growth predicted for us healthcare spend over next decade

PharmacoEconomics & Outcomes News 634 - 6 Aug 2011

Growth predicted for US healthcarespend over next decade

US healthcare spending is expected to grow at anaverage annual rate of 5.8% over the next decade, andwill reach almost $US4.6 trillion by 2020, one-half ofwhich will come from government sources, according toan article in Health Affairs.

The article’s authors say that health spending in theUS is estimated to have grown at a "historic low" of 3.9%in 2010, partly due to he effects of the recently endedrecession. However, by 2014, national health spendinggrowth is projected to reach 8.3%, as major coverageexpansions enabled by the Affordable Care Act of 2010kick in.

Over the period 2011–2013, the authors say healthspending is projected to rise more rapidly than in theprevious 2 years, averaging 4.9%. This growth will bedriven by faster growth in private health insurancespending, associated with anticipated gains inemployer-sponsored health insurance enrolment.Through 2013, out-of-pocket spending is also expectedto grow faster, propelled by increases in disposablepersonal incomes during a period of expansion andrecovery, contend the authors.

For the period 2015–2020, national health spendinggrowth is estimated to average 6.2% annually. Duringthis period, the authors say that some large employersare expected to stop offering their workers healthinsurance, and pay the penalty mandated in theAffordable Care Act instead. Despite this, by 2020, it isestimated that 30 million US citizens will gain healthinsurance coverage under the act, the authors note.

While households and private businesses areexpected to pay for a smaller portion of the nation’shealth bill than they would have without the AffordableCare Act, they will still face a "growing burden on theirrespective limited resources", assert the authors.Keehan SP, et al. National Health Spending Projections Through 2020: EconomicRecovery And Reform Drive Faster Spending Growth. Health Affairs : 27 Jul2011. Available from: URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0662 803058373

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PharmacoEconomics & Outcomes News 6 Aug 2011 No. 6341173-5503/10/0634-0001/$14.95 © 2010 Adis Data Information BV. All rights reserved