impact 5 november 20044th impact workshop - zaragoza1 investigation of extreme flood processes and...

IMPACT

5 November 2004 4th IMPACT Workshop - Zaragoza 1

Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

UniBwM Breach Modelling

Dr.-Ing. Karl Broich

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Content

• Breach Model DEICH_P• Test cases

- Field Test cases - Laboratory Test cases

• Breach Analysis - Monte Carlo Analysis using MCAT

- Tous Test case

• Breach Location - Identifying Breach Locations

- Breach analysis a long embankment dam line

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

DEICH_P : a Dam Erosion Model with Initial Breach

Characteristic using a Parametrical approach

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Algorithm

Q from broadcrested weir formula

Sediment transport

Breach formation

H from QH-relation

Advance in time

Iteration

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Process Structure

DEICH_P

MCAT

FLOODSIM

Monte Carlo Analysis Tool

2d-numerical SWE-solver

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Data Structure

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Erosion modes

• mode 1 : non cohesive without core• mode 2 : non cohesive with core• mode 3 : cohesive with discrete erosion

- head cut - approach- “Weißmann” - approach

• mode 4 : cohesive with continuous erosion

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Initial breach modes

• mode 1 : breach notch• mode 2 : piping

Coverage resistance

According to CIRIA-experiments

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Breach Formation

a. Br each for m at ion par al lel to dam c r est

b. Br each for m at ion wi th r ot at ion abou t ds dam foo t

c . Br each fo r m at ion par al lel to ds dam face

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Breach Formation without core

Dam foot, Upstream

Dam crest

H0

Datum

l1

Hs

Hu 0

Hd

HK

1

mo

1

mu

Dam foot, Downstream

hw0

b K

l0zs

zb

b1/ 2

b0/ 2

Ab/ 2

As/ 2

/ 2

1

mb

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Model DEICH_P

Breach Formation with core

Dam foot, Upstream

Dam crest

H0

Datum

Core

de lK

wow e0

wuw

l0

Hs HK0 Hu0 Hd

HK

e1 d11 1

1

1

mo m u

mKu

mKo Dam foot,

Downstream

hw0

t = t1

t = t2

t = t3

a. Core sealing

b. Surface sealing

Dam core

Dam material

Impermeable ground

Alluvial

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Field Test Case 1

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Field Test Case 2

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Field Test Case 3

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Field Test Case 4

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Field Test Case 5

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 2

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 4

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 5

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 6

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 7

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 9

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 10

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 11

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 12

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 13

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 14

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 15

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 16

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Test cases

Laboratory Test Case 17

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Analysis

Monte Carlo Analysis using MCAT

MCAT-software of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine London.

The core of the toolbox is based on the concept of Regional Sensitivity

Analysis (RSA, Spear and Hornberger, 1980; Hornberger and Spear, 1981), and its extension to the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique developed at Lancaster University by Beven and coworkers (Beven and Binley, 1992; Freer et al., 1996). In GLUE no single optimum parameter set is identified, rather a set of behavioural models are selected where each model has a certain likelihood (pseudo probability) of being the correct representation of the system. This method recognises that it is not possible to identify a single best model in the face of model/data error.

MCAT is implemented for MATLAB.

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Analysis

Tous Test case : Given data

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Analysis

Tous Test case : Sample rate

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Analysis

Tous Test case : Procedure

Fix Model Parameters using GLUE

MC-Variation on Input Parameters

If calibration data is given:

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Analysis

Tous Test case : Fixing

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Analysis

Tous Test case : Variation Erosion Mode 1

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Analysis

Tous Test case : Variation Erosion Mode 2

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

All upper-mid-lower resultsComparison of Tous Breach Modelling Data

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000

Time(s)

Ou

tflo

w(m

^3

/s)

Given_OutflowCemagref_UpperCemagref_MeanCemagref_LowerDeich_P_UpperDeich_P_MeanDeich_P_LowerHR_UpperHR_MeanHR_Lower

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Location

Case study areas

MangfallIller

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Location

Identifying Breach Locations : Test case Iller River

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Location

Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line

DEICH_PFLOODSIM

Module in 2d-numerical SWE-solver

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Location

Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line

Calculation a long lines(multiple breach locations)

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Location

Calculation a long lines(multiple breach locations)

Mangfall River – an example

Breach Analysis a long embankment dam line

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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

Breach Location

Breach Risk Analysis for Levees – a proposal

P ~ 1/