influence of climate variability on water resources in ecuador: a case study of hydroelectric...

INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN

ECUADOR: A CASE STUDY OF HYDROELECTRIC PRODUCTION &

DROUGHTS

WATER RESOURCES PROJECT:

Coordinators: Edison Heredia-Calderón Remigio H. Galarraga-Sánchez

Participants: Alexandre Gagnon

Andrea Ray

Claudine Dereczynski

Giampaolo Orlandoni

Ileana Mora

Marcos Costa

Patricia Jaime

Simone Ferraz

Thomas Pagano

WATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL

RAINFALL-RUNOFF TRANSFORMATIONBY CONCEPTUAL MATHEMATICAL MODEL

HIDROELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY

OBJECTIVE

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND HYDROELECTRIC POWER GENERATION

CLIMATE VARIABILITYPHYSICAL DAM CAPACITY

WATER RESERVES MANAGEMENTTO SATISFY THE POWER DEMANDGIVEN THE RESTRICTION POSED

BY

CLIMATOLOGY DISCHARGES

ENERGY DEMAND

HYDROELECTRICPOWER

GENERATION

Calculate rainfall anomalies in terms of variance

PA = P – P p

where

P : mean precipitationp: standard deviation of precipitation

Monthly precipitation anomalies correlated with SST anomalies in region

•SST in region Niño1+2, Niño 3, and Niño 4•SOI

Identification of ENSO signal on the climate of Ecuador

The Relationship Between SOI and Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

SST in Region Niño 1+2 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

SST in Region Niño 3 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

SSTA Niño 1+2 versus rainfall anomaliesin Portoviejo

Correlation Between Strong El Niño versus Rainfall Anomalies in Coastal Ecuador

Monthly Average Precipitation at Paute (1963-1999)

Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 1+2 at Paute

Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 3 at Paute

Monthly Precipitation versus SOI at Paute

Niño4 SST Anomaly Sep-Dec versus Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow at Paute 1968-95

1970

North Atlantic SSTA Feb-Mar-Apr Average correlated with Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow

at Paute

Hydroelectric power production at Paute river

• Mean yearly inflow discharge for normal, dry and wet years.

• Cumulated mass (discharge and volume) x inflow volumes for wet, dry and normal years

MEAN YEARLY INFLOW DISCHARGE AT PAUTE

CUMULATED MASS CURVES (Discharge and Volume)

DAILY ENERGY PRODUCTION, INFLOW AND RESERVOIR ELEVATION (OCT, 1995)

RAINFALL - RUNOFF MODEL " N L C "

DEFINITION OF THE MODEL

• NLC is aimed at simulation of outflow from natural catchments.

conceptual model consisting of storage (linear and nonlinear)

elements.

• NLC represents a single, two-component, rainfall-runoff model capable of modeling groundwater flow and direct runoff.

• NLC is a lumped type MODE

the input into the model is total rainfall over the catchment in each time

interval.

Input Data

• Rainfall is provided at each simulation step. It could be supplied in two ways:

- up to ten rain gauges

- areal averages.

• Calibration procedure is not part of the package. Trial-and-error procedure must be used.

MODEL VARIABLES

• PA input precipitation (mm)

• ETP evapotranspiration (mm)

• PE effective precipitation (mm)

• Qs direct runoff (m3/s)

• GI groundwater input (m3/s)

• Qg groundwater runoff (m3/s)

• Q total runoff (m3/s)

• QDD deep percolation (mm)

• parameters of the unsaturated zone

- ENN maximum water holding capacity (mm)

- EF actual water content (mm)

• Other parameters

Simulated and Observed Discharge at Paute - 1989

Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

M050 ARENALES - COLA DE SAN PABLO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

M067 CUENCA AEROPUERTO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

M541 COCHAPAMBA QUINGEO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

M418 CUMBE PRECIPITACION MEDIA

M138 PAUTE PRECIPITACION MEDIA