hazard consequence threshold models for emergency
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Hazard Consequence Threshold Models for Emergency Management and Response Decision Making
Lead-PI: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island (URI) Graduate School of OceanographyCo-PI: Austin Becker, URI Marine Affairs; Pam Rubinoff, URI Coastal Resources CenterPartners: Chris Damon (URI Environmental Data Center), Peter Stempel (RI School of Design), Sam Adams (URI Public Safety and President of RI Association of Emergency Managers )
Student researchers supported through CRC: Ellis Kalaidjian, Noah Hallisey, Samantha Radov, Bobby Witkop, Vanessa Garcia, Peter Stempel
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
High-resolution ADCIRC modeling (~20m - 40m unstructured grid) +Ground-truthed, locally derived vulnerability data
= POWERFUL IMPACT PREDICTION OPPORTUNITY
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
Providence, RIWastewater clarifie
r
Elevation: 3m
Transformer
Elevation: 2m
Year 1-5 Goals (under Isaac Ginis project)
1. Develop method to integrate qualitative data into real-time hazard & impact prediction system for hurricanes & nor'easters in New England (Y1-3)
2. Develop and refine methodology to collect qualitative concerns for critical infrastructure facilities (Y3-5)
3. Prototype system for real-time storm modeling and planning: ADCIRC-Surge Guidance System (ASGS) (Y5)
Leverage high-resolution storm modeling capabilities to create model outputs that incorporate enduser concerns into real-time tools for Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs).
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
Engaged key end-users in the development to ensure relevance for planning and response
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
[Through this project] RIDOH and … the Healthcare Coalition of Rhode Island have deepened their understanding of the hazards and consequences that face this infrastructure. RIDOH and its partners are eager to continue participation in this project and to explore ways to leverage the data collected in support of Rhode Island's healthcare system.
Nicholas LarmoreCenter for Emergency Preparedness and Response, Rhode Island Dept. of Health
Key partners
Storm models rarely account for stakeholder’s local concerns and lack relevant informationneeded for local-level storm preparations.
Facility managers understand their own vulnerabilities & locations.
Facility managers need to understand model outputs on their own terms.
Enduser participation increases the credibility and value of the storm models outputs.
Flooded server room results in lost communication for RI’s Health network
Consequence Thresholds (CTs) complement other quantitative
assessment tools
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
Specific, local, flexible
Triggered consequence &
time of occurrence
ADCIRC Nodes- Sea surface height - Significant wave height- Velocity
NetCDF file(s)
Consequences
Database Entry- LiDAR elevation CT point- Threshold for impact triggered- Indexed to relevant nodes
Consequence Threshold (CT) Database & ‘R’ analysis script
Dashboard
Year 1 – 3 Goal: Integrate CT Database with Real-Time Models
MANUSCRIPT PUBLISHED: Stempel, P., Ginis, I., Ullman, D., Becker, A., & Witkop, R. (2018). Real-Time Chronological Hazard Impact Modeling. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 6(4), 134.
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
Westerly, RI, Pilot Study Results
192 Hazard Consequences Identified:(50) Mobility (roads/vehicles)(41) Power (power lines/electrical panels/generators)
(40) Communications (telephone lines/antennas)
(34) Facility specific equipment (pump stations/wells)
(24) Structural (windows/roofs)(5) Personnel
MANUSCRIPT PUBLISHED -- Witkop, R., Becker, A., Stempel, P., Ginis, I. (2019). Incorporating critical facility managers’ knowledge into hazard impact models: A case study of Westerly, Rhode Island. Frontiers in Earth Science: Geohazards and Georisks.
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
11 critical facility site visits(13 interviews)
30 min into storm
Year 1 – 3: Results Method for Integrating CT Database into Real-
Time Models
Wind>70 mph: “Our fire department loses our voice radio antenna & we cannot dispatch.” --Fire chief
Westerly (RI) pilot (2016-2018)
Inundation>1 foot:“Any surge & we can’t reach homes around the lighthouse.” --Fire chief
ADCIRC simulated storm surge and coastal flooding
60 min into storm
ADCIRC simulated storm surge and coastal flooding
Inundation>2 feet: “The water distribution pipes could be broken, which might contaminate the town’s water supply.”
--Water department manager
Year 1 – 3: Results Method for Integrating CT Database into Real-
Time ModelsWesterly (RI) pilot (2016-
2018)
120 min into storm
ADCIRC simulated storm surge and coastal flooding
Inundation>2 feet:“When water reached two feet here, we would bring in a mobile substation.”
--Power plant manager
Inundation>3 feet: “The plant’s motors would need replacing. We could be down for months.”
--WWTP manager
Year 1 – 3: Results Method for Integrating CT Database into Real-
Time ModelsWesterly (RI) pilot (2016-
2018)
Hurricane Rhody scenario used to train emergency managers and first responders in collaboration with FEMA, NOAA, DHS Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis.
Major Milestone: FEMA Emergency Management Course Cranston, RI June 19 – 22, 2017
11>160 participants from federal, state and local agencies, non-profit organizations
Years 3-5: Providence Study
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
GOAL: Expand & refine approach for RIEMA’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC)
Port of Providence Project steering committee meeting Providence Hurricane Barrier
• 12 steering committee members• 31 facility managers interviewed• 11 site visits• 5 focus groups held• 45 critical infrastructure facilities
surveyed• 306 CTs (for wind, surge, flooding)
Sectors
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
The predictive models of impacts on critical infrastructure are particularly essential to evaluating and prioritizing infrastructure investments with the goal of preserving and protecting vital lifelines.
Kevin Kugel, Director, Providence Emergency Management Agency
Summary of Consequence
Thresholds Data (Providence)
17
229
60
PCII Sensitivity*
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Level 1 - Available only to reporting facility (e.g., RIDOH)Level 2 - Available to pertinent municipal and state emergency community sector leadLevel 3 - Available to the public
271
629
Hazard Type
Flooding Surge Wind
1
126
155
24
Recovery Period
No Data Short TermMedium Term Long Term
Short Term – Up to one week
Medium Term – week to months
Long Term – Months to years
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
*Protected Critical Infrastructure Information
Asset Security level
Hazard type
Hazard threshold
Consequences noted by facility manager
RecoveryPeriod
Generator 2 Flood 48”
Loss of refrigeration; blood products at higher risk of
bacterial contamination; no testing for New England region
Medium
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
Example:
Rhode Island Blood Center
[protected]
[protected]
Asset Security level
Hazard type
Hazard threshold
Consequences noted by facility manager
RecoveryPeriod
Electrical substation
2 Flood 24”
Flooding damages the substation and power is lost;
unable to treat wastewater; raw sewage discharge to Bay
Long
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
[protected]
[protected][protected]
Example:
Narragansett Bay Commission Wastewater Treatment Facility
1. Interactive map displays inundation and facilities
2. Date/Time advance as scenario progresses or in real time with ADCIRC outputs
3. Filter data by attributes in the database
4. Running tally of all facility impacts and separated by sector
5. Consequences triggered
EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype[protected]
Prov. Port: Impacts at T1
EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype
[protected]
User “clicks” on a point to see both facility info and projected water depth at that time step.
Prov. Port: Impacts at T2
[protected]
EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype
[protected]
Prov. Port: Impacts at T3
EOC Forecast Viewer Prototype[protected]
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CRC 5th Annual Meeting March 11-13, 2020
This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2015-ST-061-ND0001-01. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S Department of Homeland Security.
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