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The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
What should agencies do about TV?
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
Contents
1.
2.
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Listen to the facts about TV, not the rhetoricKnow the case law on TV’s effectivenessAdopt ‘both and’ mindset to benefit clients
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
1. Listen to the facts about TV, not the rhetoric
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
— In early ‘noughties’ the pundits were predicting the death of TV and the 30 second spot
—We believed they were wrong…
—…so we looked at under-lying trends to provide a fact-based forecast
IPA commissioned The Future Foundation to forecast the media landscape
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
10 year forecast for the future
• Three future scenarios (of many)
• New segmentation of media
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
Three future scenarios
Media dominates(legislative creep)
Media led
Consumerled
Consumers in charge(permission)
Central
Current directionof travel
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
— ‘Display’ versus ‘Classified’— ‘One way’ versus ‘Two way’— ‘Not named’ versus ‘Named’— ‘Non screen’ versus ‘Screen’
A new segmentation of the media market
Different market shares, depending on scenario
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
‘Display’ v ‘Classified’ (inc. ‘Search’)
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
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16
Central
Consumer
Media
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
‘Two way’ v ‘One way’
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
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Central
Consumer
Media
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
10
‘Named’ v ‘Not named’
6%
11%
16%
21%
26%
31%
36%
41%
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Central
Consumer
Media
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
‘Screen’ v ‘Non screen’
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
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20
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20
16
Central
Consumer
Media
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
— Increased share for ‘Classified’
— Increased share for ‘Two way’
— Increased share for ‘Named’— Increased share for ‘Screen’
Forecast to 2016
We forecasted screen-based communications, aka ‘TV’, were set for considerable growth
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
We were right…
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
Commercial TV impacts up over 44% since 2000
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003* 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Individuals
30
” e
qu
iva
len
t im
pa
cts
(m
)
Source: BARB/Infosys/TechEdge Jan-Dec 2000-2010. *BARB panel changed
Source: BARB/Infosys/TechEdge Jan-Dec 2000-2010. *BARB panel changed
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Indivs ABC1 Ads Men 16-34s HW CH
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
+22.4%
+22.1% +23.6%
+10.8%+7.8%
Bil
lio
ns
Audiences
Source: BARB
…and for all demographics
Source: BARB
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
TV still takes the lions’ share of media use
26%
19%
4% 1%
50%
TV
Radio
Internet
Newspapers
Magazines
Source: Touchpoints 3 – Adults
Base: All Media use per day
Source: Ofcom Digital TV Update Q4 2010 (Published Apr 2011)
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
86% of TV viewed live even in DTR homes who view more, so impacts increased (contrary to ‘ad-skipper’ pundits…)
8692.4
147.6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Individuals with DTRs All UK Individuals
All
Vie
win
g %
% live viewing % time-shifted viewing
Source: BARB 2010 – All digital homes
Source: BARB 2010 – All digital homes
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
2. Know the case law on TV’s effectiveness
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
30 years of cases to analyse and learn from
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
The number of potential media options and media used has increased dramatically
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
TV used in 92% of winning cases, and with fewest other media
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
Three key reports setting out the ‘case law’
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
• Emotional is better than rational in commercial communication
• ‘Fame’ is the most powerful driver of effectiveness
• TV most effective medium, leverages others
• Multi-media (3 or 4) are more effective than 1
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
• 0.5% £ market share increase achieved by 10% extra SOV for Nielsen fmcg on av.
• +0.8% £ share increase achieved by 10% extra SOV by IPA Effectiveness Awards fmcg on av.
• So +60% effectiveness via excellent strategy, channel planning and creative
• First time we’ve been able to put a value on quality…
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
• Cross-analysis of the Gunn Report and IPA Effectiveness Awards
• Factor of 11 increase in effectiveness by award-winning creativity
• The more awards won, the greater the effectiveness: creativity sells
• (Maybe juries know something about ‘fame’?)
• Too many creatively awarded campaigns are starved of SOV
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
The state of the art
Emotion, ‘fame’, TV+multi-media, extra SOV, award-winning effectiveness and creativity = increased £ SOM
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
3. Adopt ‘both and’ mindset to benefit clients
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
—Each new media sector is championed by people (and their trade bodies) who believe ‘old media’ are superceded by their exciting new one
— Journalists love this ‘either or’ story and regurgitate it, pretty much uncritically
— This has affected, often adversely, the advice agencies give to their clients
Beware self-interested cheer-leading
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
—Media are often additive, not substitutional – hence importance of IPA TouchPoints
— The audio-visual medium, aka ‘TV’ continues to be the most powerful
—Has a great effect when leveraging a well-judged media mix
— ‘TV’ / video in ‘bought’, ‘owned’ and ‘earned’ media is a great driver of the brand story
— It’s the ‘water’ in the water cooler, both offline and online
Embrace the ‘both and’ mindset
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
— TV best at creating ‘fame’ and delivering emotional communication
— TV +3 or 4 bought media (but no limit to ‘owned’ and earned’) proven most effective
— Increased number of screen-based media platforms and bandwidth means more ‘TV’
— SOV v SOM and creativity are crucial
Summary
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
— Listen to the facts about TV, not the rhetoric
—Know the case law on TV’s effectiveness
—Adopt ‘both and’ mindset to benefit clients
What should agencies do about TV?
The Future of TV Conference, Edinburgh 11th May 2011
Q&Awww.ipa.co.uk
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