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1
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (August 4, 2020)
Shaun Osborne
Chief FX Strategist
461.945.4538
shaun.osborne@scotiabank.com
Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31)
Google Community Mobility
• Daily Google data tracking movement trends points to slowing gains in economic activity which in part reflects seasonal patterns (summer
holidays)—see declining workplace activity in Germany—but may also be due to the re-imposition of some lockdown measures in certain regions.
While the end of strict quarantine periods led to an initial, strong, rebound in activity the coming quarters will see growth returning to a smoother
trajectory, with economic output unlikely to reach its pre-coronavirus level before late-2021 given the economic impact and job losses resulting
from the shutdowns and their spillovers. Retail, transit, and workplaces mobility in the US has been flat since mid– to late-June.
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31)
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31)
Juan Manuel Herrera
FX Strategist
416.866.6781
juanmanuel.herrera@scotiabank.com
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Google Community Mobility: Workplaces
% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31) -100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Google Community Mobility: Retail
% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31) -80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.
% change from baseline, 7-dma
(Last: Jul 31)
2
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"
respective peak = 100(Last: Aug 1)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
Cda "CERB"
7-day ma
Cda"CESB"
7-day ma
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"
respective peak = 100(Last: Aug 1)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Search Term "Rent Relief"
respective peak = 100(Last: Aug 1)
Canada7-day ma US
7-day ma
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"
respective peak = 100(Last: Aug 1)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
Google Search Trends
• Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including searches for the federal
government’s other income support programmes, CERB and CESB. In the US, however, there’s been a recent, slight, uptick in searches—that
remain stubbornly high—which may reflect new rounds of layoffs as cases rebound and certain businesses close again or due to concerns over
the end-July lapse of the $600/wk emergency unemployment benefits top-up. Searches for “Covid test” have also surged in the US—and all the
other countries we track ex. Italy—amid a quick increase in contagions in parts of the country that may also be result in increased spending
caution by households reflected in flat to declining searches for “realtor”. As local eviction moratoriums expire in the US, “rent relief” searches
have surged.
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"
respective peak = 100(Last: Aug 1)
Canada7-day ma
US7-day ma
0
20
40
60
80
100
03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
UK FraIta MexUS Cda
Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Search Term "Covid Test"
respective peak = 100, 7-day ma (Last: Aug 1)
New York Fed Economic Index
• The NY Fed’s weekly economic index which
aggregates ten different daily and weekly
indices points to a year-on-year decline in
GDP of around –7.1% in early-August
equivalent to a 14.3% q/q increase for Q3
following a 32.9% q/q contraction in Q2.
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Aug 1)
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20Source: FRBSF, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
San Fran Fed US Daily News Sentiment Index
index(Last: Aug 2)
San Fran Fed News Index
• The FRB of San Francisco’s Daily News
Sentiment Index, which tracks the implied
tone of news articles in 16 major US
newspapers, points to an improvement in
sentiment since its trough in late-March,
which may marginally boost consumer
confidence.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
US (2019) US (2020)
Canada (2019) Canada (2020)
Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Indeed New Job Postings
Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Jul 24)
Indeed New Job Postings
• Online daily job postings on Indeed remain
depressed relative to 2019 as firms hold
back on hiring plans, with the trend in new
job postings in Canada down by around 15%
whereas in the US they are only down about
5%, compared to 22% and unchanged two
weeks prior, respectively.
3
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data
• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insights, and
Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories have rebounded
solidly in Canada from their April depths when compared to the same period last year. Total credit and
debit transactions now stand around 10% above their year-ago levels after falling by close to 30% y/y
in April; clothing, automotive, and health expenses are now rising year-on-year while restaurant
expenses have stopped declining. While the lockdown measures, travel bans, and fear of contagion
have sharply hit the travel industry—with transaction volumes down about 50% y/y as of a week ago—
other sectors have seen an increase in sales as people spend more time at home (e.g. computer
software sales). For more details see here. For questions contact Nikita Perevalov
(nikita.perevalov@scotiabank.com).
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Travel
Restaurants
Hardware stores
Automotive
Clothing
Entertainment
Health
14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jul 20)
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.
Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
Telecom servicesComputer networkComputer softwareGrocer iesDigital goods
14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jul 20)
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.
Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category
Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index
• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of
financial risk variables such as CDS spreads
and market volatility—is trading above its
200DMA after having declined from that
mark due to contagion concerns as solid
economic data and an agreement on an EU
relief package assuage concerns over rising
cases in the US, the stimulus impasse in
Congress, and building frictions between
China and some G7 members.
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
MfgFinanceProf/Biz svcsEduc/HealthLeisure/HospTotal
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,
Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Job Postings by Industry
% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 31)
Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data
• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain
around 6% off their baseline in early-2020 with grocery purchases remaining elevated as
individuals spend more time at home while spending on recreation and transportation remains
quite depressed at ~ 50% lower than baseline, while accommodation and food spending is about
35% lower. Spending on general merch. & apparel has rebounded to only 7% below baseline,
though worsening from nearly unchanged in late-June. The recent stalling in expenses is worrying,
however, and may reflect caution by households as supplementary unemployment benefits lapse
and amid depressed confidence from rising contagions in most US states.
Burning Glass US Jobs Postings
• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job
postings are down by around 15% y/y after
showing tentative signs of rebounding in the
final week of June albeit still remain above
their late-April/early-May depths, when
compared to their January baseline.
Openings in the leisure and hospitality sector
quickly gave back their gains as reopening
plans are scaled back.
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index
index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Aug 4)
100DMA
Risk appetite index
200DMA
40DMA
-50
-25
0
25
01/20 03/20 05/20
TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020),Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,
Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 19)
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
01/20 03/20 05/20
AllHealthAcc/FoodGroceriesTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGenMerch/Apparel
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,
Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector
% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 19)
4
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
30
40
50
60
70
80
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
France Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Aug 3)
latest: 97% of avg
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
Thousands
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Midwest Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Aug 3)
latest: 100% of avg
Energy Demand
• Hourly energy demand data shows the impact of the economic lockdown on industrial sector
activity as a large share of factories and offices remain idle—although in the case of the latter
some of this demand is substituted by residential demand which is less energy efficient.
• Energy demand in the countries/regions that we track has generally been around 10% lower
than the average of the previous two/three years over the past couple of months, thus
suggesting that the global economy still remains well below its pre-pandemic levels.
Abnormally high temperatures in Ontario have increased air-conditioning usage temporarily
and above seasonal norms; more closely mirroring energy demand in 2018. It is more likely
that the current slump in energy demand observed in France, Germany, Japan, and Mexico
reflects more accurately the magnitude of the economic depression.
22
27
32
37
42
47
52
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Japan Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Aug 3)
latest = 85% of avg
10
12
14
16
18
20
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Aug 3)
latest = 92% of avg.
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
20172018201920202017-19 avg
Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Ontario Energy Demand
000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Aug 3)
latest: 106% of avg
25
30
35
40
45
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
2018
2019
2020
2018-19 avg
Source: Cenace, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Mexico Energy Demand
000 mw h, daily max
(Last: Aug 3)
latest: 88% of avg
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20
2018
2019
2020
2018-19 avg
Source: ONS, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Brazil Energy Demand
000 mw h, daily max (Last: Aug 2)
latest: 100% of avg
0
20
40
60
80
100
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20
China GermanyUK JapanMexico New ZealandUS Canada
Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.
Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index
100 = strictest response Lockdown Stringency Index
• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful
guideline to track containment measures around the
globe—shows the progress that New Zealand has made on
bringing the coronavirus under control which has allowed
them to loosen restrictions that therefore leaves the country
better positioned for a prompt economic rebound. Similarly,
Germany’s restrictions remain relatively loose compared to
its peers which will likely result in an outperformance of the
country's economy within the euro-bloc. After a slow
response to the outbreak, the Oxford index suggests that
restrictions in Mexico are among the strictest across major
economies, behind China which recently re-imposed some
measures owing to an outbreak in Beijing.
5
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve
Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments
y/y % change in carloads(Last: Jul 24)
Rail Shipments
• Weekly rail shipments data shows that
demand for motor vehicles and equipment in
North America is again below year-ago levels
after a surge from a low base two weeks ago
while shipments of other goods remain
depressed and have stalled around 10-20%
below last year’s levels.
US Steel Production
• Weekly US steel production data suggests
that activity in the manufacturing and
construction sectors has not yet significantly
improved for steel mills to notably ramp up
production, which stands at about 70% of
year-ago output compared to 60% in early
May.
Shanghai Steel Inventories
• Chinese industrial output appears to have
recovered quickly, but then stalled, as steel
inventory levels in the country are depleted
from record-highs as reflected by weekly
Shanghai storage data for both traders and
steel mills. Steel mill inventories are nearly at
‘normal’ levels but show no signs of declining
of late.
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Shanghai Steel Inventories
mn tonnes(Last: Jul 31)
2020traders
(LHS)
2019traders
(LHS)
mn tonnes(Last: Jul 31)
2020steel mills
(RHS)
2019steel mills
(RHS)1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Steel Production
mn short tonnes(Last: Jul 31)
2020
2019
Germany Truck Mileage Index
• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a
close indicator of industrial production—
shows a sharp rebound in economic activity
in Europe’s largest economy. As of July 27,
miles traveled by trucks in Germany were
slightly above their year-ago level. This
series and other data again point to the
German economy recovering at a fast pace
as lockdown measures are lifted.
Retail Traffic
• ShopperTrak and Prodco retail foot traffic
data show that retail activity has picked up
quickly in France and Germany to leapfrog
the decline in Hong Kong—which reverted
shutdowns recently owing to rising
contagions. Retail sales in the UK remain
nevertheless depressed after a rebound in
the series with retailers in England allowed to
reopen on June 15th. Foot traffic in the US is
still about 50% below baseline for six straight
weeks as contagion concerns curb shopping
attitudes.
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
UK
France
Germany
Hong Kong
US
Source: Shopper Trak, Prodco Analytics,Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Retail Foot Traffic
y/y % change(Last: w eek of Jul 20)
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20
Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Truck Mileage Index
y/y % change(Last: Jul 27)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20
Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index
q/q % implied change in real GDP(Last: Aug 2)
Bundesbank Activity Index
• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic
activity index estimates that the German
economy had practically stopped contracting
on a 3m/3m basis, as of August 2nd, up from
–6.9% six weeks ago, reflecting the increase
in activity in the country’s industrial and
services sectors. Note that Germany’s
economy contracted by 10.1% in Q2,
compared to the Bundesbank WEI estimate
of 4.6% at end-June.
6
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally
000s per day(Last: Aug 3)
7DMA(Latest = 58% of Jan 31)
TSA Checkpoint Throughput
• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US
airports remains heavily subdued at close to
a quarter when compared to 2019. The
recent rise in cases in the country may
explain the plateauing of US travel since
early-June. As domestic and international
restrictions are lifted we should see a more
important pick-up in travel activity.
Flight Radar Commercial Flights
• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to
an unsurprising massive decline in air travel
(about 42% lower compared to early-2020)
owing to travel bans and other strict
restrictions on domestic and international
travel. As some countries eradicate (or
sharply limit the spread of the virus) some
travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’
nations.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
TSA Checkpoint Travelers
000s passengers(Last: Aug 3)
2020 7-dma(Latest = 27% of 2019)
2019 7-dma
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20
GermanyMexicoUKAustraliaCanadaUS
Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
OpenTable Restaurant Visits
y/y% change(Last: Aug 2)
OpenTable Restaurant Visits
• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data
points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits
in Germany and continued gains in Canada
and the UK. An increase in cases in Australia
has led to the re-imposition of lockdown
measures in Victoria and a temporary sharp
decline in restaurant visits, which have also
remained practically unchanged in the US as
quarantine measures are rolled back.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Driving
Walking
Transit
Baseline
Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Canada Apple Mobility Trends
routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Aug 2)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Driving
Walking
Transit
Baseline
Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
US Apple Mobility Trends
routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Aug 2)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20
Driving
Walking
Transit
Baseline
Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.
Germany Apple Mobility Trends
routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Aug 2)
Apple Mobility Trends
• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds
their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant increase in transit usage that points to a
faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency index that shows
Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers.
7
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
Dallas Fed State Mobility and Engagement Index, 7-day ma (Last: July 25)
Source: Dallas Fed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 9, Jan-Feb avg. = 0 (difference from baseline).
WA (-35)
OR (-32)
CA (-49)
ID (-25)
NV (-38)
UT (-30)
AZ (-45)
MT (-25)
WY (-19)
CO (-32)
NM (-35)
ND (-33)
SD (-28)
NE (-40)
KS (-40)
OK (-35)
TX (-58)
MN (-48)
IA (-39)
MO (-37)
AR (-39)
LA (-40)
WI (-41)
IL (-48)
KY (-36)
TN (-36)
MS (-40)
MI (-32)
IN (-33)
OH (-35)
WV (-24)
NC (-34)
AL (-40)
PA (-37)
VA (-44)
SC (-33)
GA (-39)
NY (-52)
NJ (-60)
MD (-53)
DC (-48)
FL (-47)
VT (-39)
MA (-52)
CT (-54)
DE (-44)
ME (-31)
NH (-45)
RI (-48)
HI (-48)
AK (-24)
ALL (-43)
8
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last: Aug 1)
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.
WA
OR
CA
HI
ID
NV
UT
AZ
MT
CO
NM
ND
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
MN
IA
MO
AR
LA
KY
TN
MS
OH PA
VA
SC
GA
MD
NJ
NY MA
VT
CT
DE
NH
ME
RIWY
WV
NC
AL
DC
MI
IN
IL
WI
FL
BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS
NLPE
AK
9
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
Opportunity Insights Affinity Solutions Card Spending, 7-day ma (Last: July 19)
Source: Opportunity Insights, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 24, Jan = 0 (% difference from baseline).
WA (-5.1)
OR (-6.7)
CA (-13.2)
ID (1.0)
NV (-8.4)
UT (-5.9)
AZ (-8.4)
MT (-7.1)
WY (-4.4)
CO (-8.0)
NM (-9.2)
ND (-3.4)
SD (-13.7)
NE (-5.8)
KS (-6.9)
OK (-5.1)
TX (-7.0)
MN (-5.8)
IA (-13.8)
MO (-3.3)
AR (3.5)
LA (-0.6)
WI (-6.1)
IL (-7.1)
KY (0.4)
TN (-0.9)
MS (-4.3)
MI (2.6)
IN (-3.5)
OH (-2.7)
WV (0.5)
NC (-7.4)
AL (0.0)
PA (-3.7)
VA (-5.8)
SC (-2.2)
GA (-4.3)
NY (-5.8)
NJ (-4.5)
MD (-8.1)
DC (-19.0)
FL (-5.2)
VT (-7.1)
MA (-2.0)
CT (-5.8)
DE (-8.7)
ME (0.2)
NH (-1.3)
RI (-10.2)
HI (5.0)
AK (-7.6)
ALL (-6.3)
10
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday August 4, 2020
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