historic rolls

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James Gillespie’s Primary School:

Rising Rolls

Marchmont and Sciennes Community Council / James Gillespie’s Parent Council

27 February 2013

Lindsay GlasgowAsset Planning ManagerChildren and Families

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Historic Rolls

29,100

34,000

29,400

35,400

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Population Aged 5-11 in the City of Edinburgh 1981-2010

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Projected RollsCEC Projected Population Aged 5-11 & School Rolls

24,500

31,000

29,200

36,100

20,000

24,000

28,000

32,000

36,000

40,000

Proj Roll

GRO Aged 5-11(Rev 08)

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Projected Rolls

• 20% increase between 2012 and 2019• Currently 25,900 pupils in CEC primary

schools• Projected to increase by 5,200 by 2019• Thereafter plateau, then start falling

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Rising Birth RatesNumber of Births in the City of Edinburgh 1991-2001

4,890

4,490

5,600

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

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Rising Birth Rates

• Number of births has risen since 2004• First felt in P1 intakes in 2009• P1 intakes expected to peak in 2015/16• Total primary roll will peak in 2019

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Forecasting Intakes• Large variations at local level; peaks

and troughs• No close correlation between births and

P1 intakes• Changing trends:

▪ Migration across the city ▪ Housing market influence – less people

moving▪ Private sector influence

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Additional Accommodation

• Reuse of existing space, with condition upgrade

• Additional, permanent classrooms being built at four schools for 2013

• Part of an estate wide project with a menu of four standardised designs

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P1 Catchment Numbers at James Gillespie’s Primary School

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JGPS catchment numbers

• Increase in P1 catchment numbers at school of 69% over 6 years

• Catchment numbers have been increasing

• Number of placing requests to other schools decreasing

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Births and Non Denominational Catchment P1 Intakes

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James Gillespie’s 2013 P1 Intake

• Catchment registrations currently 81 pupils

• May have to create 3rd P1 class this year• Monitor numbers – eg 9 deferrals

notified• School would be advised in May of

proposed organisation as part of standard placement process

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South side area: Births & Catchment Numbers(James Gillespie's, Bruntsfield and South Morningside)

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James Gillespie's future intakes

Options:• 60 pupils with 3 teachers – preferred

option – becomes two classes at P2• 66 pupils with 3 teachers – becomes

two classes at P4• 75 pupils – three classes at P1;

subsequent intake would be 70

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Accommodation requirements• 2 classbases in the TUs potentially cover

4 years to deliver a permanent solution▪ An intake of 75 in 2013 would require 15

classes▪ An intake of 70 in 2014 would still be

contained within 15 classes▪ An intake of up to 75 in 2015 would require

the 16th class▪ An intake of 70 in 2016 would still be

contained within the 16 classes

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Permanent solutions

• New School to serve area?• Catchment review?• Permanent new accommodation ?• Annexe accommodation?

What other ideas do the Parent Council have that they would like explored?