxury Segment is key
• NAFTA production sees more investment, particularly due to localization
• Mexican production is at 3 million unit mark quickly ascending to 5 million units!
• Continues to rely heavily on the US
Key Takeaways
Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America Vehicle Sales guido.vildozo@IHS.com
Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado!
© 2014 IHS
For more information, please contact
IHS Customer Care
800 447 2273 (IHS CARE)
+44 (0) 1344 328 300
Customer.Care@ihs.com
28
top related