how can we increase our capacity to predict ecosystem responses to environmental change?

How can we increase our capacity to predict ecosystem responses to

environmental change?

Cayetano Gutiérrez-Cánovas; David Sánchez-Fernández; Núria Bonada; Ian P. Vaughan; Steve J.

Ormerod; Andrés Millán & Josefa Velasco

Environmentalchange

Ecosystem functioning

Community structure

Ecosystem goods and

services

Beta-diversity gradients

Regional diversity

Population dynamics

Habitat filtering:Response traits

Community and ecosystem ecology: biodiversity-function relationship

Diversity Community composition

Odum (1985)

Effect traits

Big challenge: Predicting the consequences of environmental change

• Are there predictable patterns in response to chronic stress at ecosystem scale?

• How habitat filtering modifies beta-diversity? • How habitat filtering shapes functional

ecosystem features?• Can we get any insights from naturally

stressed ecosystems?

How habitat filtering modifies beta-diversity?

GUTIÉRREZ-CÁNOVAS, C.; MILLÁN, A; VELASCO, J.; VAUGHAN, I.P. & ORMEROD, S.J. 2013. Contrasting effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on beta-diversity in river organisms. Global Ecology and Biogeography 22(7): 796-805.

Expected responses to increased stress

P<0.001; R2=0.92 P<0.001; R2=0.93

P<0.001; R2=0.91 P<0.001; R2=0.64 P<0.001; R2=0.83

How habitat filtering shapes functional ecosystem features?

GUTIÉRREZ-CÁNOVAS, C.; SÁNCHEZ-FERNÁNDEZ, D.; VELASCO, J.; MILLÁN, A. & BONADA, N. Similar functional diversity trends in response to natural and anthropogenic stressors.

• Predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change is one of the most challenging tasks for scientists

• Historical stress set predictable conditions: adaptation

• Novel stressors may be entirely new: exaptation?• Some traits arose in response to historical stress

may provide tolerance to modern stressors• Some traits allow tolerating stress other are

sensitive.• Common patterns of functional response may be

expectable for a subset of traits

• Advantages: –Mechanistic relationship with

environment: ecosystem response and functioning

–Lower biogeographical influence–Better across-taxon comparability–Development of adequate databases

and statistical techniques

Why using a trait-based niche?

We compared trends of functional diversity change of stream insects along stress gradients with contrasting historical persistence (i.e. natural and anthropogenic stresses) to look for general patterns in response to stress. Niche features:

a. Mean taxon functional richness (tFRic)b. Functional similarity (FSim)c. Functional richness (FRic)d. Functional dispersion (FDis)e. Functional redundancy (FR)

Objective

Expected responses to increased stress

Mean Taxon functional richness (tRic)Taxon 1Taxon 2Taxon 3Taxon 4Taxon 5Taxon 6

f

e

d

c

a b

Taxon 1Taxon 2Taxon 3Taxon 4Taxon 5Taxon 6

c

ab

bc

Functional similarity (FSim)

b

a

d

cd

Functional richness (FRic)Taxon 1Taxon 2Taxon 3Taxon 4Taxon 5Taxon 6

Area filled by the convex hull

+

Functional dispersion (FDis)Taxon 1Taxon 2Taxon 3Taxon 4Taxon 5Taxon 6

Functional redundancy (FR)Taxon 1Taxon 2Taxon 3Taxon 4Taxon 5Taxon 6

c

a

b

P<0.001; R2=0.65 P<0.001; R2=0.19

P<0.001; R2=0.35 P<0.001; R2=0.13

Salinity Land use

P<0.001; R2=0.69 P<0.001; R2=0.41

P<0.001; R2=0.16 P<0.001; R2=0.23

P<0.001; R2=0.72 P<0.001; R2=0.36

Null models

1. Natural and anthropogenic stressors generate contrasting patterns in beta diversity that arise through different mechanisms.

2. However, functional diversity components responded similarly to both types of stress

3. Four out the five niche features and nestedness showed non-random responses when compare with null models, for both datasets

4. These insights may help to predict the consequences of global change

5. Useful to elucidate the historical colonization of stressful habitats

6. Important conservation implications may emerge from these results

Conclusions

Thanks for your attention!Thanks to the members of the Ecología Acuática research group that contributed to collect and identify the samples and the authors who provided raw data in their publications, making possible to gather the databases employed in these studies.

More info: @tano_gc and www.um.es/ecoaqua