hdh dridr dhoward hanson dam rapid response andhoward ... · expected flow based on howard hanson...

H d H D R id R dHoward Hanson Dam Rapid Response andHoward Hanson Dam Rapid Response andHoward Hanson Dam Rapid Response andHoward Hanson Dam Rapid Response and NOAA’ N M bil At h i Ri Ob tNOAA’s New Mobile Atmospheric River ObservatoryNOAA’s New Mobile Atmospheric River ObservatoryNOAA s New Mobile Atmospheric River ObservatoryO s e ob e t osp e c e Obse ato y

Allen White Scott Abbott Jesse Leach Clark King Jim Jordan Dan Gottas Marty Ralph and Robin WebbAllen White, Scott Abbott, Jesse Leach, Clark King, Jim Jordan, Dan Gottas, Marty Ralph, and Robin WebbAllen White, Scott Abbott, Jesse Leach, Clark King, Jim Jordan, Dan Gottas, Marty Ralph, and Robin WebbNOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences DivisionNOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences DivisionNOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

Current model Observed hourly The Problem The Atmospheric River Observatory forecast hourly y

horizontal wind profilesThe Problem The Atmospheric River Observatory forecast hourly h i t l i d

horizontal wind profilesThe Problem The Atmospheric River Observatoryhorizontal winds Forecast freezing level

p yForecast freezing level

Current model from prior model runs for Current model f t f i

pa constant verification forecast freezing a constant verification tilevel timelevel

L d t Observed hourly snow Layer used to ylevelsderive the levelsderive the

upslope Observed GPS upslope- Observed GPS component wind integrated water vaporp g p

Current model Forecast integrated Current model Forecast integrated water vapor from prior forecast water vapor from prior

d l f forecast integrated model runs for a integrated constant verification timewater vapor constant verification timep

Integrated water vapor M th d d f W t C t i t t h Current model

Integrated water vapor AR h h ld f h • More than a decade of West Coast winter storm research Current model AR threshold for heavy More than a decade of West Coast winter storm research

d d i il i CA b PSD h id ifi d h iforecast upslope-

yorographic precipitationconducted primarily in CA by PSD has identified atmospheric

p pcomponent wind

orographic precipitationconducted primarily in CA by PSD has identified atmospheric component wind Upslope wind AR

rivers (ARs) narrow regions of enhanced water vaporUpslope wind AR th h ld f h rivers (ARs), narrow regions of enhanced water vapor Current model threshold for heavy ( ) g p

transport as the culprits that cause extreme precipitation forecast upslope y

orographic precipitation transport, as the culprits that cause extreme precipitation forecast upslope t fl

orographic precipitation t a spo t, as t e cu p ts t at cause e t e e p ec p tat ot h th J 2009 t th t t d HHD

water vapor flux Observed hourly events such as the January 2009 event that stressed HHD Observed hourly l i d devents, such as the January 2009 event that stressed HHD.

Current model upslope wind speeds• PSD extended this AR research to WA by deploying a mobile

Current model f t t l

p p p• PSD extended this AR research to WA by deploying a mobile forecast coastal Forecast upslope wind from prior model

D di d i 1962 h H d A H D (HHD)y p y g

atmospheric river observatory (ARO) at Westport WA and mountain p p p

runs for a constant verification time• Dedicated in 1962 the Howard A Hanson Dam (HHD) atmospheric river observatory (ARO) at Westport, WA. and mountain rainfall

runs for a constant verification timeDedicated in 1962, the Howard A. Hanson Dam (HHD) p y ( ) p ,PSD l d d t th HHD i i b d l i ARO

rainfallObserved hourly coastal and mountain rainfallbrought necessary flood relief to the Green River Valley and • PSD also responded to the HHD crisis by deploying an ARO Observed hourly coastal and mountain rainfallbrought necessary flood relief to the Green River Valley and PSD also responded to the HHD crisis by deploying an ARO

Water vapor flux AR threshold for Forecast integrated water vapor flux from prior Observed 24-hour g y yopened the a for increased alle de elopment closer to HHD in order to detect and monitor the atmospheric

Water vapor flux AR threshold for heavy orographic precipitation

Forecast integrated water vapor flux from prior Observed 24 hour rainfall totals and opened the way for increased valley development. closer to HHD in order to detect and monitor the atmospheric heavy orographic precipitation model runs for a constant verification timerainfall totals and opened the way for increased valley development.

F ll i d hi h l l f t b hi d HHD i J river conditions that potentially could lead to flooding alongode u s o a co s a e ca o e

forecast 12-hour rainfall • Following a record high level of water behind HHD in January river conditions that potentially could lead to flooding along Upslope-component wind direction Observed water vapor flux from GPS and wind profiler totalsFollowing a record high level of water behind HHD in January p y g g

th G RiUpslope component wind direction Observed water vapor flux from GPS and wind profiler totals

2009 the U S Army Corps of Engineers became concerned the Green River Forecast-verification time for model data in the Forecast hourly rainfall from prior model runs for a 2009, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers became concerned the Green River. Forecast verification time for model data in the ‘Ob ti d P i F t’ hi l

Forecast hourly rainfall from prior model runs for a t t ifi ti ti

y p gabout the Dam’s safety

‘Observations and Prior Forecast’ graphics panel constant verification timeabout the Dam’s safety.yFl d d t d b HHD f th J 2009• Flood damage prevented by HHD from the January 2009Flood damage prevented by HHD from the January 2009event is estimated at about $4 billionevent is estimated at about $4 billion. Sample ARO data:Prime range of

• Despite short term measures to improve HHD the chance for Sample ARO data:Seattle CSMAPrime range of wind directions in• Despite short-term measures to improve HHD, the chance for p

M i t fl t lSeattle CSMAwind directions in

ARs for Green River Green 6.9 p p ,i ifi t fl di i ti t d t b 1/25 Moisture flux toolARs for Green River

flooding?GreenRiver kmsignificant flooding is estimated to be 1/25 Moisture flux tool flooding? River

Gaugekm significant flooding is estimated to be 1/25. (above)Olympic Mts Gauge

at Auburn (above),Howardat Auburn 4.4

S PROF radarHansonWestport

4.4 km S-PROF radar DamWestport

bilkm

B i htVirga

Fl d Ph I f ti (Al ti I f ti f th fl ti it (l ft)mobile Bright

Flood Phase Information (Alerting Information from the reflectivity (left)ARO bandFlood Phase Information (Alerting Information from the reflectivity (left)GreenMt R i iNational Weather Service)GreenRiver

Mt. RainierNational Weather Service) RiverBasinSpanaway and Ravensdale

G RiBasinp y

ARO coupletGreen River ARO coupletGreen River gage at AuburnPhase gage at Auburn Description ConditionPhase (measured or Description Condition

S O(measured or Sample ARO data:(t d fl ) *

Sample ARO data:Portland CSMAexpected flow) * S PROF DopplerPortland CSMAexpected flow) S-PROF Doppler pp

l it d1 5 000 c f s Internal Alert velocity and Bright band Snow1 5,000 c.f.s. Internal Alert velocity and l l ( i ht)

gsnow level Snow

snow level (right)snow level

L l d fl di isnow level (right),

NOAA’ N M bil A h i9 000 f Mi Lowland flooding in SurfaceNOAA’s New Mobile Atmospheric9 000 c f s Minor Lowland flooding in Surface NOAA s New Mobile Atmospheric 2 9,000 c.f.s. Minor valley upstream of meteorologyRiver Observatory10-m met. Rain2 (61 7 ft ) Flooding valley upstream of meteorology River Observatory10 m met.

tower (folds(61.7 ft.) Flooding Auburngy

(b l )y

tower (folds Auburn. (below)down for Fi t ti d l t t W t t WA O t b 2009 (below)down for t ) First-time deployment at Westport, WA – October 2009

Flooding of varied storage) p y p ,Flooding of varied g )

depths occurs in valley GPS receiverSatellitedepths occurs in valley Forecast ImpactsGPS receiver

tSatellite p y

t f A b Forecast Impactsantennacommunications12 000 f M d t upstream of Auburn p

for IWVcommunications

3 12 000 c f s Moderate upstream of Auburn d l Mill C k # of product # of times obs from

for IWV3 12,000 c.f.s. Moderate and lower Mill Creek # of product # of times obs. from

Office and3 (63 5 ft ) Flooding and lower Mill Creek displays viewed an ARO site wereOffice and (63.5 ft.) Flooding basin SE Green Valley displays viewed an ARO site werestorage facilitybasin. SE Green Valley by Seattle WFO1 quoted in an AFD

storage facilityyRd and West Valle Rd

by Seattle WFO1 quoted in an AFDRd and West Valley Rd 2 233 50Rd and West Valley Rd

t 2 233 50may overtop 2,233 50may overtop. Disdrometer 1During Nov. 24–Dec. 23, 2009 and Jan. 11–Feb. 9, 2010Le ees ma e hibit

Disdrometer During Nov. 24 Dec. 23, 2009 and Jan. 11 Feb. 9, 2010Levees may exhibit From U S ACE meteorologist Larry

14 000 f E tLevees may exhibit

d/From U.S. ACE meteorologist, LarryRain14 000 c f s Extreme seepage and/or

g ySchick regarding a mid January 2010 AR

Rain

4 14,000 c.f.s. Extreme seepage and/or Schick, regarding a mid-January 2010 ARgauge4 (64 6 ft ) Flooding weaken from event: “We were right on the thresholdg g

(64.6 ft.) Flooding weaken from event: We were right on the threshold( ) gsaturation of taking over Wynoochee Dam todaysaturation. of taking over Wynoochee Dam today

for flood control but we had high* Phase is determined by current Auburn gage reading or the for flood control, but we had highS b d Phase is determined by current Auburn gage reading or the confidence we didn't need to with theS-band y g g g

expected flow based on Howard Hanson dam operationsconfidence we didn t need to with the

915-MHz wind profiler on swivel to aidprecipitation Backupexpected flow based on Howard Hanson dam operations ARO info that the rain would taper off915-MHz wind profiler on swivel to aid d l t d i i d t ith

precipitation fili d

Backup te pec ed o based o o a d a so da ope a o s

i f ti f th U S A C f E iARO info that the rain would taper offdeployment and maximize data recovery with profiling radar generator

information from the U S Army Corps of Engineers quickly -- and it did.”p y y

respect to beam directions and ground clutterp g

(S-PROF)g

and fuel tankinformation from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. quickly and it did.respect to beam directions and ground clutter(S-PROF) and fuel tank