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Freshwater Ecosystems and Climate Change: Impacts on

Lake Ice, Fishes, and Hydrology

John J. MagnusonCenter for Limnology

UW-Madison

Main Points of Confronting Climate Change in the

Great Lakes Region 1. Climate is changing globally and in our region.

2. Impacts have already occurred and will get worse.

3. Emissions of greenhouse gases especially CO2 contribute to these changes.

4. Actions taken now can reduce the most severe future impacts.

UCS & ESA 2003.

Three Water Examples

Lake Ice CoverFish Habitat

Water Levels and Flows

The Invisible PresentThe Invisible Place

Magnuson 2006

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

142 Years (1856 - 1998)

Lake Mendota, WisconsinIc

e C

over

(Day

s)1

Year

Magnuson 2004

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

142 Years (1856 - 1998)

Interannual VariabilityIc

e C

over

(Day

s)10

Years

Magnuson 2004

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

142 Years (1856 - 1998)

Dynamics from the Central PacificIc

e C

over

(Day

s)50 Years

(1949 -1998)

El Niño Years

Magnuson 2004

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Dur

atio

n of

Ice

Cov

er (D

ays)

DurationLinear ModelBest ARMA Mo

Mon

ths

of I

ce C

over

1850 1900 1950 2000

5

4

3

2

1

0

Long-Term Changes in Ice Cover Duration

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Annual

Air T

emper

ature

(F)

increase = 0.7F/decadeincrease = 0.04F/decade

Wisconsin Air Temperatures 1895-2005

Data from State Climatology Office

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Dur

atio

n of

Ice

Cov

er (D

ays)

DurationLinear ModelBest ARMA Mo

Mon

ths

of I

ce C

over

1850 1900 1950 2000

5

4

3

2

1

0

Press & Pulse - Change in Extreme Events

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin

Winter is a part of our “Sense of Place.”

We are losing winter as we knew it!

Magnuson 2006

The Invisible PresentThe Invisible Place

1850 1900 1950 2000

Jan 1

Dec 1

Feb 1

Mar 1

Apr 1

May 1

Freeze

Breakup

Lake / BayChequamegon Bay

ShellMendotaMonona

RockGeneva

Magnuson 2004

Changes in Ice Dates Around Wisconsin

Changes around theNorthernHemisphere

(36-37 of the 39 time seriesare in the directionof warming)

Source: IPCC 3rd Assessment 2001 Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000

Nov 1

Dec 1

Jan 1

Feb 1

Mar 1

Apr 1

May 1

Ice

On

Ice

Off

MacKenzie River, NW Terr.

Kallavesi, Finland

Lake Mendota, WI

Lake Mendota, WI

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Baikal, Russia

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Kallavesi, Finland

Baikal, Russia

Changes around theNorthernHemisphere

(36-37 of the 39 time seriesare in the directionof warming)

Source: IPCC 3rd Assessment 2001 Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000

Nov 1

Dec 1

Jan 1

Feb 1

Mar 1

Apr 1

May 1

Ice

On

Ice

Off

MacKenzie River, NW Terr.

Kallavesi, Finland

Lake Mendota, WI

Lake Mendota, WI

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Baikal, Russia

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Kallavesi, Finland

Baikal, Russia

Toronto Harbor

Toronto Harbor, Ontario

Changes around theNorthernHemisphere

(36-37 of the 39 time seriesare in the directionof warming)

Source: IPCC 3rd Assessment 2001 Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000

Nov 1

Dec 1

Jan 1

Feb 1

Mar 1

Apr 1

May 1

Ice

On

Ice

Off

MacKenzie River, NW Terr.

Kallavesi, Finland

Lake Mendota, WI

Lake Mendota, WI

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Baikal, Russia

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Kallavesi, Finland

Baikal, Russia

Suwa Ko, Japan

Omiwatari on Suwa Ko on January 12, 2003

Takayuki Hanazato

y = 0.0115x - 40.579

R2 = 0.0086

y = 0.1921x - 365.31

R2 = 0.4728-60

-30

0

30

1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

regression 1443-1825

regression 1800-1993

Lake Suwa, Japan, Ice-on Time Series from 1443 - 1993(30 days subtracted from years before 1880)

Ice-

On

Dat

e (0

= D

ec. 3

1)

What is Happening?

IPCC 2001

Suwa KoLake Ice Science Paper

Lake Ice

since1975

Lake Ice Data Extent versus Thermometer Measurements

ThermometerReadings

IPCC 2007

Simulated Annual Mean Surface Air Temperatures

Observed

Natural ForcingAlone

Natural and Anthropogenic

Forcing

IPCC 2007

Temperature Change in IPCC Scenarios

7.2°F

3.2°F

Confronting Climate Change in the

Great Lakes Region

Past, Current, and Future Climate Change

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes

2003 updated 2005

PennsylvaniaEnd of this century scenarios

Temperatures Summer 7-9°F WarmerWinter 6-8°F Warmer

PrecipitationSummer Decrease 10-15%

Winter Increase 15-20%

Extreme heat more common.Frequency of extreme rain events more common

Pennsylvania Migrates Too!

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/

2030

2095

2003

20302095

Summer

Winter

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are needed to see this picture.

Migrating ClimatesChanging Summers in Great Lakes Region

Current By 2095

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/

Do Fishes Care about Climate Change?

Cool WaterFishes

Cold Water Fishes

Warm WaterFishes

Magnuson May 2003

Lake trout > Coho salmon >

Chinook salmon > rainbow trout >

Brown trout > Whitefish >

Lake herring >Burbot >

Rainbow smelt > Alewife >

Walleye >

Yellow perch > Northern pike >

Sauger > Gizzard shad >

Freshwater drum > Carp sucker >

Black crappie > White crappie >

Emerald shiner >

Rock bass > Brown bullhead > Channel catfish >

Goldfish >

White sucker > Golden shiner >

Carp > Smallmouth bass >

White bass > Whiteperch >

Yellow bullhead > Longnose gar >

Pumpkinseed >

Bluegill >

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Preferred Temperature ( oC)

cold cool warm

Corrected Figure 23: Temperature Groupings of Common Great Lakes FishThermal Guilds

of Freshwater FishesCold Cool Warm

UCS/ESA

White Sucker Coolwater Fish

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Other Coolwater Game Fishes

Where White Sucker Could Persist

DoubledGreenhouse GasesBase Climate

NO

YES

John Eaton and others

Minnesota Inland Lakes: Simulated Change in Thermal Habitat with CO2 Doubling

Warm Water Fishes

Cold Water Fishes

Cool Water Fishes

-100

+100

0

Stefanet al.

Clear LakesGreen Lakes

Cha

nge

in T

herm

al H

abita

t (%

)

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Northern Pike Smallmouth Bass

July/August Water Temperature (°C)

25 252323 21Rel

ativ

e Y

ear-

Cla

ss S

treng

th (%

)

21

Relation between Year-Class Strength and Summer Water Temperatures in the Bay of Quinte

Casselman 2002

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Shuter and Post 1990

SmallmouthBass

Smallmouth Bass dispersalMove north 120 km per 1°C warming Shuter et al. 2002

Extirpation of native species25,000 cyprinid populations extirpated to date from spread of smallmouth bass in Ontario Jackson & Mandrak 2002

Change inDistributionwith +4°CTemperature

What will Happen to the Fishes?

• Extinctions and extirpations at southern boundaries

• Northward movement of northern boundaries by 500km with CO2 doubling, again leading to extinctions and extirpations

• Greater losses of fishes in streams and shallow ponds than in deep lakes

• The Great Lakes refugia for cold water species• Invaders will cause extinction of some resident

species and changes in water quality.

Global Warming(temperature increase)

Speeds up GlobalWater Cycle

Effects of Global Warming on Water Cycle

More Extreme Weather Events• Droughts• Storms• Floods

Changes in the Hydrologic Cycle

Expectations

UCS/ESA 2003Magnuson April 2001

Winter

Summer

1900 2000 2100

+80

+40

0

-40

+80

+40

0

-40

Observed and projected change inaverage daily precipitation

(%)

Observed

Observed

High Emission

Low Emission

Low Emission

High Emission

Winter Summer Winter

Projected 2090-2099

Projected 2025-2034

Modeled 1961-1990

Wetter Dryer WetterUCS/ES

Seasonal Precipitation CycleD

aily

Ave

rage

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (m

m/d

ay)

5

4

3

2

A 2003

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24-Hour Events

7-Day Events

Increased Frequency of Heavy Rainfall

1900 2000 2100

x3

x2

1

x3

x2

1

0

Observed

Observed

Low Emission

Low Emission

High Emission

High EmissionR

elat

ive

to a

n A

vera

ge fr

om 1

961-

2000

UCS/ESA 2003

Water Levels and FlowsLast 50 Years

Magnuson 2003

Devils Lake

Anvil LakeShell Lake

Lake Stage Gages Shell Lake (WI) June 2002

Krohelski 2003

Shell Lake Annual Average Stage

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Shell Lake Annual Average Stage (feet)

25

20

15

10 1940 1970 2000Krohelski 2003

Fish Lake July 2000

Long-Term Water Level of Wisconsin Lakes and two Great Lakes

Magnuson et al. 2006

Great Lakes are BOLD.

Buffalo is in northern Wisconsin.

Mendota, Monona, and Fish are in southern Wisconsin.

Fish Lake isa seepage lake.

Stream Flows

Krohelski 2003

Grant River near Burton, Wisconsin (Baseflow)300

200

100

01930 1970 2000

Krohelski 2003USGS Station

!(

!(

!(

!(

!

!(

!(!(

!(

!( !(

!!(

!(

!(!(

!(

!

!( !(

Step Increase in Lake Stage, Stream Flow, and Groundwater Levels after 1970

Groundwater WellLake StageStream Flow

Gray = step increaseRed = no step increase

Magnuson et al. 2003

Shell Lake

Devils LakeUSGS Data

Baseflow

15

25

35

45

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual P

reci

pita

tion

(Inch

es)

mean = 30.8inmedian = 30.0in

mean = 32.6inmedian = 32.8in

What happened to precipitation in Wisconsin?

Fall 50%Summer 30%Winter 17%Spring 3%

Stream-flow Sites with Significant Increasesin Minimum Daily Flow

between Two Periods (1941-70 and 1971-99)

IncreasesDecreasesNo Change

McCabe and Wolock

Another Cause of Increasein Water Levels and Flows

The Water Cycle Freshens Up

“Rivers are delivering increasing amounts of fresh water to the oceans.

The cause seems to be that higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are having on water use by plants.water to the ocean.”

(Don Matthews Nature Feb 2006, see also Gedney et al.Nature Feb. 2006))

Water Levels and Flows Conclusions

• Lake stage (seepage lakes), baseflow in streams, and groundwater table have gone up in Wisconsin except for north central area.

• Reasons for the increases are varied and include change in precipitation, CO2 changes in plant physiology, land use, and perhaps the shorter winters.

• Scenarios for the future.

Overview of Main Points 1. Climate is changing globallyand in our region.

2. Impacts have already occurredand will get worse.

3. Emissions of greenhouse gasesespecially CO2 contribute to these changes.

4. Actions taken now can reduce the most severe future impacts

Ways to Think about UncertaintyUncertainties will continue to change.

Do and apply science.

Risk averse versus risk prone behavior.

Do right thing regardless.

Preserve future options.

All decisions are long term.

Reflect on other Issues for wisdom.

How Do Natural and Social Scientists Deal with Uncertainty

Kai Lee 1993. Compass and Gyroscope

Compass = Science and its Idealistic Application in Adaptive Management.

Gyroscope = Bounded Conflict as a Pragmatic Application of Politics Disciplines the Discord of Unavoidable Error.

Magnuson 2003

What to do?Relevant Time Scales

are Long Term.• Include Climate Change and Variability in planning and making decisions concerning natural resources, agriculture, energy production, cities, and other activities.

• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors.

Preferences about OutcomesAgree Disagree

Beliefsabout

Causation

Agree

Computationin

BureaucraticStructure

Bargainingin

RepresentativeStructure

Judgment in

CollegialStructure

Settling

Consensus Building

Disagree Conflict

Kai Lee (modified from Thompson and Tuden 1959)