global warming and severe weather : hurricanes
Post on 25-Feb-2016
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Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes
Hurricanes and global warming
• More hurricanes– Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest
greater source of energy for hurricanes, hence they should be more frequent
N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance.
SST(1944-2005)
Hurricanes and global warming
• Fewer hurricanes– Increased wind shear – Increasing atmospheric stability
La Nina
Drawing
El Nino
Drawing/animation
Southern Oscillation and global warming
• ENSO not caused by global warming
• ENSO is natural cycle
• More El Nino conditions under global warming
Source of uncertainties
• Small sample size (only a few hurricanes each year)
Early view of hurricane structure, 1946
Radar-based hurricane tracking, 1960
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html
Source of uncertainties
• Difficult to separate natural and anthropogenic influences on the conditions leading to hurricane development
Source of uncertainties
• Different ways to quantify hurricane activity?– Strength?– Frequency?– Duration of season?– Tracks?
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