growth accounting in the new industry classification standard; sni 2007 ─ a work in progress

Growth accounting in the new industry classification standard; SNI 2007 ─ a work in progress

Saltsjöbaden 06-10-2011

What I am going to talk about

• What we have done and what we plan to do

• Some preliminary results• Labour composition• Industry differences for the whole period• The average for all industries and goods and

service industries

What is growth accounting?

• Growth in gross production

• -The weighted input of production factors• Energy• Material• Services• Labour service including quality• Capital service

• =Multifactor productivity

That we have done so far

•The data we have in the new industry classification;

• Gross production • Value added• Worked hour• Labour quality

•Constructed data• Capital• Preliminary years

That we plan to do

•Capital

•ICT-capital

•More developed use of the preliminary years

•Labour quality for preliminary years based on the Labour force survey

Some preliminary results

•Labour composition

•Industry difference for the whole period 1993-2010

•Development for the average industry

Labour composition

• How the market value those who work in the private sector• Age • Ethnicity• Educational level• Educational orientation

• However not two sexes

Labour input 1993-2008: Age distribution

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

61-70 Year46-60 Year31-45 Year21-30 Year16-20 year

Labour input 1993-2008: Ethnicity distribution

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rest of the World

EU15, North Ame and Ocean

Swedish

Labour input 1993-2008 Education distribution

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Research

Graduate

Undergraduate

Upper secondary 3 year

Upper secondary 2 year

9 Year

Less than 9 Year

Labour quality1993-2008 : Age groups

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

16-20 years21-30 years31-45 years46-60 years61-70 years

Labour quality1993-2008 Education groups

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2 Less than 9 Year9 YearUpper secondary 2 yearUpper secondary 3 yearUndergraduateGraduateResearch

GP average yearly growth rate 1993-2010 Industry differences

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

GP

GP average yearly growth rate 1993-2010 Industry differences

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

GP C26 Electronics

J61 Telecom

Q87-88 Helth and Care

GP average yearly growth rate 1993-2010 Industry differences

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

GP C26 Electronics

J61 Telecom

Q87-88 Helth and Care

A03 Fishing

C13-15 Tex-tile

Labour contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Labour

Labour contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

LabourQ87-88 Health and Care

K66 Service to financial firmsP 85 Educa-tion

Labour contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

LabourQ87-88 Health and Care

K66 Service to financial firmsP 85 Educa-tion

A03 Fishing

C18 Publishing and printing

Capital contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Capital

Capital contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

CapitalN77 Leasing

P85 Educa-tion

P 86 Health and Care

Capital contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

CapitalN77 Leasing

P85 Educa-tion

P 86 Health and Care

E36-37 Sewage

A01 Farming

MFP contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

MFP

MFP contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

MFPC26 Electron-ics

J61 Telecom

G47 Retail

MFP contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

MFPC26 Electron-ics

J61 Telecom

G47 Retail

Q87-88 Health and CareC18 Publishing and printing

Growth pattern for 1993-2010

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Growth pattern for 1993-2010

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

It is necessary to aggregate

• We do not have weighted means yet

• We use unweighted means instead• For all industries• Goods industries• Service industries

• This means that the result are representative for the average industry but it is not the industry average

Decomposition of the GP growth 1993-2007

Goods Serv Tot

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05EMSLabCapMFP

Decomposition of the EMS growth 1993-2007

Goods Serv Tot0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Energy Materials Services

GP growth1993-2010

19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

GPMeanTot

GPMeanGoods

GPMeanService

Labour contribution to the GP-growth

19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

LabMeanTot

LabMeanGoods

LabMeanService

MFP contribution to the GP-growth

19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04MFPMeanTot

MFPMeanGoods

MFPMeanService

The relation between R&D 2007 and MFP-growth 1993-2010

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

MFP

R&D-intensity

The relation between R&D 2007 and MFP-growth 1993-2010

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

MFP

Linear (MFP)

R&D-intensity

That was all for now

Thanks for listening

So now we have to continue our work

EMS contribution to the GP-growth

19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

EMSMeanTot

EMSMeanGoods

EMSMeanService

Capital contribution to the GP-growth

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

-0.004

-0.002

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

CapMeanTot

CapMeanGoods

CapMeanService