gone up…now 77.6. the demography of aging lecture 3 – chapter 3

Gone up…now 77.6

The Demography of Aging

Lecture 3 – Chapter 3

Demographics?

Study of the size, distribution, and composition of

a population

284.5 million in US…

65 years & Older?

35 million…12.4%New England + Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont + Rhode Island + Connecticut

+ Montana + Idaho + Wyoming + Colorado + New Mexico + Arizona + Utah + Nevada

12.4% now2020 16.52040 20.52060 20.8

The Demographics of LifeThe Demographics of Life

USASource

www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts.PDF

World

300 million Population, Jan 2007 6.5 billion

77 Population per square mile 118

15 Births per 1,000 people 22

9 Deaths per 1,000 people 9

2.1 Total fertility rate 2.8

21 % of pop under age 15 30

13 % of pop over age 65 7

Us: 32nd: 12.4

Median Ageis also increasing

50%Above

50% Below

Demographic transitions

No surprise increase in older adults

Theory of Population Change: fertility & mortality will decline from high to lowlevels because economics & social development

Stage IHi BRHi DR

*Preindustrial

Stage IIHi BR

low DR

Stage IIIlow BRlow DR

Population Pyramid:• bar graph• age categories (5 yr)• male & female• length = percentages

3 types:

Expansive: “Broad Base”

More younger peeps

Constrictive: fewer in younger peeps

Stationary: = # peeps in all cats

Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 1950Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 1950

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Male Female

Millions

Male Female

8.1%

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2000Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2000

Millions

Male Female = Year 1950

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2050Age Distribution of the U.S. Population, by Sex: 2050

Male Female

Millions

= Year 2000

Baby

Boomers

What’s causing so many older people since 1900s?

CohortBaby Boomers

(fertility)Declining infant &

adult mortality

Increases in lifeexpectancy

Lowering of Fertility

“baby bust”(late 1960s-70s)

2045-2050Slower to marryFewer children

Mortality rates: tot # of deathsin a year per 1,000 individuals

Fertility rates: tot # of birthsin a year per 1,000 individuals

Age composition: proportion of young & old in a society

Fertility Rates USAFertility Rates USA

2.33

The human life cycle divisions are arbitrary differing from society to society and changing from one time in history to another

The five stages of adulthood

early adulthood (18-30),

middle adulthood (30-50)

Later adulthood (50-65)

young-old age (65-80)

old-old age (> 80)

Octogenarian: Someone in their eighties. Nonagenarian: Someone in their nineties.

Centenarian: Someone 100 or more. Supercentenarian: Someone 110 years old

or more (no upper limit)

Riley (1986) "young-old" (ages 65 to 74)"old-old" (ages 75 to 85)"oldest-old" (over age 85)

important

1. SEX COMPOSITION:

Sex Ratio: the # of males for every 100 females

1900: 102

1930: 100.4

1980: 94.5

1990: 95.1

2000:96.1

2025: 96.0

12.4% (2000)

59% female41% male

6 million more women!!!!

At birth 105 boys to 100 girls

35 years of ageFemale begin to surpass Males

Centenarians & super

1. SEX COMPOSITION

Where to go to get a date…

Race Ethnicity Composition of US

2003: Minorities represent about 18% of 65+ 2050: Projected 40% of 65+

2. ETHNICITY

Inequities among the racesBlacks have lower life expectancy

as compared to whites

Inequities among the races

- 5.4

- 6.3

Where do older adults live?

Where do older adults live?

Where do older adults not live?

CA 3.6 million (11%)

Florida 2.7 (18%)

New York 2.4 (13%)

Texas 2.0 (9%)

Alaska 5.5 %

1. LOCATION

Old-age dependency ratio:

65+ (too old to work)_____________

18-64 (working)

1930: 1:11

1980: 1:5.4

2000: 1:5

2030: 1:3

Familial old-age dependency ratio:

65 to 84 (elderly parents)___________________

45 to 54 (elderly children)

1980: 1.02:1

2000: .8:1

2030: 1.6:1