human face of development vladimir gligorov. contents river and peoples mobility dealing with...
Post on 21-Jan-2016
216 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Human Face of Development
Vladimir Gligorov
Contents
• River and peoples• Mobility• Dealing with institutions• Diverging development• Dealing with transition and crisis• Labour demand and skills• Conclusion
River and Peoples
• River is like an infrastructure investment• It is a source of externalities and
agglomeration• Favours urbanisation and diversity• Supports industry and services, especially
trade and finance
Mobility and labour market
• Danube provides for increased advantages to mobility of goods, capital, services, ideas and people
• Migration provides for larger labour market and better allocation of capabilities
• Also, traditionally, and escape route
Dealing with Institutions
• Externalities and human agglomeration are supportive of development with the right institutions
• However, distributional problems can be hard to solve
• Both in the case of the common goods and common bads
• Traditionally, institutions mismanaged
Diverging Development
• The difference in development (human capital, structure of production, income levels) is quite high and persistent
• In a sense, development does not seem to travel downstream
Dealing with Transition and Crisis
• Transition has not brought tremendous successes in convergence
• It has been hard on employment• It has not supported industrialisation in a
number of Danube countries• It has favoured capital cities over the rest of
the countries• Crisis has reversed some of the gains and
added to the institutional problems
Transition and Crisis• Convergence limited (not sustained) and often
divergence• Uneven industrial development• Significant imbalances – especially in external
balances in most countries• Labour market underperformance: low
employment levels and high unemployment levels
• Strong effects of the crisis• Capital flow reversal
De- and re-industrialization processes continue to be decisive(Industrial production – level relative to 1989: 1995, 2000, 2008)
ES
GR
IE
IT PT
KZ
RU
TR
UAEE
LT
LV
BA
BG
HR
ME
MK
RO
RS CZ
HU
PL
SI
SK
-20
-10
010
20
Cu
mula
ted
re
al G
DP
gro
wth
200
8-2
01
1
-40 -20 0 20Cumulated gross industrial production growth 2008-2011
Development of GDP and gross industrial production, 2008-2011
Industrial production contracting more strongly than GDP
Source: wiiw Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, own calculations.
Source: Eurostat.
Youth unemployment (15-24) and long-term unemployment (more than 12 months) have increased strongly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
tota
l
lon
g-t
erm
yout
h (1
5-2
4)
EU-27 BG CZ EE LV LT HU PL RO SI SK HR
3Q 2008 3Q 2011
External imbalances: composition of the current account of the balance of payments, 2000-2010, in % of GDP
Source: wiiw Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics.
Source: BIS.
Foreign banks reduce their balance sheets in Southeast Europe, Russia and Ukraine
Consolidated foreign claims on banks, USD million
Labour Demand and Skills
• In a number of countries skill levels are higher than the GDP per capita warrants
• In addition to this structural problem, the overall demand for employment is low
• The policy of austerity is contributing negatively to the labour market
• Employment falling fast in most countries• And long-term unemployment is increasing,
which suggests significant loss in human capital
Conclusion
• There are significant convergence potentials• Policy framework inadequate• High human cost
top related