ian copsey integrated ta

Integrated Technical Integrated Technical AnalysisAnalysis

A guide to strengthening A guide to strengthening technical signalstechnical signals

Chartpoint Issue #1Chartpoint Issue #1

February 2002February 2002 It would appear therefore, that a base is forming It would appear therefore, that a base is forming

in the weekly chart around the inner support line. in the weekly chart around the inner support line. Note also that the upper resistance band rests Note also that the upper resistance band rests around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the daily cyclic picture suggests a low in September. daily cyclic picture suggests a low in September. From here the move up through the 0.5700 area From here the move up through the 0.5700 area should commence with the next target around should commence with the next target around 0.6550 looking possible by the end of 2003 at the 0.6550 looking possible by the end of 2003 at the latest. It may be reached even earlier with a latest. It may be reached even earlier with a breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher prices.prices.

FX-Strategy UpdateFX-Strategy Update

1818thth June 2003 June 2003 Away from our usual analysis we note that Away from our usual analysis we note that

the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a level that should hold for 12-18 months. level that should hold for 12-18 months.

The risk to this scenario will be a direct The risk to this scenario will be a direct move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-0.6850 area in which case follow-through 0.6850 area in which case follow-through higher would be implied. Next resistance is higher would be implied. Next resistance is around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.

Market FactorsMarket Factors

PricePrice– TrendingTrending– Non-trendingNon-trending– DirectionDirection

MomentumMomentum– StrongStrong– WeakWeak

TimeTime– CyclesCycles

Price ForecastingPrice Forecasting

Support and ResistanceSupport and Resistance TrendTrend Retracement TargetsRetracement Targets Projection TargetsProjection Targets Timing Trend ReversalsTiming Trend Reversals

Technical ToolsTechnical Tools

Elliott WaveElliott Wave -- StructureStructure CyclesCycles -- TimingTiming IndicatorsIndicators -- TrendTrend

-- MomentumMomentum

(Consolidation)(Consolidation)

Elliott WaveElliott Wave

StructureStructure TrendsTrends

– Impulsive, numbered wavesImpulsive, numbered waves– Corrective, lettered wavesCorrective, lettered waves

Fibonacci & wave relationshipsFibonacci & wave relationships Elliott GuidelinesElliott Guidelines

Impulsive WavesImpulsive Waves

StandardStandard ExtendedExtended

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

(2)

1

2

3

4

(3) (3) 55

(4)

(5)

Impulsive WavesImpulsive Waves

Corrective WavesCorrective Waves

Zig-ZagZig-Zag Double ZigZag Double ZigZag Triple Three Triple Three

(A)

(B)

(C)

(A)

(B)

(C)

(X)

(A)

(B)

(C)

Corrective WavesCorrective Waves

FibonacciFibonacci

Fibonacci SequenceFibonacci Sequence0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 1440, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 Fibonacci RatiosFibonacci Ratios144144 = 1.618= 1.618 8989 = 1.618 = 1.618 5555 = 1.618 = 1.618

8989 5555 3434

8989 = 0.618= 0.618 5555 = 0.6180 = 0.6180 3434 = = 0.6180.618

144144 8989 5555

Also:Also:0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764, 1.00, 1.382, 1.618, 2.6180.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764, 1.00, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618

Fibonacci and Elliott Fibonacci and Elliott WaveWaveWave 2 = Wave 1 x 0.236, 0.382, Wave 2 = Wave 1 x 0.236, 0.382, 0.50, 0.6180.50, 0.618 or 0.764 or 0.764

Wave 3 = Wave 1 x Wave 3 = Wave 1 x 1.618, 2.6181.618, 2.618 or 4.236 or 4.236

Wave 4 = Wave 3 x 0.236 or Wave 4 = Wave 3 x 0.236 or 0.3820.382

Wave 5 = (Wave 1 -> Wave 3) x 0.236, 0.382, Wave 5 = (Wave 1 -> Wave 3) x 0.236, 0.382, 0.6180.618, , 0.7640.764

Wave B = Wave A x 0.236, 0.382, Wave B = Wave A x 0.236, 0.382, 0.50, 0.6180.50, 0.618, 0.764, 0.764

Wave C = Wave A x 0.618, 0.764, Wave C = Wave A x 0.618, 0.764, 1.001.00, 1.382, , 1.382, 1.618, 1.618, 2.6182.618

Elliott’s RulesElliott’s Rules

Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1of wave 1

Wave 3 is never the shortest of the Wave 3 is never the shortest of the impulsive wavesimpulsive waves

The extremes of wave 1 and Wave 4 The extremes of wave 1 and Wave 4 will never overlap in a 5 wave structurewill never overlap in a 5 wave structure

Elliott’s GuidelinesElliott’s Guidelines

AlternationAlternation– If Wave 2 is simple, wave 4 is likely to be If Wave 2 is simple, wave 4 is likely to be

complexcomplex

Wave 4 and Wave BWave 4 and Wave B– The extremes of Wave 4 and Wave B are likely to The extremes of Wave 4 and Wave B are likely to

provide support/resistance on a retestprovide support/resistance on a retest

Correction after Wave 5Correction after Wave 5– Following an extended wave 5 the first correction will Following an extended wave 5 the first correction will

normally move to the extreme of the wave (ii) of normally move to the extreme of the wave (ii) of Wave 5Wave 5

Applying FibonacciApplying Fibonacci

Support & Resistance ~ Support & Resistance ~ TrendsTrends

Support & ResistanceSupport & Resistance

Support & ResistanceSupport & Resistance

Time CyclesTime Cycles

Time CyclesTime Cycles

SynchronizationSynchronization HarmonizationHarmonization ProportionalityProportionality SummationSummation

Time CyclesTime Cycles

Applying CyclesApplying Cycles

February 2002February 2002 It would appear therefore, that a base is forming It would appear therefore, that a base is forming

in the weekly chart around the inner support line. in the weekly chart around the inner support line. Note also that the upper resistance band rests Note also that the upper resistance band rests around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking around the strategic 0.5700 pivot area. Looking further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the further out, after achieving the 0.5700 pivot, the daily cyclic picture suggests a low in daily cyclic picture suggests a low in SeptemberSeptember. . From here the move up through the From here the move up through the 0.57000.5700 area area should commence with the next target around should commence with the next target around 0.65500.6550 looking possible by the end of 2003 at the looking possible by the end of 2003 at the latest. It may be reached even earlier with a latest. It may be reached even earlier with a breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher breach of 0.6550 implying immediately higher prices. prices.

Applying CyclesApplying Cycles

Technical IndicatorsTechnical Indicators

TrendingTrending– ADXADX– Moving AveragesMoving Averages

ConsolidationConsolidation– RSIRSI– StochasticsStochastics

Support & ResistanceSupport & Resistance– Bollinger BandsBollinger Bands– MCT Adaptive Moving Average BandsMCT Adaptive Moving Average Bands

Technical IndicatorsTechnical Indicators

Technical IndicatorsTechnical Indicators

IntegrationIntegration

IntegrationIntegration

Aussie DollarAussie Dollar

1818thth June 2003 June 2003 Away from our usual analysis we note that Away from our usual analysis we note that

the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial the Aussie Dollar is also reaching crucial resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a resistance at 0.6725-45 which we feel is a level that should hold for 12-18 months. level that should hold for 12-18 months.

The risk to this scenario will be a direct The risk to this scenario will be a direct move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-move higher that quickly clears the 0.6745-0.6850 area in which case follow-through 0.6850 area in which case follow-through higher would be implied. Next resistance is higher would be implied. Next resistance is around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.around the 0.7100 - 0.7250 area.

Aussie DollarAussie Dollar

Aussie DollarAussie Dollar

Dollar-YenDollar-Yen

Dollar-YenDollar-Yen

Euro - DollarEuro - Dollar

Euro - DollarEuro - Dollar

Dollar - SwissDollar - Swiss

Dollar - SwissDollar - Swiss

CableCable

CableCable

Daily AnalysisDaily Analysis

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