implementando la inteligencia en logística
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IMPLEMENTANDOLAINTELIGENCIA
ENLOGSTICA
Aldo Alexis Cea Ramrez /2014
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What happened?
Standard
reports
How many, how often, where?
Ad hoc
reports
Where exactly is the problem?Query
drill down
Why is this happening?Statistical
Analysis
What if these trends continue?
Forecast
What will happen next? Predict
What is the best that can happen?
What actions are needed?Alerts
Raw
data
Clean
data
Optimise
Competitive
Advantage
Degree of Intelligence
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VISUALISATION& STATISTICALANALYSIS
Quickly find related
patterns within a set ofdata.
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ASSOCIATIONS Identifying events
that occur together,potentially with asequence or order.
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SEGMENTATION
Create groups that have
similar characteristics. Also ameasure of how different eachgroup is from the others.
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SEGMENTATIONPhysician Group A
Large practice, Strong formulary, Hard to see
Physician Group B
Small Practice, Weak formulary, Easy to see
Physician Group C
GI Specialists, existing prescribers of Brand B
Create groups that have
similar characteristics. Also ameasure of how different eachgroup is from the others.
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G T E W V G H U I B C X A
Q W E T D F G J K O I U T
C M N X H G A L O J U T Q
A Z C F T E R T N J H Y U
O P H Y R M W S D F M N BV H J U Y T I P Q A P G F
S D W V B U I N S W B C Z
A L K J T M A P I O I U XF E W I Y N H K D N Q U P
Q P S F T E M X T R G E O
G TE W V G H U I B C X A
Q W ET D F G J K O I U T
C M N XH G A L O J U T Q
A Z C F TE R T N J H Y U
O P H Y RMW S D F M N BV H J U Y T IP Q A P G F
S D W V B U INS W B C Z
A L K J T M A P IO I U XF E W I Y N H K DNQ U P
Q P S F T E M X T R GE O
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TIMESERIESFORECASTING
Observations repeated over
time, with past values andother factors being used topredict future values.
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PREDICTIVEMODELLING
What are the chances of an event
occurring some future point in time?
Should an event occur, what is the impact
or amount involved?
100,000 observations
YES = 40%
NO= 60%
30,000
YES = 10%
NO= 90%
70,000
YES = 53%
NO= 47%
Age < 35Age > 35
25,000
YES = 8%
NO= 92%
45,000
YES = 78%
NO= 22%
Income < 30kIncome > 30k
Laye
r
Input
tanh(+ age+income)=A
+ age+income
+ A +B +C
Act ivat ion
Combinat ion
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SIMULATION
Understand the impact ofchanging conditions based on
different scenarios.
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CONSTRAINTBASEDOPTIMISATION
given you can only turn left nine times and back once?
How quickly can you get from the start to the end
What is the right thing to do to
maximise or minimise anobjective given a number oflimitations.
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MODELMANAGEMENT
Make accurate, fact-based decisions
using the right method at the right time.
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Standard
reports
Ad hoc
reports
Query
drill down
Statistical
Analysis
Forecast
Predict
Alerts
Raw
data
Clean
data
Optimise
Competitive
Advantage
Degree of Intelligence
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ITSNOTMAGIC!
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Ensure the predicted Rx occur and
that the model is consistently
monitored and improved.
Deployment Monitor
Decision
Build a method to determine the
optimum marketing activity and
deployment of sales resources
.
Predictive Modelling
EXAMPLE
Visualisation Identify VariablesDetermine which elements are useful
in predicting whether a particular
brand will be prescribed
Determine what is
prescribers normal
behaviour.
Segmentation
Associations
VisualisationPrescriber
Profiles
Pharmaceuticalsales data, rep activity
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IMPLEMENTANDOLAINTELIGENCIAENLOGSTICA
Aldo Alexis Cea Ramrez /2014
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