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ICAO GLOBAL AVIATION SAFETY PLAN (GASP)
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Tatiana PakOperational Safety SectionAir Navigation Bureau, ICAO
28-30 November 2017, Busan
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What is GASP?
All regional accident rates are less than double the Global Accident Rate
Accident rate stable, with 2016 the lowest ever recorded Fatalities showed a spike during 2014, and then recovered in 2015 & 2016
Accident rate stable, with 2016 the lowest ever recordedFatalities showed a spike during 2014, and then recovered in 2015 & 2016All regional accident rates are less than double the Global Accident Rate
Source: 2017 Safety Report (https://www.icao.int/safety/Pages/Safety-Report.aspx)
STATE OF AVIATION SAFETY
7 December 2017 3
We are not that far…Regional Accident Statistics: 2015Regional Accident Statistics: 2013
Regional Accident Statistics: 2014
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Regional Accident Statistics: 2016
For 2016PA (NACC/SAM) and AFI (WACAF/ESAF)
ZERO fatalities
7 December 2017
Air traffic is predicted to double by 2030
How can we ensure thesafe realization of this growth?
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Freight Tonne-Kilometres
(billion)
Growth of Air Transport
Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services6Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council
205 billion FTK
+3.8%vs. 2015
7.1trillion RPK
+7.4%growth rate vs. 2015
What is the Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)?High level, strategic, planning and implementation policy document that:
Sets strategy for maintaining & improving safety
Establishes framework for development & implementation of plans
Promotes harmonization and coordination of efforts
GASP
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1997 2006 2013 20152005
ICAO introduced first version
of GASP
Roadmap presented
at DGCA/06 with good feedback
2014-2016 GASP
A38 urged ICAO to
develop a roadmap for GASP
GASP Roadmap
Group established to update
GASP
2017-2019 GASP
published with new roadmap
2016
Industry Safety
Strategy Group
created roadmap
GASP Objectives
2017 (Near Term)
2022 (Mid Term)
2028 (Long Term)
Effective safety oversight SSPImplementation
Predictive risk management
RASGs and other fora: mechanisms for sharing of
safety information
RASGs:mature regional
monitoring and safety management programmes
States with El > 60%: SSP implementation
All States: achieve 60 % EI of CEs
All States: SSP implementation
All States:Implement advanced
safety oversight systems, including predictive risk
management
GASP Framework
National and Regional Plans• States and regions to develop their own national and regional
plans– Based on GASP and roadmap– Define specific activities to improve safety at regional and
national levels
• National, regional aviation safety plans help stakeholders prioritize actions – To achieve GASP objectives– Address global safety priorities
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Safety Priorities: Operational Risks
Runway Safety related (RS)
Loss of Control-Inflight(LOC-I)
Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)
LOC-I
Other accident priorities?
(i.e. by Region)
267 December 2017
Current and Emerging Issues
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Human Factors RPAS Space TransportationConflict Zones
What’s next?
7 December 2017
Implementation Status
Effective implementation (%) results through USOAP CMA
Global average increase of 1.5% per year
63,79%
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Implementation Status
EI > 60% SSP Implementation Predictive Risk Management
Main Challenges• Member States:
– Lack of resources for effective safety oversight & SSP– Need for cooperation with Regions and Industry– Development of appropriate SPIs for SMS/SSP
• ICAO:– Need mechanism for direct support to States and regions– Greater focus should be on implementation support
Proposals for Enhancement of GASP• Global Aviation Safety programme
(GASp)• Focus on implementation support
(workshops and tools)• Establishment of GASP-SG
7 December 2017 18
Next Steps• GASP-SG progressing revision of GASP
for 2020-2022 Ed.
• Workshops at RASG Meetings– APAC, MID and EUR/NAT completed– AFI scheduled for Q1 2018
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GANIS/SANIS: FORUM FOR DISCUSSIONS TOWARDS 13TH AN-CONFERENCE
Global Plans and Importance of Global Interoperability
7 December 2017 20
7 December 2017 21
40th Assembly(2019)
Council Working
Paper(2018)
13th Air Navigation Conference
(2018)
GANIS/SANIS(Dec 2017)
NEEDS / REQUIREMENTS
GANIS/SANIS will facilitate the planning of technical work for AN-Conf/13, and also the budget discussions leading up to A40
Our Aspirational Safety Goal
THANK YOU!
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