how andrew bartholomew was found: oceanography in action. a status report on the bluelink regional...
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How Andrew Bartholomew was found:oceanography in action.
A status report on the BlueLink Regional Analysis
David Griffin
10 Dec 2004
Bluelink Regional Analysis: credits
• RA staff: Madeleine Cahill, Jeff Dunn, Jim Mansbridge, Chris Rathbone, Ken Ridgway
• also: Neil White, Ian Barton, Peter Turner, Glen Smith, Ken Suber, Susan Wijffels, Ann Gronell, Helen Phillips, Peter Campbell
• my predecessors:John Wilkin, Scott Condie
• BlueLink PI: Andreas Schiller
• externals: BoM, RAN, WASTAC, WA DOT, ACRES, MHL, QldEPA, NASA, NOAA, ESA, AOML
10 Dec 2004
Events of 23-24 October 2004
• Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island
10 Dec 2004
Events of 23-24 October 2004
• Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown
10 Dec 2004
Events of 23-24 October 2004
• Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area
10 Dec 2004
Events of 23-24 October 2004
• Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area
• Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift.
10 Dec 2004
Events of 23-24 October 2004
• Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area
• Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift.
• The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by altimetry?
10 Dec 2004
Events of 23-24 October 2004
• Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island
• 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown
• AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area
• Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift.
• The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by altimetry?
• Unfortunately, the details tell a different story
10 Dec 2004
AMSA’s SARTRAK screen for 24 Oct
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How come the search was in the right place?
• At the time of the rescue, it was thought – Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket– The current was to the SE
10 Dec 2004
How come the search was in the right place?
• At the time of the rescue, it was thought – Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket– The current was to the SE
• Subsequently, we learnt that– he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW winds– The current was near zero
10 Dec 2004
How come the search was in the right place?
• At the time of the rescue, it was thought – Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket– The current was to the SE
• Subsequently, we learnt that– he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW winds– The current was near zero
• So it appears we got it right for the wrong reasons
10 Dec 2004
Lesson (no surprise, really)
• The lag, presently about 4 days, between the latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is a problem.
10 Dec 2004
Lesson (no surprise, really)
• The lag, presently about 4 days, between the latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is a problem.
• In this case, the overnight change in the altimetric velocity estimate equalled the rms variability at that point.
10 Dec 2004
solutions
• Reduce the latency of the analysed map– Needs more altimeters– in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable
future
10 Dec 2004
solutions
• Reduce the latency of the analysed map– Needs more altimeters– in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable
future
• Use other types of ocean data– SST observations can be made synoptically– Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion– For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as the
most promising technology
10 Dec 2004
solutions
• Reduce the latency of the analysed map– Needs more altimeters– in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable
future
• Use other types of ocean data– SST observations can be made synoptically– Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion– For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as the
most promising technology
• Use physics to turn recent observations into ocean nowcasts (and short-term forecasts)– This is what the rest of Bluelink is all about
10 Dec 2004
Let me backup….
• 2003-2004 was the golden age of altimetry, with four altimeters flying.
10 Dec 2004
Let me backup….
• 2003-2004 was the golden age of altimetry, with four altimeters flying.
• Unless the wide-swath is embarked on Jason-2 in 2008, this data density will not be reached again for many years.
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Conclusions
• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better.
10 Dec 2004
Conclusions
• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better.
• But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side.
10 Dec 2004
Conclusions
• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better.
• But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side.
• BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims to show that operational oceanography is feasible, and worthwhile
10 Dec 2004
Conclusions
• With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better.
• But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side.
• BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims to show that operational oceanography is feasible, and worthwhile
• The Regional Analysis is an early product of Bluelink that – Gives potential users a taste of what’s to come– Provides a benchmark for the model to beat
10 Dec 2004
Final word
• “Use it or lose it”
10 Dec 2004
Final word
• “Use it or lose it”
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling.
10 Dec 2004
Final word
• “Use it or lose it”
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments
10 Dec 2004
Final word
• “Use it or lose it”
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments
• We need to foster use of ocean information in order to demonstrate societal benefit
10 Dec 2004
Final word
• “Use it or lose it”
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments
• We need to foster use of ocean information in order to demonstrate societal benefit
• Dissemination of data is becoming really easy.
10 Dec 2004
Final word
• “Use it or lose it”
• Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling.
• By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments
• We need to foster use of ocean information in order to demonstrate societal benefit
• Dissemination of data is becoming really easy.
• Legal and commercial considerations are not.
10 Dec 2004
Thank you
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