ic-cae - shepherd: the internet 2015-2025

www.ShepherdsPi.com

“What technologies

will be required

over the next 10 years

to protect U.S. interests?”

An Exercise in Prediction

What if we had asked that question,

15 years ago?

“Asymmetric adversary” = an information challenge

(i.e. = intel hard target)

Seeming irrelevance of traditional methods for new targets

- Order of battle

- State-to-state analysis

- “Kremlinological” approaches

- Staid, “authoritative Core Knowledge” repositories

Challenges of IT during wartime- Stress on systems infrastructure of 2 wars (3?)

- Stress on software (link-analysis, SNA, “search”)

- Stress on collection capacity (sensor grids, Internet)

- Stress on integrity of systems & comms (“cybersecurity”)

- Stress on analysts’ – and technologists’ – imagination

Some IC Surprises Post-9/11

Pace of Technology Change continued along Moore’s Law

Lines of Business disrupted by Internet and related tech

- Communications biz ( -> mobile, transnational, price drops)

- PC biz (laptops, tablets, smartphones)

- Music biz (iTunes, streaming)

- Media biz (near-death print, narrowcasting, ad revolution)

Increasing Role of USG in shaping/governing Internet policy

Private Sector Surprises Post-9/11

• Technological Change

• Difficulties in Supporting USG

• Globalization

Future Business Challenges

New Innovation, New Opportunities

Natural User

InterfacesSocial

Media

Augmented

Reality

Big Data

Machine

Learning

Collaboration Cloud & Services

Cyber

Security

Mobility

Ambient Computing

Machine Learning

Two core themes

of advanced R&D

Two core themes

of advanced R&D

The next paradigm shift: Ambient Computing

Important Implications of these two:

Machine learning is the ability for computers to learn

automatically from data to improve their future

performance continually.

Ambient computing refers to having computing devices,

embedded all around in the environment, that can

understand people’s intent and operate on their behalf.

Machine learning

Ambient computing

Consumer play from these waves:

An era where we move beyond the

personal computer to a world where

computing all around us becomes

more personal.

Government relevance of these waves:

• Unique and insanely powerful mission applications

• Government workforce and workplace transformed

by the Consumer transformation

Government missed 3 recent paradigm shifts…

badly.

1980 1990 2000 2010

Imagine if the WWII War Department had refused to

use telephones because of a Security argument citing

“Person-in-the-middle” re switchboards, or “Endpoint

vulnerability” re Party-lines?

Source: ComScore Reports, March 2014

Globalization

• Technological Change

• Difficulties in Supporting USG

• Globalization

Policy Challenges

Company data sources; Kleiner-Perkins research

Big Data is being used to

solve problems…

PolicyFrom three facets

1 2 3

Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith

Legal

Pace of technological

change outpaces

regulatory expertise

1 2 3

Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith

Defense Science Board 2015 Summer Study on Autonomy

…identify the science, engineering, and policy problems

that must be solved to permit greater operational use of

autonomy across all war-fighting domains…

…exploration of the bounds – both technological and

social – that limit the use of autonomy across a wide range of

military operations….”

Five Agreed-upon Principles, which

as a set are consistent with established

global norms of free expression and

privacy

Principles are designed to ensure that

governments’ law-enforcement and

intelligence efforts are:

• Rule-bound

• Narrowly tailored

• Transparent

• Subject to oversight

Brad Smith, December 8, 2013 press release

We’ll be watching as

technologies,

cultures,

governments

collide…