how democratic energy fits the rural electric philosophy

T H E C O M I N G D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y F U T U R E

E L E C T R O N S O N T H E R U N

John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy

March 12, 2014

Two Themes

S E L F - R E L I A N C E

E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T

D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y I N T H E 2 0 T H C E N T U R Y

S E L F - R E L I A N C E

E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T

P E R C E N T O F FA R M S W I T H E L E C T R I C S E R V I C E

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

!

Volunteers for REA went door-to-door signing up farmers for $5 a share.

Runestone Electric Association

S E L F - R E L I A N C E

What REA service means to our farm home

Lights Radio

Refrigerator Washing machine

By Rose Dudley Scearce Member, Shelby (Ky.) Rural Electric Cooperative

E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T

Clothes iron Electric range

Electric water pump Vacuum cleaner

Source: New Deal Network

E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T

“The REA loans contributed significantly to increases in crop output and crop productivity”

Source: Flip the Switch: The Spatial Impact of the Rural Electrification Administration 1935-1940 (December 2013)

D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y I N T H E 2 1 S T C E N T U R Y

S E L F - R E L I A N C E

E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T

VA L U A B L E

$0.00

$0.03

$0.06

$0.08

$0.11

$0.14

Brown energy replacement

Avoided transmission losses

Environmental (RPS compliance)

Avoided transmission access

Local capacity value

(per kWh)

Minnesota Value of SolarUtilities value DG

14.5¢*

$??? billion in energy exports

$20 billion in energy exports

$20 billion in potential

By turning energy imports into local energy production

Total Economic Impact

Locally Owned Renewable Energy

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E

Not local

0 25 50 75 100

very negative negative neutral positive very positive

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E

Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy

Not local

0 25 50 75 100

very negative negative neutral positive very positive

-44%

+33%

+77% net approvalLocal

Ownership

C O S T- E F F E C T I V E

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

Past Now Future

Subsidized Solar Parity

Unsubsidized Solar Parity

S O L A R PA R I T Y

¢ per kilowatt-hour

How fast are electricity prices rising?

0¢

3¢

6¢

9¢

12¢

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

R A P I D LY R I S I N G AV E R A G E R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S ( R U N E S T O N E )

???% per year

0¢

3¢

6¢

9¢

12¢

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

R A P I D LY R I S I N G AV E R A G E R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S ( R U N E S T O N E )

¢ per kilowatt-hourSource: EIA

4.7% per year

0¢

10¢

20¢

30¢

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average Retail PriceSolar No SubsidySolar w/ ITCSolar w/ ITC+MACRS

S O L A R “ PA R I T Y ” H E R E ?

¢ per kilowatt-hour

P O T E N T I A L

POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL

RENEWABLES

100% or more 50 to 100% 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 10% or less

L O C A L R E N E W A B L E P O T E N T I A L

32 states - 100%+

O P P O R T U N I T Y

Distributed Solar Potential at Parity (unsubsidized) by 2022 (residential and commercial MW)

8500

590

750

30,000

16,000

7200

11,000

1800

990

360012,000

780

7000

8200

510011,000

190026,0002400

7300

5100

360

26001100

1200

800

14004800

1800

32,000

5000

580

970

2300

4100

4400

2900

7200

6800

2800

7100

11,000

11,000

550010,000

12,000

20

1140700

4000

Percent of Sales1-5%5-10%10% or more

C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R

Wright-Hennepin Cooperative Electric Association Lake Region Electric Cooperative

L O C A L G E N E R AT I O NSaving $100 million in new power infrastructure

Long Island Power Authority

L O C A L P O W E R

S A N TA F EB O U L D E R

2x Coal

Local studies suggest the cities could double

renewable energy on the local grid at a comparable

cost of electricity

T H A N K Y O U !

http://www.ilsr.org/initiatives/energy/

S E L F - R E L I A N C E

E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T