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Future Emissions and Future Emissions and Mitigation ModelingMitigation Modeling
National Institute for Environmental StudiesNational Institute for Environmental Studies
Mikiko KainumaMikiko Kainuma
Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy, October 25, 2002
Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
CO2 emissionCO2 emission intensity intensity
1995
2032
2032
Market
Policy
0 5 10 100 1000
gC/m2/year
Population projection in Market First Scenario
JapanOceania
South East Asia
East Asia
South Asia
20002015
2030
Asia-Pacific
Western, Eastern, South Africa
America
Europe + CIS
Middle East + Northern Africa
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
million
Population projection in Security First Scenario
20002015
2030
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
JapanOceania
South East Asia
East Asia
South Asia
million
Asia-Pacific
Western, Eastern, South Africa
America
Europe + CIS
Middle East + Northern Africa
World GDP in Market First Scenario
20002015
2030
Middle East +Northern Africa
Europe + CIS
America
Western, Eastern, South Africa
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Billion US$ 1995 Japan Oceania
South East Asia
East Asia
South AsiaAsia-Pacific
20002015
2030
Middle East +Northan Africa
Europe+CIS
America
W,E,S Africa
Asia-Pacific
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Billion US$ 1995
JapanOceania
South East Asia
East Asia
South Asia
World GDP in Security First Scenario
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(Mt-
C)
Historical data
Market First
Policy First
Security First
Sustainability First
Energy related CO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central Asia
Cha
nge
in e
nerg
y-re
late
d C
O2
emis
sion
sby
203
2 re
lati
ve to
200
2 (%
)
Afghanistan Bangladesh
Iran Maldives
Nepal Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Brunei Cambodia
Indonesia Lao
Malaysia Myanmar
Philippines Singapore
Thailand Vietnam
China Korea, Dem
Korea, RepJapan
Mongolia Taiwan, China
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic
TurkmenistanTajikistan
Uzbekistan
Australia New Zealand
Fiji Kiribati
Nauru Palau
Papua New Guinea French Polynesia
Tonga Vanuatu
Samoa Solomon Islands
IndiaBhutan
South Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central Asia
ANZ and South Pacific
MK
PO SC
SU
MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First
SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC SU
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC
SU
ANZ andSouth Pacific
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
South East AsiaSouth Asia East Asia Central Asia
Cha
nge
in e
nerg
y-re
late
d C
O2
emis
sion
sby
203
2 re
lati
ve to
200
2 (%
)
Afghanistan Bangladesh
Iran Maldives
Nepal Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Brunei Cambodia
Indonesia Lao
Malaysia Myanmar
Philippines Singapore
Thailand Vietnam
China Korea, Dem
Korea, RepJapan
Mongolia Taiwan, China
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic
TurkmenistanTajikistan
Uzbekistan
Australia New Zealand
Fiji Kiribati
Nauru Palau
Papua New Guinea French Polynesia
Tonga Vanuatu
Samoa Solomon Islands
IndiaBhutan
South Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central Asia
ANZ and South Pacific
Afghanistan Bangladesh
Iran Maldives
Nepal Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Brunei Cambodia
Indonesia Lao
Malaysia MyanmarMalaysia Myanmar
Philippines Singapore
Thailand Vietnam
China Korea, Dem
Korea, RepJapan
Mongolia Taiwan, China
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic
TurkmenistanTajikistan
Uzbekistan
Australia New Zealand
Fiji Kiribati
Nauru Palau
Papua New Guinea French Polynesia
Tonga Vanuatu
Samoa Solomon Islands
IndiaBhutan
South Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central Asia
ANZ and South Pacific
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC
SU
MK: Market FirstPO: Policy First
SC: Security FirstSU: Sustainability First
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC SU
MK
PO SC SU
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC
SU
MK
PO SC
SU
ANZ andSouth Pacific
Change in energy related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 in sub-regions of the Asia-Pacific region
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0
GD
P c
han
ge
(com
par
ison
wit
h b
asel
ine,
tri
llio
n y
en)
GDP loss caused byKyoto targetRecovery by increasedproduction of environmental industry
2005 2010
Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto(without international emission trade)
Recovery by investmentin advanced technologydevelopment
2005 2010
Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto(without international emission trade)
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0
GD
P c
han
ge
(com
par
ison
wit
h b
asel
ine,
tri
llio
n y
en)
GDP loss caused byKyoto targetRecovery by increasedproduction of environmental industry
Recovery by increasingenvironmental premiumof consumption
2005 2010
Japanese reduction and recovery of GDP caused by Kyoto(without international emission trade)
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0
GD
P c
han
ge
(com
par
ison
wit
h b
asel
ine,
tri
llio
n y
en)
Recovery by investmentin advanced technologydevelopment
GDP loss caused byKyoto targetRecovery by increasedproduction of environmental industry
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n (
MtC
O2)
A1
A2B1B2
102969896
A1A2B1B2
105888783
< Countermeasure case >
A1
A2
B1
B2
A1
A2
B1
B2
(1990=100)
Estimates of CO2 Emission in Japan with AIM end-use model
450 450 ppmvppmv550 550 ppmvppmv650650 ppmvppmv
Business as Usual
2000 2050 2100
10
20
30
40
0
CO
2 em
issi
on
s
(G
tC)
Necessary reductions for stabilization assuming Business as Usual development path
GD
P lo
ss (%
)
750ppm
650ppm
550ppm
450ppm
Busin
ess
as U
sual
4.1
2.9
2.3
1.2
Econo
mic
gro
wth
con
trol
3.6
3.3
2.3
1.2
Eco-
mar
ket e
stab
lishm
ent
Eco-
mar
ket e
stab
lishm
ent
1.9
0.9
0.4
0.0Li
fest
yle
chan
ge
Life
styl
e ch
ange
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
Adv
ance
d
Adv
ance
d
Tech
nolo
gy
Tech
nolo
gy
intr
oduc
tion
intr
oduc
tion
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.01.02.03.0
4.0
5.0
Environmental Environmental InnovationsInnovationsfor Cost for Cost ReductionReduction
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