food, fuel and famine · 2020. 3. 30. · gasoline additives ... exploit a sustainable replacement...

Food,FuelandFamine

MikeMalloy

Inmemoriam

ThisessayisdedicatedtothememoryofthelateProfessorJohnTong,clinicalpsychologist,universityteacherandinfantrymanintheBritishArmyduringWorldWarii,whorespectedandenjoyedtreesandwhobelievedthatqualitytreefarmingwaspossibleinNewZealand

Copyright

Contents

SectionPage

Introductory3

Problem6

Technical10

Political15

Americaninfluence22

Australianinfluence24

Globalisation26

Organisation32

Summation35

References38

Introductory

Alongsidealltheresearchandrhetoricabouttheincreasinglevelsofcarbonintheatmosphere,aquietrevolutionhasbeengoingonintheworldoftransport.Poweringcarsandtrucksuptothepresenthasbeentheexplosiveburningoffuelsdrawnfromcheappetroleum

oil.Comingintoviewisaquietnewformofpower–electricity.Notthekindweseeeverydayonpowerpoles.It’sanewkind,basedonwithin‐vehiclegenerationbyfuelcells.Anditspreferredfuelisaliquid,portableandsaferthangasoline:thehydrogen‐richmethanol.Itsmosteffectivevehicle

hostisthefuelcellvehicle(FCV).Ininternalcombustionvehicles(ICEs),theexhaustsystemsofexplosivepoweremitcarbonintheformofCO2andexpelitintotheatmosphere.That’showclimatewarmingdevelops.SimilarsystemswithinFCVsemithydrogenintheformofdribblesof

water–thestuffthatleaves,grassesandanimalsneedtosurvive–andnocarbon.There’sonlyonemajorsnag.Atpresent,FCVsrunonmethanol,andmethanolfromsustainablebiomassis,andislikelytoremain,moreexpensivethangasoline.(Incontrast,methanolfromnaturalgas,another

fossilfuel,iscomparablewithgasolineforcost.)ThereisonepossibleadvantageaccruingtoNewZealand.Ithasanopportunitytotakealeadingroleintherevolution.CurrentevidencesuggeststhatNZmayhaveaglobaladvantageintheconditionsattachingtoitsrurallandanditscapacityto

yieldtherawmaterialneededformethanolproduction.Twooftheseconditionsarehillslopeanderosion.AstudybyDeroseetal.found:

a) Annualherbageaccumulationdecreaseswithincreasingslopeanglefromthebottomtothetopofhillslopes.

b) Pasturerecoveryisslowonlandslidescars,taking40yearstoreachabout74%ofunerodedlevels.Herbageaccumulationispermanentlyreducedonsoilswithlowsoilwater‐holdingcapacity.

c) Declinesinmeanannualherbageaccumulationaregreatestonslopessteeperthan28degrees(28*).Thesedeclinesamounttobetween1and3%perdecadeforthefirst100yearsafterforestclearance,butareexpectedtodecreaseoverlongertimeperiods.

Theinferenceisclear:steeplandismorestableandproductiveinforestthanitisinpasture.Asanation,weignoredselectiveclearingtoourcost.Thescientificevidenceisindicative:whenfossilfuelsnolongersupplyareliableandcheapfuelfortransportpurposes,farmerscanstepintothebreachforrawmaterialbyconvertingtheirsteep,relativelyunproductivegrasslandinto

energytreeplantations,assuming,ofcourse,thatthemarketplaceprovidesanadequatereturnforwood.Theworldisrunningoutofcheapoil.NZisnot(yet)runningoutofcheapland.Peoplelike

livingonflats,justastheylikeworkinglandthatisflatorgentlysloping.Theymostlyby‐passsteepland:justthekindthatsuitstrees,theirleavesandrepetitiveharvesting.Thehumandislikeofsteepcountryhasbeenhighlightedbythewholesaledestructionofnativeforeststhathaveinthepast

protectedsoilsonsteepcountry.Theresult:thesteadyerosionofvaluabletopsoil,oftenrestingunsteadilyonrock.Byreversingforestremoval,wecanexploittheextraordinarycapacityofleavestoabsorbsolarenergyandconvertitintoportable,energy‐richhydrogenviamethanol.Ifneeded,

thecarboncontentofwoodandleavescanbehandledconvenientlyattheprocessingplantandthensequestered.Thesameprocessesenableustousetreerootsonsteeplandasstablestoresofcarbonoutsidetheatmosphere.

Cheapoilhasmadethemodernworld,anditspeople,whattheyare.Itsproblemisthat,likenaturalgas,itisawastingasset,usedbyaglobalpopulationthatisgrowingatageometricprogression.The

gravytrainmustrunoutofsteamsoon–certainlybeforethiscenturyreachesthe50yearmark.Wellbeforethathappens,weneedareplacementtotakeovertheroleofcheapoil.Wecandothereplacementactofoil,butwecan’treplicateitscheapaspect.Cheapoilisfreeoil.Itmerelyneeds

extractiontoenableittoberefinedintofuel.Boundoilisquitedifferent.Itisfoundinsandsandshale.Touseit,wemustextractitfromitsembeddingmaterial.Itismuchmoreexpensivetoconvertintoafuel,butfavouredbytheoilcompaniesasthereplacementforfreeoil.

Plantationforestsyieldingmethanolcanstabiliseourhillcountry,yieldwoodandleavesthatare

energy‐rich,andsupportrepetitivecroppingofsuccessivegenerationsoftreegrowththroughcoppicing.Theprocessingofwood,leaves,naturalmethanehydratesandwaterweedsintomethanolisanimmaturetechnology,ripeforextensivedevelopmentthroughresearch.Sois

plantationmanagementonsteepcountry.Suchresearchnormallyleadstodecreasingthepriceofthefinishedproduct.

Methanolisabasicproductoftreesornaturalgas.Treescanbecropped.Naturalgascan’t.

Methanolcanbeusedasalaboratorysolvent,asacomponentinaprocessyieldingbiodiesel,and,directlyandindirectly,intheproductionof:

A. Chemicals–Formaldehyde

Methyl‐tert‐butylether

Aceticacid

Chloromethanes

Methylamines

Methylmethacrylate

Dimethylterephthalate

Butanediol

Ethanol

Hydrogen

Carbonmonoxide

Biochemicals

B. Products‐Adhesivesforparticleboards,plywood&woodpanels

Paints

Resins

Silicones

Antifreeze

Plastics

Foamasinsulationinrefrigerators,doors,dashboards&fenders

Gasoline

Gasolineadditives

Explosives

Textiles

Windshieldwasherfluid

Aerosolspraypropellant

Polymers

Directmethanolfuelcells

Globally,methanolisproducedattheannualrateofabout40.6milliontonnes.Between

2008and2013,demandisexpectedtogrowattherateofsome7.8%perannum.MethanolcanbeblendedwithLPGforhomeheatingandcooking,andasadieselreplacement.ItcanbeuseddirectlyasafuelinICEsandinFCVs,thusdisplayingremarkableversatility.Itcan

alsobeusedasanICEfuelinblendswithgasoline.InICEs,ithasonlyhalftheenergycontentofgasoline.InFCVs,ithasaboutthesameenergypower.Whenproducedfromsustainablebiomass,itisthekeytoanevolvingeconomy.Therevolutionopensupavistaoffameand

fortunefortheentrepreneur,theinventor,theboldandtheingenious.ItalsogivesParliamenttheopportunitytolayclaimtoaleadershiproleineconomics–somethinginwhichitismarkedlydeficientatpresent.

Problem

Onanymapoftheworld,NewZealandsitsalone–remote,smallandsparselypeopled.Whenoilrunsdowntothepointofitsdisappearancebeingmeasurable,wherecanNewZealanderslookforareplacementfuel?Totheoilcompanies?Theirabilitytofindandexploitasustainablereplacementfeedstockishighlyunlikely.Comparedwiththewealth,population,landmassandpullingpowerofcountriesinthenorthernhemisphere,wewillnotrateaglanceasconsumersofadiminishingresourceoranyotherresourcethatcanbeexploitedaseasily.What,then,shouldwebedoingaboutit?Howlargegroupsofpeoplereacttostresssuggeststhatnationalismwillgetarebirth.Everystateislikelytoseekitsownfavouredsolutionbasedonresourceandpopulationstatistics.Longtermratherthanshorttermsolutionsarelikelytoacquirepopularity.“Sustainablefeedstock”islikelytobejudgedanimportantattributeofanyalternativefuel.NewZealand’snationalinterestpointstoasecure“doityourself”(DIY)solutionbasedonclosecooperationbetweenpeopleandgovernmentasthepreferredscenario,especiallyduringthetransitionperiod.

Petroleumoilisbothalubricantandasourceofenergy.Woodisalsoasourceofenergy,asithasbeensincemanabandonedforestlife.AnFAOpredictionoftotalworldwoodconsumptionfor2010forecast5069millionm3,ofwhichsome47%,or2395millionm3wouldcomprisefuelwood.Amongdevelopingcountries(wheremostpeoplelive)fuelwoodmakesup20‐40%oftotalenergyconsumptionandupto90%ofdomesticenergysupplies.Adifferentpictureemergesfordevelopedcountries.Fuelwoodsuppliessome1to15%oftotalenergyrequirementsandisfarmorelikelytoendupaswasteinrubbishdumps.Asacorollary,naturalforestshaveamuchbetterchanceofsurvivalindevelopedcountries(whereplantationwoodisvastlymoreproductivethannativeforestwoodcouldeverbe)thantheydoindevelopingcountries.

From1975to1995,woodprovidedabout5%ofNewZealand’senergyneeds.(18)Thus,developedcountriesarefarmorevulnerabletoeconomiccollapsethroughoildepletionthanaredevelopingcountries.However,developingcountriesaremorevulnerabletofaminethanaredevelopedcountrieswhentransportandfoodsuppliessuffersignificantcostincreases.

Whatisthegovernmentposition?Likemostothergovernmentsthroughouttheworld,itdoesnothing.Thisisnotbecauseitknowsnothingaboutthecomingcrisis.ItsownSOE,Scion,haspublishedafullreportontheadoptionofaNewZealandstrategyforhandlingthecrisis.(13)Moreover,theNZgovernmentmaintainsacloseworkingrelationshipwiththegoverningbodiesofitsnearestneighbour,Australia.TheDepartmentofPrimaryIndustries

fortheStateofVictoriahasissuedapaperon“PlantationsforEnergy”.Ontransportfuelsthepapersays:

Currently,thebiomass‐basedtransportfuelsmostcommonlyusedarebio‐dieselandethanol.Thesefuelsaremainlysourcedfromplantswithasuitablestarchandsugarcontent,suchassugarcane,potato,cornandgrains.Thesearecommonlyknownas“firstgeneration”biofuels.“Secondgeneration”biofuelspromiseamoreadvancedandefficientproductionofliquidbiofuelsandincludetheextractionofenergy‐producingsugarsfromcellulose.Celluloseisfoundinhighconcentrationsinwoodytissue,whichincludesforestryandagriculturalresidues.Currentresearchaimstomakethisformofbiofuelavailableforuseinthecommunityandhassignificantpotentialtoaddressclimatechangeissues,decliningoilsuppliesandasolutiontothecurrentconcernsregardingtheuseoffoodcropsasenergy.

NZiswellplacedtoadoptandmanagesecondgenerationbiofuels.Wherewillwegetourreplacementfeedstock?Theprimaryanswerhastobethesurfaceofourland.Ourhistory,cultureandpopulationnumberssupportastrategybasedonlandandbiomass.Whatkindoffuel?Astudyofoptionssuggestssomeprinciplesthatshouldbeusedtoguidethenewfuelsofchoice.ToeducatedinhabitantsoftheSouthPacific,theprincipleswilllooklikesimplecommonsense.TomostinhabitantsoftheNorthernHemispheretheymaylooklikeamixtureofcommonsenseandheresy.(Thecultureofmostsuchinhabitantsisheavilyimpregnatedwithabeliefinmining,regardlessofwhetherornotitissustainable.)Givenworldbeliefs,theproposedFundamentalPrinciplesofAdaptation(FPA)tooildepletioninNZareproposedasfollows:

a) BiomassfitsNZskillsandpopulationnumbersanddistribution;b) PlantationforestsarepartofNZnationalexperience;c) Recentoverseasresearch(particularlyonthehighmethanecontentofgrassand

leaves)pointstofulltreeconversionintoenergyasthepreferredmanagementtool(20);

d) Economicefficiencypointstomulti‐goalplantations(suchastheshorttermgrowthoftreesforlargescalewoodyproductionand,longterm,oftreesfornaturallystrong,durable,andcheaptimberforhouseframing)asthestrategyofchoice;

e) Plantationmethodsshouldtargetsoilsvulnerabletodegradationandwelldesignedtreemixtures,abletoprovidetheirownshelteragainststrongwindsinhighcountry,asthepreferredplantationpattern;

f) Plantationdesignshouldincludeprovisionforeasyloggingandpermanentconservationofridgesoil,possiblybynativetreespecies(e.g.beech),thusconstitutingareservededicatedtopermanentridgesoilprotection;

g) Landdedicatedtoenergyusemustnotdiminishfoodproduction(13)subjecttoexportdemandnotdroppingseverely;

h) Thetechnologyusedforbiomassconversionshouldbecapableofprocessingawiderangeofrawmaterialspossessingastronghydrogencomponent;

i) Thebasegoalofabiomasstakeoverofpetroleumoil(now,ornearcompletionoftheminingprocess)shouldbetoproducethegreatestpossibleamountofenergyfortransportpurposesfromlanddisplayingtheleastpossibledisturbanceoffoodproduction,thusmaintainingexporttrade;

j) AutomotivemanufacturersshouldbeinformedassoonaspracticableofNewZealand’spolicyontheproductionofsubstitutionarytransportfuelsandtheimplicationsofnewfuelsforvehiclepowersystems;

k) NewZealand’spreferredfuelshouldbebasedonestablishedtechnologyatthetimeofinitialtransition.

l) Fastgrowing,water‐basedplantsofferattractivesourcesofbiomass,particularlywhengrowthratescanbestimulatedbyurbansewage,butbecauseoflimitedwetlandareasavailableforthepurpose,theircontributiontoenergymustbesupplementarytothatofplantationforestsonerosionprone(EP)land.

EvidencesupportingFPApointstotheselectionofmethanolratherthanthegovernment‐toutedethanolasapreferred,basicfuelfortransportpurposes.Itssecondstageprocess(catalyticconversionofgastoliquidfuel)enablesthecollateralinputofbothwoodgasandmethanefromhydratesforliquefactionprocessing.Thisisimportanttoacountrywithlarge,dangerousmarinedepositsofmethanehydrates,vulnerabletoatmosphericdischargethroughglobalwarming.InNZ,theycurrentlyhaveonly2*Cofoceanicsecurity.Someweatherforecastsindicateariseof3*Cthiscentury.Theuseofmethanehydratesforenergyproduction,althoughnotsustainable,iswarrantedbecauseofthevulnerabilityofhydratestomeltingandreleaseofmethane(about17timesaspowerfulasCO2asagreenhousegas)asglobalwarmingcontinueswiththeuseofoil‐basedfuels.Thispointconstitutesastrongargumentinfavourofarapidratherthanadelayedshifttobiomassenergy.

Largescalewoodyproductionsuggestsacarefullookatpines,poplars,redwoods,eucalyptsandcypresstreesfortheshortrotationproductionofwoodandleavesasrawmaterialforconversionintoliquidfuel.(Arecentpaper[20]reportsanexperimentshowingthatleavesandgrassesarerichinmethane,thusforthefirsttimeopeningthedoorto100%useoftreematerialasinputforliquidfuelproduction.)Thechoiceofspeciesshouldmakeuseofnaturalcoppicegrowthtospeedregrowthfollowingfelling,inordertomaintainandextendtheexistingstoreofcarboninroots,andtofitclimateandsitesoilconditions.TheScionreportonbioenergyoptionsforplantationtrees(3.4millionhectaresofsteepEPcountry)givessitelocationsandapointertoapossiblemodeoforganisation.(13)

Forlongrotationtimberpurposes,differentselectioncriteriashouldapply.Suchtreescouldbeplantedwithshortrotationtreesinsomethinglikeachequer‐boardpatternto

createagrowingenvironmentconducivetotheprovisionofshelterinyoungtreesandofloggingmethodsappropriatetovaryingperiodsofgrowth.(ItwasmainlytheomissiontosupplyshelterthatbroughtaboutthefailureofthetungoilplantationsnearKaikoheduringthe1930s.Strongwindsonridgescanconstituteagrowthproblemonsteepcountry.)Possiblecandidatesforlongtermuseinclude:

a) tallowwood(Eucalyptusmicrocorys–airdrydensity[ADD]about990kg/m3),b) blackbutt(E.pilularis–ADDabout900kg/m3)andc) yellowstringybark(E.muellerana–ADDabout870kg/m3).(2)

TheevidenceforNZgrowntallowwoodwillbegivenlater.Allthreespecieshavebeentriedforplantationgrowthonthewriter’sfarminLowerNorthAucklandandfoundsatisfactoryforgrowthandform.

NZhousespresentaspeciallongtermproblem.Atpresent,theirframingis(oroughttobe)treatedPinusradiata.ItsADDrangesfrom450to580kg/m3(2).Pineisnowthedominantplantationspecies.Itswood(nearlyallsapwood)issubjecttowater‐basedrotandneedstreatmenttopreventtheonsetofprematuredecay.(Treatmentcanonlypenetratethesapwood.)Largepressurecylindersareusedfortreatmentandrequiresignificantamountsofenergyforimpregnation.Postoil,thecostofenergyfortreatmentandtransportationoftimberwillbegreaterthanispossibleforfuelsdrawnfromcheapoilbecauseoftheneedforintervening,expensiveprocessingoftherawmaterial.Ifframingisproducedfromplantation‐growneucalyptsofrelativelyhighdensity,thusnotleavingtheirdwellingsvulnerabletoframingdecay,twoadvantageswillaccrue:

a) Absenceoftreatmentwilllowercost;b) Thegreaterstrengthofhighdensitytimbergivesbuilderstheoptionof

usingsmallertimbersizesorwiderspacesorboth.

Somethinglikea30yeartermshouldbeusedforthegrowthofframingtimberanda3to10yeartermforenergy.Therawmaterialforenergycouldincludeurbanwastewood(e.g.,Christchurchearthquakewaste),dedicatedplantationwood,millresidues,oldtyres,urbantreedroppingsandprunings,andlonggrassclippings.Sewagedisposalsystemscouldprovideextremelyrapidgrowthsitesforfastgrowingwaterplants.Biomassofdifferenttypescouldsupplyasourceofincomeforlocalbodies.Off‐siteproductionofdesignednail‐freeframingcouldbeusedtoavoidtheneedfordifficulton‐sitenailingofframework.

Ofthethreeeucalyptspeciessuggestedforhouseframingpurposes,onlytwoareneededforplantationgrowth.Thepreferredspeciesaretallowwoodandblackbuttforlongtermplantationgrowth.Thereasonfortwospeciesistobuildinplantationinsuranceagainstunknownrisk.Ifonlyonespeciesisgrown,itisrelatively

vulnerabletounpredictablehazards.Twospecieshalvestheriskwhilestillretainingmajoreconomicadvantagesassociatedwithscale.Bythisstratagem,someofthedisadvantagesassociatedwiththechoiceofasinglespecies(Pinusradiata–notableforthescaleofgrowthofsapwood)inNewZealand’sforestmonoculturecanbeavoided.

Technical

Abiomassscenariofortheproductionoftransportfuelsisessentiallysustainablebecauseitsgrowthprocessesabsorbcarbonfromtheatmospherewhileitsprocessingstagewilleitherreturnitorenableconvenientsequestration.Thelongertheperiodofstorageandthegreaterthevolumeextracted,themoreatmosphericcarbonisreduced.Thispointhasimplicationsforplantationmanagement.Shortrotationplantationsleavestumpsatharvest.Ifcroppingforfollow‐oncropscanbedoneviacoppiceregrowth,therootsystemfortheprecedingcropmaintainsitsgrowthanditsstoreofcarbon.Ifpracticable,weshouldensurethatthestoreofcarbongrowscontinuouslyassuccessiveenergycropsareharvested.Globally,ashifttobiomassfuelsenablesmantomanipulatetheamountofcarbonintheatmosphereandsoinfluencetemperatureandclimate,nottomentionpoliticaldebate.

Theprocessingofwoodtoyieldalcoholgoesbackto1648.ItbecamethemainstayofHitler’sarmedforcesinWorldWarii.AccordingtoareportoftheMethanolInstitute(Washington,D.C.)publishedin2006,methanol’scommercialuse“hasfocusedprimarilyonitsvalueasabuildingblockforthousandsofconsumerproductsfromplasticsandpaintstoconstructionmaterialsandwindshieldwasherfluid.”(26)Whenusedininternalcombustionenginesitcarrieshalftheenergysuppliedbygasoline.WhenusedinFCVs,itmatchesgasolineforenergybecauseofthegreaterenergyefficiencyofFCVs.(Only17to20%oftheenergyingasolineisusedtomoveavehicle,whereas75to86%oftheelectricitydeliveredtoanelectricvehiclegoesintomotion.{21})TheInstitutereportsthata50kw.fuelsystemforavehiclewillcostaboutUS$2500,thusbeingcomparabletothecostofinternalcombustionengines(ICEs).

Currently,themainoperationaladvantageofmethanolovergasolineisitssafetyrecord.TheInstitutewrites:“Methanolisoneofthesafestandmostenvironmentallysoundfuelsavailable.IntheUnitedStatesthereareover180,000vehiclefireseachyearinwhichgasolineisthefirstmaterialtoignite.AccordingtotheEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,aswitchtomethanolcouldreducetheincidenceofthesefiresby90%,saving720lives,preventingnearly3900seriousinjuries,andreducingpropertylossesbymillionsofdollars.”(26)AnyNZgovernmentinterestedinthehealthandemploymentofitscitizenswouldaccordtopprioritytoswitchingfromgasolinein

ICEvehiclestomethanolinFCVsbyregulatingimportsanddomesticeconomicstorenderafullDIYsystemsustainable,efficientandobligatory.Theresult(ifachievedinthenearfuture)wouldbeamarkedimprovementinourtradebalance,improvedadaptationtoourenvironment,asignificantimprovementtolifeandhealth,asignificantreductioninunemploymentandsmoothpassagetoanoil‐freeworld.

IntheGermancityofFreiberg,Saxony,ChorenIndustrieshasestablishedanoperationalplantdesignedtoconvertwastewoodintoliquidfuel.IthasestablishedamarketingarrangementwithafirminBeijing.Itsbasictechnologyinvolvesthegasificationofsolidmatterandtheconversionoftheresultantgasintoliquidfuel.Thecompanyappearstobeinterestedinlicensingittechnologicalknowhow.Atthistime,anydealingswiththefirmwouldfirstrequireanassessmentofthenatureandqualityofitsfuelproducts.Asthisisthefirstfirmtoattemptthelargescalecommercialadoptionofgasificationandliquefactiontechnology,astudyofitsoperationscouldbeofassistanceforengineeringpurposes.

Elsewhereintheworld,methanolisprocessedfromnaturalgas.ThistechnologyisusedinNZ.MethanexNewZealandLtd.,aCanadian‐ownedcompany,hasitsexecutiveofficeinAucklandanditsprocessingplantsinTaranaki.Itsproductsarelargelyexported.Atpresent,itisnotinterestedinexpandingitsrawmaterialinputtoincludebiomass.

Inthecourseofconvertingpetroleumoilintopetrolfuel,refinerieshavebeenestablishedworld‐wide,includingNZ.Theydoalotmorethansimplyrefinetherawmaterial.Theyalsoaddfurthercomponentstoaidtheefficiencyofthecombustionprocess.Whetheradditivesmaybeneededtoconvertfactorymethanolintosomethingthemotoristwillneedremainstobefullytested.

Aconsiderableamountofworkhasgoneintoexperimentationswithblendsofpetrolusingthealcoholsasadditives.Volkswagen(VW)beganaseriesoftestsof45vehiclesin1975usinggasolineand15%methanol.Olahetal.(26)reportthatminimalmodificationsweremadetoexistingengines.VWfoundthattheblendworkedefficientlywithminorproblems.Themethanolactedasanoctaneboosterenablingtheblendtodelivermorepowerthancouldpuregasoline.VWalsotested5vehiclesrunningonpuremethanol.Theyfoundthatthelowervolatilityofmethanolledtocoldstartproblemsbutthatproblemcouldbesolvedbyaddingsmallquantitiesofbutaneorpentane.Allinall,comparativelyminorexperimentalworkinNZ,coupledwithminorvehicleadjustmentsmadebymanufacturers,wouldseebiomass‐basedfuels(methanolanddiesel)providesustainablereplacementfuelsthatwouldnotdamageworldclimateandwouldassistinstabilisinghighcountrysoils–withoutsignificantlossoffood!Olahetal.discussadecisionbyBankofAmericatoconvertmostofitsvehiclefleettomethanolfuelin1980.Morethan200vehiclessofuelledaccumulatedover30millionkm.ontheroads.TheBankconcludedthat,compared

withgasolinepoweredcars,theuseofneatmethanolwascheaper,increasedtheengine’slifespan,andgreatlydecreasedexhaustpollutants.

Avoluntaryshifttomethanolbeforetherun‐downofoilcompelssuchastepenablesICEvehiclestousemethanolimmediately,enablestreestogrowintimelyfashion,stimulatesresearchandbringsuptheissueoftreespecies.Woodqualityforshortterm(e.g.3to10years)energyproductiondoesnotimpactontheselectionoftreespecies.Longtermgrowthfortimberframingdoes.Thewriter’sfamilycompanyhasafarmwestofWarkworth.Atrialwasundertakenin1980.TheforestliteratureaccordedhighmarksforstrengthanddurabilitytoEucalyptusmicrocorys,yieldingtallowwood.WouldthesamepropertiesbefoundinmaterialgrowninNZ?Theclimateandsoilswereobviouslydifferent.Tofindout,onetreeplantedin1980neartherailwaylinewasfelledinMay,2009andmilledonsite.Theresultanttimberwasstoredinanairdryingunitforoverayear.Atestedsamplerevealedadensityof889.55atamoisturecontentof12.4%.Bootle(2)quotesanADDofabout900forAustraliangrowntallowwood.ANewZealanddensityfigureof890foraplantationtreeonly29yearsinthegroundstronglysupportstheconclusionthatthereisnosignificantdensitydifferencebetweenNZandAustraliangrowntreesoftheE.microcorysspecies.

Whatistallowwood?NewZealandersdonotknowit,buttheyarefamiliarwithitsuses.WalkdownanystreetinanytowninNZandlookupward.Thepolesyouwillseearetheretosupportcross‐arms,whichsupportwires.Wiresareheavyandmustwithstandstrongwindsfromtimetotime.Theirsupportingcross‐armsmustbeverystrong.Chancesarehighthatthecross‐armyouseewillbemadefromtallowwood.

Forshorttermspecies,growthrateseemstheobviousdeterminateforselection.ForthelowerNorthIsland,threespecieshavebeenfoundtobesuitable:Pinusradiata,EucalyptusfastigataandSequoiasempervirens.(25)Selectioncriteriawerehealth,sitingandproductivity.Theydidnotincludereproductionbycoppice.ThatmightexcludeP.radiataforshorttermuse.Someresearchmaybeneededtorefinepreferencesforliquidenergy.ForotherpartsofNZ,otherspeciesshouldbeaddedtothelistforshorttermselection.OnegenusthatmayrequireexclusionisSyncarpia(Turpentines).Currentevidencesuggeststhatitisfireretardantandwillnotburnexceptinhotfiresinmixturewithmoreflammablewoods.(30)AnothergenusrequiringcareinselectionisSalix.ItmaynotadjustwelltoEPsites.

Theenergycontentofwoodhasnotbeenadequatelytestedinrelationtospecies.Amongpeopleinterestedinfarmingtreesforenergy,thecommonviewisthatspeciesdifferencesdonotmatter.Thisseemscontrarytocommonsense.Hardwoodsmaycontaindoublethenumberofcellsinequivalentvolumesofmaterial.Celluloseisacarbohydrateformingthemainconstituentofplantcellwalls.Itseemstobethekeytotheorganicproductionofmethane,orCH4.Thissuggeststhat,bydoublingwood

density,naturehasdoubledthequantityofwoodgasproduced.Horgan(18)holdsasimilarview.Hewrites:“Whileonamassbasis,woodenergycontentisnotaffectedbydensity,densitydoesmatterwhencomparisonsaremadeonavolumebasis.BasicdensitiesofcommonlyencounteredNZtreespeciescanvaryalmosttwofoldfromlittlemorethan300kg/m3toover600kg/m3.Theheatcontent/volumewillalsovarysimilarly.”Theissueneedscarefultestingforthepurposesoffuelenergyderivedfromthegasificationandliquefactionofwood.

Ofcriticalimportancetomanagementisthelackofresearch.Allcommentatorsareatoneonthisissue.Atthistime,oneproblemremainsunsolvedaheadofallothers.Foraforestresourcetobasetransportfuels,whatisthebestpossibleuseofscarceland?Atthebeginningofaprogrammetobuildupasustainable,biomassresourceweneedtoknowwhichspeciesproducethemostenergywhenconvertedintoliquidfuel.Asabonus,wewanttoknowwhichspeciescandothejobintheshortesttime.Alternativetechnologies(withparticularreferencetoGhanaandtheThirdWorld)werediscussedinareporttotheAmericanSocietyofAgriculturalEngineers.Theofficerresponsibleforthereportdiscussedgoodpracticeinevaluatingoptions.Theywere:

a) Searchfortree,bushorplantspeciesthatmightbehigherenergycollectorsthanthecommonlumberandpulpwoodvarieties;

b) Followanewstrategyinthebreedinganddevelopmentofconventionalfieldcropsinordertomaximiseenergyproduction;

c) Managemixedfarmingmethodstoyield(inGhana)food,fodder,energy,fibreandlumberproduction.(1)

Inmanyways,NZisstronglyresistanttochange.Sofar,ithasnotexperiencedthekindofbully‐boytacticsthathavedamagedAustraliaandtheUSinadaptingtooilrun‐down.Inertiahasbeentheenemyofadaptation.InertiahascharacterisedtheattitudeoftheLabourandNationalpartiestothedevelopmentofnewfuels.Not,however,theMaoriparty.Mrs.TureanaTuria,oneofitsleaders,hasdisplayedakeeninterestin,andanextensiveknowledgeof,renewablefuels.Amongthepopulationatlarge,indifferenceisthekeynoteattitude.Oilhasbecomeapartofthecommonculture–abitlikethestonecultureofGothiccathedralsinthe12thcentury–justpartofthescenery.Oilanditsderivativeshavecreptintoourlanguageunnoticed.Wordsandexpressionslikecar,automobile,lorry,tinlizzy,ginpalace,beachbomb,petrolheadandgasguzzlerallowetheiradoptiontooilanditsderivatives.Theyarepartofourcommonmentalfurniture.

Whenoilcompaniesplancounter‐attacksonrenewablefuels,theystartwithahugeculturaladvantage.Theycansimplyusecommonmentalfurnituretodistractattentionawayfromuncomfortableadaptationtoenvironmentalchangeandtowardscomfortablerelianceonthestatusquo.AnexampleofthisphenomenonrecentlyemergedinAuckland.MayorLen

BrownhassuggestedarailwaytrainlinkthroughtheCBD,includingasubterraneanlinethroughlowerQueenStreet–justafewfeetabovethehighwatermarkoftheadjoiningWaitemataHarbour.Hehastotallyignoredthepossibilityofrisingsealevelsdrowningthetunnel.Sucharisehasbeenpredictedforlowlyinglandthiscentury.ClimatewarmingmeltsAntarcticiceandliftsoceanlevels.Andnoonehasnoticed!FortunatelyforAucklanders,theGovernmentvetoedtheprojectforfinancialreasons.Thus,AucklandcommuterswillnothavetoswimoutoftheBritomartPlacetunnelathightidelaterthiscentury,thankstoanaccidentofGovernmentpennypinching.

FormanyyearstheNZeconomyhasstutteredalong,displayingminorannualgains.Itsprop,oil,hasbeenthefocusofattentionbyoil‐wealthyandlargeindustrialstates.NZhaswatchedmanagementofoilfromthesidelines.Ifbiofuelsdominatetheeconomicskyline,NZcouldbeinaverydifferentposition.Ithascertainnaturaladvantagesinanenergyworlddominatedbybiofuels.Ithasalargeareaoflandsuitableforbiomassgrowth,apopulationaccustomedtoanagriculturalbasefortheeconomy,lotsofexpertiseinfoodproduction,distributionandsales,plentyofmarineexpertise,anadequatebaseforresearch,developmentandsalesofbiofuels,andawell‐tunedsocialconscience,allcriticaltoleadershipofaworldneedinganewdealinmobileenergy.

Fortheindividual,theintroductionofanewfuelhassomeexcitingpossibilities.Itopensthedoortoinnovation,newknowledgeandnewenterprise.Suchopportunitiesdonotopenupinavacuum.Theyaretenderflowers,nurturedinquantityonlyinbroadlyfavourableenvironments.Thisiswhereforestbiomasscomesintoitsown.Asanovelfeedstockforanessentialcommodity,itspotentialdemand(whentranslatedintotransportfuel)isontheglobalscale.Fortheindividualaspiringtofameandfortune,theopportunityforinnovationisopenedupbyanewfuel.Forhim(orher),knowledgeispower,innovationisitskey,andglobalinterestinrelevanttechnologyrepresentspotentialreinforcementonahugescale.Forthepolitician,newenergyalsoopensuptheneedandtheopportunitytointroduceprotectivemeasuresforintellectualpropertyandtradingrights.

Political

Digginguppetroleumoilandrefiningitisoneapproachtothesupplyoftransportfuels.Growingbiomassandconvertingsolidrawmaterialintoliquidsisanother.Thetwotechniquesarelikechalkandcheese.Aworld‐wideshiftfromonetoanothernecessarilyrequiresacultureshiftofepicproportions.Whowantsit?Answer,almostnobody.Whoneedsit?Answer,wealldo.Why?Theanswerhasseveralparts:

1. Nothingonearthwillstophumansfromextractingoiltofeedtheirinsatiabledemandformobilityandindustrialproductsuntiloilsuppliesareexhausted.

2. Oilhasdevelopedintoafundamentalpropfortransport,foodproduction,itsdistribution,theworldeconomyandasacomponentofahugevarietyofmanufacturedproducts.

3. Withoutoil,theworldpopulationcouldnotreachthepredicted9billionthiscentury.(16)

4. Withoutoil,famine(actualorthreatened)wouldhavepreventedpopulationgrowth,mainlyduringthe20thcentury,ofatleast3.6billionpeople.

5. Oilrepresentsthesun’shistoriccontributiontolifebythestorageofsolarenergyinorganicmatterunderthesurfaceofplanetearthformillionsofyears.

6. Solarstorageofenergyinorganicmatteriscurrentlyeffectedbyleavesatlowtemperaturesbutnobodyhasworkedouthowleavesdoit.

7. Man’sonlylong‐termhopeofreducingtheroleoffamineincontrollingitspopulationoverhangofsome4billion(basedonexistingknowledge)istomanagethesolarroleindevelopingorganicmattertosupplytheenergyneedsofhumansinanewway.

8. Currentknowledgeindicatesthatfaminecontrolismainlylimitedtolandmanagement.

9. Landmanagementofenergycropsandtheirprocessingwillinevitablyincreasethecostofmobileenergy.

10. Thelongerlandmanagementofmobileenergyisdelayed,thegreaterwillbetheroleoffamineincontrollingpopulation.

Politicianshaveknownthesesimplefactsfordecades.Hereinliesthecriticalproblem.Itsindicativesolutionrunscountertoeverythingtheystandfor.Theyareshorttermpeople.Byunspokenconsensus,leadersofallstripesandsystemsthroughoutthegreatpartoftheworld’slandareahaveside‐steppedtheissue.Onestratagemhasbeentocloudtheproblembymaskingitslanguage.Itsoundslessominoustotalkaboutthefeedbacktohumansfromthedisappearanceofminingmobileenergyratherthantoexamineminingitself.Theterm“climatechange”doesnotsoundthreatening.Whenitcomestomining,NewZealandispartofaninformal,internationalpoliticalclub.IwrotetotwoNZleadersaboutoildepletion.OnerecipientofaletterwastheLabourPMatthetime,HelenClark.AnotherrecipientwastheNationalleader,JohnKey.Hereceivedtwoletters–oneasLeaderoftheOppositionandtheotherasPM.Thelettersdidnotresultinasinglereply.TherecanbeonlytwopossibleinterpretationsofMinisterialsilence.Theyeithercannotproduceasolutionoftheproblemortheybelievethattheelectoratewillnotswallowtheneededmedicine.PresumablytheirParliamentarycolleaguesfeelthesameway,judgingfromtheirsilenceontheissue.

Thestoryofpetroleumoilillustratesanaspectofhumanbehaviourthatreceiveslittlepublicity.Maniscleveratinteractingwithhisenvironmenttosatisfyappetitiveandmobilitydriveswherehisactionsproduceimmediateandpositiveresults.Heisnotcleverat,andprobablynotinterestedin,protectingtheabilityofhisdescendantstodothesamething.TheNZHeraldofthe5thMay2011reportsadecisionofthefederalandSouthAustraliangovernmentstoreleasetheWoomeraRocketRangeformining.Theareacontainsvaststorehousesofgold,copper,ironoreanduranium.ItisbiggerthanEngland.AccordingtoStatepremier,MikeRann,“wearetalkingaboutthousandsofjobsformorethan100years,anditisaresourcethatisvaluedatmorethanA$1.4trillion.”WiththedemiseoftheColdWar,whocouldresistsuchamove?TheHeraldcouldn’t.Clearly,theimmediacyandmagnitudeoftherewardsmakeRann’smoveapredictableelectionwinner.Howwilltheminingbepowered?Byfossilfuelsasusual,stupid!

MikeRannisplayingtoAustralianstrengthbypitchinghispoliticalappealtomining.JohnKeycoulddothesameinNZbyleadingamovetoplant3.4millionhectaresofEPcountryinsustainableenergycrops.Hedoesnot.Clearly,AustraliaandNZareverydifferentcountries,ofdifferentareasandcomposition,andofverydifferentgeologicalages.Theirenvironmentsofferdifferenteconomicopportunities.Historysuggeststhat,inthemodernworldandinthelightofminingculturestillplayingadominantroleinAustralianandAmericanpolitics,thepoliticalinfluenceoftheminerexceedsthatoftheforester.Butwheredoesthescientiststandintheinfluencestakes?Andwhatshouldbetheroleofpoliticians?

Sincemanemergedfromtheforest,sexdrivesandfoodneedshavebeeninchronicconflict.PeterGoodchild(11)describestheissuethus:“Atsomepointintheearlyyearsofthe21stcentury,therewillbeaclashoftwogiantforces:overpopulationandoildepletion.”The

worldwilllooktoitsleaderstoguidenationsintheirapproachtothisconflict.Thereisnothingnewaboutthefundamentalsoftheconflict.Manhasalwaysattemptedtoliftpopulationnumbersbeyondthelimitsimposedbyfoodavailability.Ingoodyears,thewarappearedtohavebeenwon.Inbadyears,foodcropsfailedandfamineruled.Itsvictoriesshowedupindeathstatistics.Commonly,famineslastedfor6to10years.Somewereaccompaniedbypestilenceofvaryingtypes.Sometriggeredwar.Somedegeneratedintocannibalism.AvailablerecordscovertheEurasionlandmass,stretchtothewestofEnglandandIrelandanddatebacktosome1000yearsB.C.ThemostseverefamineinEnglandoccurredinthereignofEthelredtheUnreadyandlastedfrom1005to1016.Accordingtocontemporarychronicles,halfthepopulationperished.Some3yearsaftertheConquest,in1069,northernpeasants,beingnolongerabletosecuredogsandhorsestoappeasehunger,soldthemselvesintoslaveryinordertobefedbymasters.

In1314,heavyrainspoiledtheharvest.Edwardiiwasscarcelyabletofeedhishousehold.Thedeadlinedtheroadsides.Dogs,horses,catsandevenbabieswereeaten.Whenanewcriminalwasthrownintogaol,hewastorntopiecesbyotherstarvinginmatesandeaten.InFrance,between987and1059,48faminesdevastatedthepeasantry,alltriggeredbyclimaticdisasters.InIreland,duetopotatocropfailures,faminestruckbetween1844and1850andcausedthepopulationtodropfrom8.3millionto6.6millionthroughdeathandemigration.Russianfaminesoccurredin1891,1906and1911.Thatof1911affectedover1/3rdoftheEmpireinEurope(30millionpeople)andreducedsome8milliontostarvation.InChina,faminebrokeoutin1846–1849andaccountedfor45milliondeaths.Alateronein1906–1910accountedfor10milliondeaths.

Historically,faminedeathsrepresentnature’swayofmaintainingatolerablebalancebetweentheforcesofprocreationandenvironmentalsupport.Theyrevealnoresultsofvaryingleadershipskills.Theirplaceinhistoryisnolongerregardedasofpracticalimportance,duetothelongeconomicreinofpetroleumoil.Inmostoftheworld,decisionsaretakeninrelianceontheopinionsofeconomic“experts”.Ifthisattitudecontinues,theworldfacesamonumentaldisaster.Leadersandled,politiciansandelectors,willallbeontheendangeredlistwhenoilrunsout.M.K.Hubbert’s(19)predicteddateforthecompleteextinctionofoildepositswas2075.Church(4)predictsacrunchdateof2040.Oil’slifetimeseemstobecontracting.Thecontractionisprobablyrelatedtounpredicteddemandassociatedwithpopulationgrowth.Churchwrote:.

”EatingOil”wasthetitleofabookwhichwaspublishedin1978followingthefirstoilcrisisin1973.Theaimofthebookwastoinvestigatetheextenttowhichfoodsupplyinindustrialisedcountriesrelieduponfossilfuels.Inthesummerof2000thedegreeofdependenceonoilintheUKfoodsystemwasdemonstratedonceagainwhenprotestorsblockadedoilrefineriesandfueldistributiondepots.Thefuelcrisesdisruptedthedistributionoffoodandindustryleaderswarnedthattheirstoreswouldbeoutoffoodwithindays.Thelessonsof1973havenotbeenheeded.Todaythefoodsystemisevenmorereliantoncheap,

crudeoil.Virtuallyalloftheprocessesinthemodernfoodsystemarenowdependentuponthisfiniteresource,whichisnearingitsdepletionphase.Moreover,……thefoodsystemislengtheningitssupplychainsandincreasingemissionstothepointwhereitisasignificantcontributortoglobalwarming.

Thedangerinherentinusingoil‐basedfueltosubsidisefoodsupplyanddistributionisdevelopedfurtherbyJayTomcz.WritingintheEnergyBulletinofDecember2005hesays:

Ourcurrentindustrializedfoodsystemisnotsustainableduetoitsoverdependenceonnon‐renewablefossilfuelenergyanditsdegradationofthenaturalsystemsonwhichitdependsforitsexistence.Ifactiontochangetheseaspectsofthefoodsystemisnottaken,conveningresourcedepletionanddegradationwillcausethefoodsystemtocollapse.Ourfoodsystemistheresultofthe“greenrevolution”whichcreatedgreatlyincreasedcropyieldsbyusinglargeamountsoffossilfuelenergyintheformofsyntheticnitrogenfertilizers,petroleumbasedagrochemicals,dieselpoweredmachinery,refrigeration,irrigationandanoildependentdistributionsystem.Thissystemdestroysbiodiversity,contributestoglobalclimatechange,anddegradessoilandwaterquality.”(33)

Inthispicture,theroleofnationalleaders(autocraticordemocratic)changesdramatically.Uptothispoint,theyhavehadnoresponsibilityformaintainingstabilitybetweenthepopulationandcropforces.Oildepletionchangesallthat.Suchdepletionconstitutesachangeintheglobalenvironmentthathasbeenbroughtaboutbyhumans.Itarosefromtheuseofpetroleumoilonascalecomparabletotheglobalconversionofnaturalforestsintopastureland.ItsexhaustioncanbepartiallymadegoodbytheafforestationofEPlandinNZatleast,andbytheinstallationthereofaprocessingplantorplants.Ifactionistakenrapidly,therewillbeashortperiodofcompetitionbetweenbiomass‐andoil‐basedfuels.GovernmentcanregulatesuchcompetitionduringthetakeoverphasetoensuresurvivalofaNZgrowingandprocessingenterpriseessentialforfoodprotection,bothfordomesticconsumptionandinourglobaltrade.Itcandomore.Itcanandshouldstimulateinvestmentinfarmwoodlotsandprocessingplant(s)andparticipateintheirfinancing.

TheopportunityandresponsibilityfacingtheNZgovernmentarewithoutworldprecedence.Theyarebasedontheworkofscientistsandnotuponprecedentreliedonbylawyers,civilservantsandpoliticians.Itisevidencebasedratherthanjudiciarybased.Theneedtoactonchangingtheresourcebaseoftransportfuelshasbothitsnegativeanditspositiveaspects.Actionisrelativelysimple.ItinvolvesanextensionofplantationforestmethodswellbeddeddowninNZ,theimplementation,extensionandrefinementoftheSustainableLandManagementHillCountryErosionProgrammealreadyadoptedbyGovernmenttoimprovewaterandsoilmanagement,theuseofdistributionmethodsestablishedforoil‐basedfuels,andtheconstructionofaprocessingplantorplantsalonglinesfamiliartoengineers.Thisamountstoacommercialprogramme,neededtoworklargescale,fromastandingstart.Stateinitiativeandprotectionofanovelkindwillthusconstituteanessentialcomponent.Politicalideologywillbeirrelevant.Multi‐disciplinaryexpertisewillbeessential.While

populationandeconomicpressureshaveshortenedtheexpectedtimeperiodfortheneededchange‐overfromaterminaldateof2075to2040,theeffectivedateofcommercialcrisisisstillabout2030,thusleavingaveryshortbut(possibly)achievableperiodofadaptation,givenimmediateandurgentaction.

Incontrast,governmentinactionwillleaveNZatthemercyofoilcompanies’tradingpolicydrivenbyadecliningresourcebase.Currentevidencepointstotransportfuelsbeingsuppliedbythecompaniesforaslongaspossiblefromtheirpresentresourcebase–extendedifpossiblebytheminingofboundoil.Thesameattitudeseemstoapplytothemanufactureofmethanolfromnaturalgas.Iftheoilandmethanolcompaniesseemintent,longterm,oncommercialsuicide,thatistheirprerogative.Itisnot,however,arecipeforresponsiblegovernmentbecauseitwilllead,inevitably,tofaminedeathsthiscenturyofunprecedentedproportions.OfthetwocontrastingcoursesofactionopentotheNZgovernment,neverinhistoryhavetheissuesbeensostark.Theyboildowntoachoicebetweencourageousactionleadingtolongtermeconomicsurvival,comparedwithself‐servinginaction,soallowingfamineonaglobalscaletoreinstateitsrule.

Asanation,NZfacesasituationwhereprompt,broad‐basedactioncanbeexpectedtoleadtoworldrewardsintermsofemployment,capitalreturns,governmentinitiativeandworldstatus.Ontheotherhand,failuretoactwillleavethecountryfacingfiercepressuretoadmitstarvingmigrantswhiledealingwithamoribundeconomyandahorrificpublicdebt.ItisnoconsolationtolearnthattheUS,partsoftheEUandtheUKmaybeinanevenworseposition.

Atheoreticalissueconfrontingtheworldiscaughtupintheexpression“climatechange”.Concernabouttheaetiologyofclimatechangehasobscuredthepracticalissueofoilreplacement.Chemistshavenotbeenroutinelyconsultedonclimatematters.Iftheyhadbeen,someoneislikelytohavepointedoutasimpleremedy.Iftheburningofoil‐derivativesstoresclimate‐changingcarbonintheatmosphere,whynotburnhydrogenandpourwaterintotheocean?Afterall,hydrogenisasplentifulascarbononplanetearth,burnsreadilyandconvertsintoharmlesswater.Itmakesupamajorpartofthegreenhousegasmethane(CH4)butintheliquidmethanolbecomesaharmlessfuelwhich,whenburnt,yieldspotentiallyvaluablewater.Automobileemissionscouldthenchangerolefromenemytohelper.

WhileNewZealand’spoliticiansremaininthe“donothing“camp,thisisnotentirelytrueinhistoricandadministrativeterms.Scionreportson“BioenergyoptionsforNewZealand”werepublishedin2007and2008.The2007reportrelatedtoplantingmedium‐tolong‐rotationforestsonmarginalland.Itpredictedthat“tomeetthecountry’stotalheatdemand,anestateof700,000hectareswouldberequired.Tomeettheliquidfuelsdemandafurther2.5to2.8millionha.wouldbeneeded.”Itisexpectedthatthereportwaswrittenabout2005becausethefirstyear’splantingsin2007wereexpectedtocomprise:

a) 70,000haofshortrotationforests;b) 20,000ha/yearofmediumrotationforests;c) 80,000ha/yearofpineforestorequivalent.

In2010,plantingswereexpectedtocomprise:

a) 30,000ha/yearinmediumrotationforest;b) 100,000ha/yearinpineforestorequivalent.

In2020,forestplantingswereexpectedtoamountto130,000ha.Theannualareawasexpectedtoreduceto100,000in2030.Productionfrombiofuelswasexpectedfromshortrotationforestsin2010andfromshortandmediumrotationforestsin2020.By2030,biofuelswereexpectedtomeetasignificantproportionofdemand.By2040,domesticsupplywasexpectedtomeet100%ofdemandforliquidfuelsandheat.(13)

Scionisastate‐ownedenterprise.Itssignpostsforsuccessfuladaptationtoanew,DIYenergyworldwerewelldisplayed.Successivegovernmentshavesimplyignoredthesignals.ThroughitsEastCoastForestryProjectGrantschemeofJune,2007,theMinistryofAgricultureandForestrymakescashgrantstofarmerswhoaddresserosiononsteeplandbyplantingradiatapine,Douglasfirorpoplarsbuttheschemehasa50yeartreelife.ThroughitsSLMHillCountryErosionProgrammeofOctober2010,MAFtargetserosion‐pronelandespeciallyinNorthland,Gisborne,Hawkesbay,GreaterWellington,Manawatu‐WanganuiandTaranakibuthasnoimplicationsofwoodbeingusedforenergypurposesandexcludesplantingbefore2012.Itsfocusisentirelyonsoilerosionandflooding.ThefailureofsuccessivegovernmentstoactonenergyleavesNZexposedtoanenergypoor,decliningeconomy–attheleast.ThedeadlineforNZtoachieveaworkable,JIT,takeoverofKingOil’sdominioniswhenoilisnolongeraffordableforessentialtransportandagriculturalproductivepurposes.Withaherculeaneffort,itmaybepossibleforNZtomeetthedeadline,subjectonlytoupdatingofthetreespeciesandthequantitativeannualplantingcomponentsoftheScionprogramme,toasurvivableextent.TheParliamentaryelectionsin2011giveelectorsandcandidatestheopportunitytotakeafreshlookatScion’sDIYsignposts.Itwillbeinterestingtoseehowtheenergy/economicpennylands.

WhereNZpoliticiansfailbadlyisinassessingtheirownself‐interest.Theyconcentrateonmoneywhenexaminingindifferenteconomicperformance.Moneydoesnotpropupeconomicactivity.Energydoes.Byboldlyaddressingthereal‐lifeoilissue,politicianswouldachieveanimportantplaceinhistoryforimaginativestepstakenakintothemananowattachingtothenameWinstonChurchill–anerstwhilenewsreporter,whomadeanuisanceofhimselfduringtheBoerWarandwhoaccuratelypredictedthemenaceofNaziideologyandthestepsneededbyBritaintoprotectitselfagainstinvasion.

Inthesectionon“Globalization”below,referenceismadetothetransitionalperiodbetweentherun‐downofoilandthecommencementofasustainablereplacement.One

conclusionisthattheroleofthenationstatewill,ifanything,becomemoreimportantglobally.InNZ,thiswillbeofcriticalimportanceduringthetransitionalphase.Shiftingrapidlyfromanoil‐dependentregimetoabiomass‐dependentregimewillbeconditionaluponfuelpricesbeingcomparablewitheachother.Thisissuewillinevitablyrequirestateintervention–hopefully,forabriefperiod.Longterm,thereisnoreasontoexpectthatnormalmarketforceswillprevailandenablefarm‐producedtransportfuelstoachievethesamestatusinpublicestimationasdoesmilk.Managingsuchatakeoveriswithoutprecedentinworldhistory.Tosucceed,politicianswouldbewisetolocateexpertisewhereveritmaybefoundandtofollowexpertadvicecarefully.InNZwearefortunateinhavingFonterra’sexperiencetodrawon.Acollateralissuethatshouldbeaddressedisthatoftheneedforstrong,durableandcheapframingtimberforhousesinthepost‐oilworld.

Americaninfluence

TwonationstatesareofparticularinteresttoNewZealanders–theU.S.A.andAustralia.Likethem,wehavecoastlinestothePacificOceanandspeakEnglish–moreorless.TheUSisranked6thintheworldforGDPpercapitain2010(US$47,016)and10thforpublicdebtasaproportionofGDP(58.9%).Wikipediarecordstotalpublicdebt(includingintragovernmentalholdings)inMarch2011atUS$14.26trillionor96.3%ofGDP,ranked12thhighestagainstothernations.In1980acommitteeoftheNationalAcademyofScienceschairedbyeconomistThomasSchellingwrotetoitsparentbodyonthesocialandpoliticalconsequencesofglobalwarming.Hefocusedonphysicalandsocialscientificuncertaintiesonwhatwarmingwouldmean.Inparticular,heemphasizedthehugescaleofthoseuncertaintiesasregardsboththeirphysicaldimensionsandtheircost.Unsurprisingly,hestronglyrecommendedmoreresearch.Hethoughtthatwehadtimetodealwiththeproblem,whichboileddowntoachangeinthedistributionofclimatezonesonEarth.Thetimeperiodforappropriateresearchwassupposedlysufficientforadequateresearch.Itwouldprobablyleadtoariseinthecostoffossilfuelandadecreaseinusage.Inthis,Schellingwasmostlywrong.Overthenext3decades,fuelpriceincreasedbutfossilfueluserosedramatically,andglobalwarmingaccelerated.

WithintheUS,awarofwordseruptedfromabout1980untilthemid‐nineties.Intheonecornerwerethephysicists,solidlybehindhumanresponsibilityforglobalwarming.Intheotherwereanumberofdoubtmerchants,mostlyeconomistswithastrongAmericanbeliefinthepowerandtherightofprivateintereststoextractoilandsupplyenergytotheworld.RespectedAcademymemberslikeJastrow,Seitz,Singer,Nierenbergand(later)MichaelsmadeupadenialgroupthatsettoworktocreatesomethinglikeanewColdWaraimedatbringingaboutado‐nothingCongress.BattletookplacewithintheAcademy,atpublicmeetingsandinleadingAmericannewspapers.ItwassummedupinanAmericanpublicationasfollows:

Thisdivergencebetweenthestateofthescienceandhowitwaspresentedinthemajormediahelpedmakeiteasyforourgovernmenttodonothingaboutglobalwarming.GusSpethhadthoughtin1988thattherewasrealmomentumtowardtakingaction.Bythemid‐1990s,thatpolicymomentumhadnotjustfizzledout;ithadevaporated.InJuly1997,threemonthsbeforetheKyotoProtocolwasfinalized,U.S.senatorsRobertByrdandCharlesHagelintroducedaresolutionblockingitsadoption.Byrd‐HagelpassedtheSenatebyavoteof97‐

0.Scientifically,globalwarmingwasanestablishedfact.Politically,globalwarmingwasdead.(27)

ThesignificanceofthisoutcomeofanAmericancoldwaroversciencewasnotconfinedtoAmerica.In1994,IPCCbegantoputtogetherapositionpaperonclimatechange.BenjaminSanteroftheLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratoryundertooktofindagroupofleadauthors.TheirtaskwouldbetocompleteanagreedversionofChapter8ofapublicationdevotedtothedetectionofclimatechangesandtheattributionofcauses.SanterputforwardadraftofChapter8toameetingorganizedbyIPCCinNovember1995.AmongthosepresentwererepresentativesfromSaudiArabiaandKuwait.AccordingtoaNewYorkTimesreporter,theoil‐richstatesmadecommoncausewithAmericanindustrylobbyiststotrytoweakentheconclusionsofthedraft.Thatmeantadiminutioninthehumancapacitytoadapttochange.AmongthosepresentatthemeetingwasarepresentativeofNZandaloneKenyanwhosuggestedthattherewasnoneedforaChapter8.Presumably,theNZgovernmentwasfullybriefedontheIPCCmeetingin1995.Presumably,itknewallaboutrepresentationsmadebythechairmanofafossilfuelindustrygroup,theGlobalClimateCoalition,andbyautomobileindustryrepresentatives.Whywerethepublicnotinformedoftheoutcomeofthemeetingandofthepressureexertedbycommerciallobbyists?WhywerespecialinterestorganisationssuchasFederatedFarmersandtheNZInstituteofForestrynotbroughtintodiscussion?

Theroleofoilinsupplyingtheessentialbaseenergyfor20thcenturyeconomiesiswellknown.Itsroleinenablingthegreatestpopulationincreaseofanycenturyoverthelast8000years(3.6billionpeople)islesswellknown.Soarepredictionsofthedeathsofequivalentnumbersofpeoplewhenoildisappears.ItappearsthatgovernmentinactioninNZhasbeeninfluencedbyinactionoftheUSgovernmentjustifiedbypropagandaonthepartofAmericanlobbyistsactingforinterestedindustrialgroups,includingoilcompanies.

OnthebasisofAmericanexperience,allegationsofdemocraticstrengthdonotstandup.Againstthepowerofthedollarandthehumanweaknessforshorttermreinforcement,USlegislatorshadnodefence.SowhataboutAustralia?

Australianinfluence

Australianpoliticsissupposedlybasedondemocraticprinciples.Onclimatechange,however,let’sexaminetherecordofSenatorWarwickParerfromQueensland.DemocraticgovernmentprinciplesflewoutthedoorwhenhewasappointedbyJohnHowardtoactasMinisterforResourcesandEnergyin1996.Atthetime,hewaschairmanofQueenslandCoalMineManagement,apositionfromwhichhethenresigned.Parerhasbeendescribedas“anuntiringdefenderofthefossil‐fuelindustriesandthecoalindustryinparticular.”Inthe1970shebecameCEOofUtahMining,oneofthelargestcoalproducersinAustralia.In1978hewasappointedchairoftheAustralianCoalExportersindustrybody.Until1997hegavespeecheslaudingcoalas“thecorner‐stoneofeconomicgrowthintheAsianregionwellintothenextcentury”andpraising“cleancoal”.HeabolishedtheEnergyResearchandDevelopmentCorporationandmadeitclearthatGovernmentwouldrefusetotakeanymeasurestoreduceemissionsthatwould,inhisview,affecteconomicgrowthandemployment.(15)

IthasbeensuggestedthatthefactthatHowardappointedasMinisterofResourcesandEnergyamanwhorejectedgreenhousescience,defendedcoalinterestsandhadalargeinvestmentinthecoalindustry,wassymbolicofhisapproachtoclimatechange.IntheninetiesthegovernmentaskedABARE(AustralianBureauofAgriculturalandResourceEconomics)toprovideanestimateofthecostsofcuttingemissions.TheBureau’sresultswerecapturedinanumberofpublications,twoofwhichwerecarriedaroundtheworldinthebriefcasesofMinistersandpublicservants.In1997131professionaleconomists,including16professorsofeconomics,issuedastatementdeclaringthattheBureau’sconclusionsoverstatedthecostsofabatementmeasuresandunderestimatedbenefits.CriticspointedoutthattheBureaumodelfailedtoallowfortechnologicalchange,overstatedthelikelihoodofjobsgoingoffshore,andpresentedestimatesinagrosslymisleadingway.(15)

In1997,ParerrevealeddetailsofthefundingoftheBureau’sresearchtotheSenate.AnumberoforganisationseachpaidA$50,000perannumfortheprivilegeofsittingonthesteeringcommittee.Theyincluded:

1. AustralianCoalAssociation2. AustralianAluminiumCouncil

3. BHP4. CRA5. BusinessCouncilofAustralia6. ElectricitySupplyAssociationofAustralia7. Exxon8. Mobil9. Texaco

Alltheseorganisationshadstronginterestsinoil‐basedenergyandinthebusinessstatusquo.Threeofthem(Exxon,MobilandTexaco)aretransnationaloilcompanies.Twoofthem(ExxonandMobil)areamongtheworld’sbiggestindustrialcorporations.(8)Bytheirconstitutions,allthreemustactintheinterestsoftheirshareholdersratherthanintheinterestsofAustralia.Ethicalandinter‐disciplinaryconflictbecameapparenttoProfessorAlanPowellofMonashUniversity,whohadbeenaskedbytheBureautoprovideindependentadvice.On16July1997heresignedfromhisadvisoryposition,citingprivatesectorfundingasposingmajorrisksfortheintegrityandefficacywithwhichmodellingworkcanbedone.Hewrotethattheproblemwasmadeseverewhen“governmentseekstouseresultsfromasemi‐secretproprietarymodelasabasisforjustifyingitspolicyposition.”ThefundingarrangementsofthesteeringcommitteewereinvestigatedbytheAustralianOmbudsmanlatein1997.HefoundthatbylimitingmembershipofthecommitteetoorganisationswillingtopayA$50,000fortheprivilege,theBureauhadfailedtoprotectitselffromallegationsofundueinfluencebyvestedinterests.(15)

Overall,thehandlingofclimatechangeissuesinboththeUSandAustraliahasbeenadisaster.Governmentsoftwooftheworld’sleadingdemocracieshavemadeasimilarmistake.Theyhavesoughttomixspecialistsinphysicsandeconomicstogetherandproduceacakeby“agreement”.Theyfailed,astheywereboundtodo.Oilandwaterreallydon’tmix.Apartfromthatissue,thereisanotherandmorefundamentalproblem.

Climatechangeisonlyonesideofanintellectualcoin.Theothersideistherun‐downofoil,afarmorepracticalissue,andonewhichmighthavehelpedtosolvethephysicist‐economistdilemma.Theacademicsquabblesgivenmediaandcommercialpublicitydonotopenupalternativesforexamination.Ifoildisappears,humaningenuitymaywellfindanotherwayofsolvingtheenergyproblem,andevenasustainableone.Biomassisoneoptionnothandledbythephysicist/economistwrangle.Ithasmanyaspectsnoteventouchedoninthepoliticalarenastodate.TheversiontriedoutbyGeorgeBush(usingfoodtoyieldliquidenergy)isaboutasstupidasitispossibletoimagine.Biomass,however,hasavastnumberofpossibleapplicationstotheenergyproblem.Onlysomeofthemhavenegativeconsequencessuchasthediminutionoftheglobalfoodsupply.

Globalisation

ThetragedyoftheAmericanandAustralianeventsisthattheytendtoputanendtotheexplorationandexploitationofwell‐foundedbiomasssourcesofrawmaterialfortheproductionofsustainableliquidfuel.Theyhavedonemagetoenterpriseandexploration.Theymayberesponsibleforafailuretocarryoutcriticalresearchandinvestmentandcostthehumanspeciessomebillionsoffaminedeaths.Thepeopleresponsibleforsuchadisastermustgodowninhistoryasthemostprominentexamplesofthefailureofleadershipinthe21stcentury.

Withintheuniverseofdiscoursethatisclimatechange,NZisnotaplayer.Ifanything,itisanobserverfromthesidelines.Politically,itismerelyanill‐informedobserver.Asasovereignstate,withalowpopulationdensityandlargeareasofbothfertilehillcountryandlowcountrythataresuitableandeffectiveforfoodproduction,NZcouldcontributesubstantiallytothecauseandeffectsideofadaptationtoclimatechange.ItknowswheretolookforlandthatsitsneatlywithinthebasicFPAprinciples.Itknowsthatthecriticalareaissome3.4millionhectares.Thathasalreadybeenidentified.Ithaslegislatorspossessingsomefamiliaritywiththeprinciples(ifnotthepractice)ofsustainableresources.Itsforestryconsultantsknowagreatdealaboutforestmanagementasatooltoassistinthecreationandmanagementofforestbiomassasasourceofenergyfortransportpurposes.Ithasareasonablesupplyofcompetentforestscientists.Giventhisheadstart,theinabilityofgovernmenttotryforworldleadershipintheadaptationandneweconomicstakeslookslikeinexcusablenegligence.TheinterestofforestryconsultantsintheEmissionsTradingSchemedoesnothingforanyprofessionalclaimstorespectforprofessionalintegritythattheirInstitutemayseek.Alltold,advocatesofdemocracy(otherthanthoseinGermany(ofallplaces!)havenothingtoboastaboutwhentheoilsagabecomeshistory.Theminingindustrystartedwellinitsclaimtorespectability.Itdidrelativelylittledamageinitsextractionprocesses.Byconfiningattentiontocheapoil,itbuiltupahugeclienteleandahugepopulationofdependentusers.Nowitfacesoblivionasitadvancestowardsextinctionoftheresource.Thatitresolutelyrefusestobowtoitsownextinctioncanmeanonlyonething.Theindustryisdeterminedtocontinuewithoiluntilithasexhaustedtheglobalresourceofboundoil.Freeoilhastraditionallybeentheonlyminedsourceoffeedstockformobilefuels.Ithasbeenaccessibleonlandandbeneathseas.Ithasbeensimpletomine.

BoundoilhasbeenfoundinCanada(theAthabascatarsands),theUS(theColoradaoilshales),Venezuelaandelsewhere.Boundoilnecessarilyinvolvesenvironmentaldamagein

extractionandindustrialworkinfreeingoilfromitsearthencontainers.Additionalmining,environmentalandprocessingcostsmeanthatitcanonlybesoldatarelativelyhighprice.Itcannolongerberegardedas“cheap”.

Thesamecommentsapplytomethanehydrates.Theywillbedifficulttomineandunsustainable.Theonlyexcusefortheirextractionisthedangerposedbynon‐extraction.Givensteadyglobalwarmingbroughtaboutbytheuseofpetroleumoil,the2*Cofsafetyleftforoceanicstability,whencoupledwiththelargescientificignoranceofhydrates,lookslikeahighlydangerousmarginofsecurityforhumansurvival.Thespontaneousreleaseofmethanetotheatmosphereislikelytoincreaseglobalwarmingatamuchhigherrateandcommencefeedbackwarmingatacatastrophicandirreversiblelevel.Thethreatissuchthatitcompelsattentionbeinggiventotheearlyminingofhydratesandtheirliquefactionforfuelasapreventativemeasure.Here,however,wemeetasnag.

Methanehydratesconstituteagas(methane)trappedinicewater.Theicemayexistbeneathlandorbeneathlake,riverorsea.Atthistime,nobodyhassucceededinminingthehydratescommercially.InNZ,averylargedepositofhydratesexistsalongtheHikurangimargin,stretchingfromGisbornedowntheeasternflankoftheNorthIslandtothevicinityofCookStrait.Ifamethodofextractingthehydratescouldbedevised,theycouldbebroughtashoreandthenmeltedtoyieldnaturalgas,ormethane,needingonlycatalyticliquefactiontoproducemethanol.ThelegalproblemisthattheCrown,bylaw,ownsallhydrocarbonsfoundinland,whetherornotthelandiscoveredbywater.Further,“allpetroleum,gold,silver,anduraniumexistinginitsnaturalconditioninland….shallbethepropertyoftheCrown”.(CrownMineralsAct1991,sec.10.)UnderthesameAct,“petroleum”meansanynaturaloccurringhydrocarbon(otherthancoal)whetherinagaseous,liquidorsolidstateoranynaturaloccurringmixtureofoneormorehydrocarbons(otherthancoal)whetherinagaseous,liquidorsolidstate.”(Section2)TheMinisterofEnergyhaspowertoissueMineralsProgrammes“toestablishpolicies,proceduresandprovisionstobeappliedinrespectofthemanagementofanyCrownownedmineralthatislikelytobethesubjectofanapplicationforapermit…andinparticular,policies,proceduresandprovisionswhichprovidefor–

(a) TheefficientallocationofrightsinrespectofCrownownedminerals;and(b) TheobtainingbytheCrownofafairfinancialreturnfromitsminerals.”

(Section12)

Inthelightoftheseprovisions,theMinisterhasadutytoexercisehispowerstoprotecttheinterestsofthepeopleofNZ.Thosesamepeoplearevitallyinterestedinsecuringaccesstocheapenergy.Methanehydratesarepotentiallyamajorsourceofenergy.ThehighertheMinisterraisesthefinancialreturnbar,thegreaterwillbethecostofenergytothesamepopulation,includinginparticularthecostoftransportfuel.Ineffect,theMinisterofEnergyhasthepowertoincreasetaxationatanytimeandathiswhim.TheabsurdityofthissituationhasnotyetdawnedonGovernment.

TheabilityofParliamenttotieGovernmentinknotsisseenintheClimateChangeResponseAct,2002.ThepurposeofthatActistoenableNZtomeetitsinternationalobligationsundertheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangemadeatNewYorkonthe9thMay1992andtheKyotoProtocoltheretomadeonthe11thDecember1997.TheultimateobjectiveoftheConventionwastoachieve“stabilizationofgreenhousegasconcentrationsintheatmosphereatalevelthatwouldpreventdangerousanthropogenicinterferencewiththeclimatesystem.”(Article2).TheauthorswerereferringtoburningpetrolinICEvehicles,withconsequentialreleaseofCO2.ThereversesideoftheburningcoinisthefactthatdepositsofpetroleumoilinoronplanetEartharefiniteinamount.Theavailablescientificevidencesuggeststhatdepletionisexpectedbymid‐century,butrun‐downtothepointofunaffordablepriceswilloccurby2028‐2030.ItneveroccurredtotheUNnegotiatorstofundresearchtopinpointsubstitutesandtofindawaytoestablishprogrammesforreplacement.Theysimplyturnedtotheonesymbolsystemtheyunderstood(regulations)anddraftedawishlist.Itconstitutedafundamentalerror.Substituteslikebiomassdoexist.Theytaketimetosortoutandtoimplement.TheUNcouldnotstomachthiseffort,andchosetoattempttheirtriedandtestedtool‐regulation.Apity.Atissuewerethelivesofsome3.6billionpeople–thepopulationbulgebroughtaboutbyglobaleffortstoclimbaboardthepetrolgravytrain.FindingarecipeforhydrogenandfuelcellstoreplacecarbonandICEswouldnothavebeendifficultwhenbroodingabouthydrocarbonsandtheiruseinnewandlessharmfulrecipes.

Foritspart,NZhasnotsuccumbedtotheblandishmentsofoilcompanieswithbottomlesspurses.Itsimplyturnedtothe“wisdom”oftheUNandadoptedaone‐sidedviewoftheenergycoin.Itignoredthepracticalsideofthecoin:theissueofsustainableenergy.ItfollowedtheUN’stripintofantasy.ItsGovernmentignoredtherealitythattruckscartfood.Theyneedfueltomakethathappen.FuelisthecentralissueoftheNZeconomy,becausethatiswherewearevulnerabletotheploysoftheoilcompanies.Theirrelevanceofwordsinplaceofknowhowwillcometoattentionwhentheinsupportableglobalpopulationstartstodieoffinlargenumbersinabout20years’time.ThelunacyofaUNrumpandoftheNZParliamentwillthenbecomeapparent.

WhatstartedtheUNslideintoirrelevancewastheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeadoptedinNewYorkonthe9thMay1992.Itwasacceptedby40nationstatesplustheEuropeanEconomicCommunity.Using2008statistics,thecombinedpopulationofthestatesamountedtoamere9.7%oftheglobalpopulation.ThegeographicareasnotrepresentedbysignatoriescomprisedtheislandsoftheCaribbean,CentralAmerica,SouthAmerica,Africa,theoil‐producingcountriesoftheMiddleEast,andthewholeofAsiaexceptEasternRussiaandJapan.TheirlackofinterestintheconventionhadnoinfluenceonNewZealandlegislators.Thefactthatoil‐basedenergyproppeduptheglobaleconomy,anditsimplicationsforsurvival,by‐passedtheirdeliberations.Bluntly,weinNZgetthelegislatorswedeserve.Weareuninterestedinwhatpropsupoureconomy,norinitsdisappearance.Theresultisthatweinhabitacountrywithavulnerableeconomy,apronenesstonatural

disasters,andhugeeconomicpotentialinthepost‐oilerawhichweignore.Itisnotpleasanttoreflectthatwegetthelegislatorswedeserve.

Whereshouldwebegoing?Wehaveseenthattheoiltotransportfuelsscenario(A)willsimplydiefromoveruse.Itdoeshaveanobviousalternative:woodtofuelcells(B).ScenarioAhasmarketsupport.Scenario(B)doesnot‐yet.ScenarioAisthefossilfuelway,unsustainableandpoweredbyexplosion.ScenarioBisquiet,sustainableandpoweredbyleafcaptureofsolarenergyandelectricity.Vehiclesusingitdonotsendcarbonintotheatmosphere.Unwantedcarbonduringprocessingcanbeabsorbedbyexistingandnewlyplantedforestsorsequesteredintoearthstoragefromtheprocessingplant.Obviously,scenarioBisthepathwayofchoice,butwhenshoulditbeadopted?Thedo‐nothingpoliticianswouldoptforscenarioA.Beforeweenthuseattheirwisdom,somerecentresearchdeservesmention.AteamofAmericanresearchers,allgeologistsorclimatescientists,visitedSpitsbergen,alargeislandinNorway’sSvalbardarchipelago,ArcticOcean,in2007.TheretheywerejoinedbyotherscientistsfromEngland,NorwayandtheNetherlands.TheywereinterestedinthePaleoceneEoceneThermalMaximum(PETM)period,whichlastedasauniqueperiodforafewthousandyearssome56millionyearsago,andwasaccompaniedbyplanetaryfever.Overitsexistence,temperaturesrosesome5*C,forcingplantsandanimalstomigrate,adaptordie.WhatcausedPETMwasamassiveinjectionofheat‐trappinggreenhousegasesakintotheemissionsfromvehiclestoday.Thescientistsintendedtodrillthroughrockbeneathanerodedplateauforsamplesofsedimentliftedfrombeneaththeseabytectonicforces.Theystruckitlucky.Theyranacrossageologistemployedbyaminingcompanywho,yearspreviously,hadkeptearthsamplesofdrilledmaterialremovedfromthetargetareaandstoredin1.5metreboxes.Itwasexactlywhattheresearchersneeded.

Fromtracesoforganicmaterialtheywereabletobuildupapictureofglobalwarmingduringwhathadtraditionallybeenregardedasthemostsignificantperiodofwarmingintheearth’s“history”.Incomparing3separatesamplesoftemperaturewarmingfromtheCretaceous,PETMandmodernperiods,theyfoundthatratesofwarmingvariedmarkedly.(SeeTable1.)

Table1

WarmClimatePeriods

PeriodCretaceousPETMModern

Duration145.5to65.5million56myBP18thto21stcenturies

yearsbeforepresent

(myBP)

Warmingperiod145.5to140.2myBP20,000y1750onwards

=5.3my

Warmingrate0.000025*C/100y0.025*C/100y1to4*C/100y

(Key:*C=degreesCelsius)(23andothers)

FromTable1itisclearthat,asthewarmingperiodsdecreaseovertimefrommillionstothousandstohundredsofyears,thewarmingratesincrease.Thishasasignificanteffectonadaptationoflifeforms:themorerapidtherate,themoredangerousitistosuccessfuladaptation.TheCretaceouswasaperiodwhentheseaswerepopulatedwithmarinereptiles,ammonitesandrudists.Thelandwaspopulatedbydinosaurs.Duringthesameperiod,newgroupsofmammalsandbirdsaswellasfloweringplantsappeared.Wikipediareports:“TheCretaceousendedwithoneofthelargestmassextinctionsinEarthhistory,theK‐Textinction,whenmanyspecies,includingnon‐aviandinosaurs,pterosaurs,andlargemarinereptiles,disappeared.”PETMwasharshonlifeforms.Someperished;others,bygeneticmodification,becamesmaller.Thespeedofchangewassignificantforadaptation:thefaster,theharder.WhiletheCretaceouschangestookplaceovermillionsofyears,PETMlastedforthousandsofyearsandmodernisexpectedtolastfordecades,possiblyrisingtohundredsofyears.SurvivinglivingcreaturesadaptedeasilytoCretaceouswarming,buthaddifficultyduringPETM.Someseafloorlifebecameextinctbutmostlifeonlandeitheradaptedormigrated.Theexpectedliferesponsestotherelativelyrapidmodernwarmingarethepolewardmovementofmanyspecies;habitatloss;coralbleaching;andextinctions.Overall,itappearsthatdifferencesincapacitytoadaptamongspecies,includinglearningcapacity,playanimportantroleindeterminingwhichspeciessurviveandwhichspeciesdonotinanyperiodofwarming,whetherinducedbynatureorbyman.(23)

Modernthreatsassociatedwithwarmingareclearlymoreseriousthanthoseassociatedwithearlierclimaticchanges.Theinferenceisthatpersistencewithfossilfuelsformotivepowermaybeaformofsuicideforthehumanspecies.Changingfromoil‐to‐ICEpowertowood‐to‐fuelcellpowerbecomesnotjustsomethingforcedonusbymobility;itbecomesanissueofhumansurvival.Thekeynotetosurvivalhasjustchanged.Thesoonerwestartproducingsustainablefuel,thesoonerweprovideanimpetusandtheenvironmentneededtoimproveitstechnologyandtoaddressthethornyissueofrisingtransportandfoodcosts.Thisissuemaywellbecomethekeytofamine’ssuccessinreducinghumannumberstoaveryfewbillions,startingthiscentury.

AnimmediateswitchtoscenarioBabovehas2keyproblems:

a) Itinvolvesaswitchtohighcostratherthanlowcostfuel;b) Itallowsnotimeforthecreationofdedicatedtreecropsforfeedstock.

BothproblemscouldbehandledinNZbygovernmentsubsidyandimmediatesmallscaleproductionbasedona)wastewood,oldtyres,andwaterweedsasfeedstocks,andb)apilotplantforprocessing,possiblyatAuckland.

Anybroad‐basedswitchtohighcostfuelsmustbeaccompaniedbybasiceconomicchangesandbyahostofotherchangesthatcannotbeaccuratelypredicted.Thereisapricedemandedbytheenvironmentforshiftingprimaryallegiancefromunsustainableeconomicstosustainablesurvival:thedeathsofimpoverishedoil‐to‐foodconsumers.Amongtheobviousmechanismsmustbethedirectcostsoftravelandtransport.Theymustrise.Oftheindirectcosts,themostcertainincreaseattachestofoodpricesthroughouttheworld.ThiscouldwellhaveanegativeeffectonNZexports.Ontheotherhand,NZmaybeabletodevelopanexportbusinessinenergy.CountriessuchasIndonesia,committedtodeforestation,maycontinuetotreatforestsasminingareasanddriftintoextremepoverty.Others,ableandwillingtoconverttoplantationforestsdedicatedtoenergy,arelikelytoprosper.Inanycase,voluntary,largescalemovementsofpeoplearelikelytodiminish,withconsequentialdamagetotourismandconventions.Effectivegatheringsofpeopleforpoliticalpurposesarelikelytodecreaseinnumber.Faminewillreappear,butonanunknownscale,dependingonhoweffectivelytheworldhandlesdepletionofoil.Ontheglobalpoliticalscene,globalizationislikelytodeclineinimportanceandnationalpoliticalissuestorise.TheUNmaydeveloparolesimilartothatofthepre‐warLeagueofNations.ItshandlingoftheETSissue,includingitslogicondistinguishingbetweendevelopedanddevelopingstates,isunlikelytoassistinthedevelopmentofinternationalmana.

Allinall,untilnationstatesdeveloptheirownpositionsonsustainableenergyinanoil‐freeworld,globalisationmusttakeabackseatineconomics.

Organisation

NZisacountrywitharelativelysmallpopulation–comparablewiththepopulationofSydney(4millionodd).Asanation,itcanactwithreasonablecompetencebutrequirescareinhandlingtasksneedingscaleforeffectiveness.Intacklingthetransitionfromdependenceonasinglemineral(oil)todependenceofvariousformsofbiomass,itsfirstprioritymustbethepublicwelfare.Inthisarea,wehavesomehistoricalexperiencetoguideus–mostofitnegative.

NewZealand’srecordofpreservingthenationalinterestincorporateaffairsisappalling.Domesticcompanieshavefallenlikeninepinstotakeoverraids.Ourshareholdersaresuckersforanyofferthatlooksgoodinpurelydollarterms.Ontheotherhand,ourrecordwithco‐operativesisfairlygood.DairyfarmershaveshownthatinFonterratheypossessapowerful,reliabletoolinhandlingsalesinaninternationalcontext.IffarmersonEPcountryelecttoestablishenergyandqualitytimberplantationsonthatland,theywouldmakeupacommoninterestgroupthatcouldformaneffectiveco‐operative.AppropriateregulatorylegislationalreadyexistsintheformoftheCo‐operativeForestryCompaniesAct1978.EnablinglegislationthatcanbeadaptedforthepartialuseoffarmlandforwoodlotsexistsintheformoftheForestryRightsRegistrationAct1983.

Oneoftheactivitiesofanendangeredsoilco‐operativeislikelytobetheestablishmentofacompanytoprocessbiomassintoliquidfuel.AdescriptivenameforsuchacompanyisForestFuelsLimited.Thatnameisavailableforsuchaproject.FoundationshareholderscouldincludeinvestmentfundsheldbyspecialinterestgroupssuchasthatformedtohandlegovernmentcompensationforthelossofWestCoastforestsandsomeMaoritrusts.Governmentshouldbeincludedtoensurethatthepublicinterestisrepresented.Givenastrongfoundationoffundscommittedtonationalinterests,publicparticipationinaminorityposition(including,inparticular,fueldistributors)shouldbeencouraged.Theprimarygroupofshareholders,however,mustbethegrowerco‐operative.

Inessence,theenergyproblemconfrontingNZinvolvesthewholepopulation.Wearealldependentforsurvivalonfoodandshelter,andbotharedependentuponanefficienttransportservice.Withashiftofthesourceoftransportfuelfromminingtogrowing,weconfrontavitallyimportantchangeintheconditionsofsupplyofrawmaterial.Fromaworld‐wide,heterogeneouscollectionofunknownminers,wemovetoawell‐knowngroup

oflocallandowners.Thisshiftdemandsacarefullynegotiatedarrangementbetweenthepeople’srepresentatives(government)andlandowners’representatives(initially,FederatedFarmers).Thefirstandmostdifficultpartofthefueltransitionistoputupthemoneytogettreecropsestablishedonthetargetland.OnlytheGovernmentcandothat‐quickly.Initialfundingshouldberegardedasabridgingloan.Eventually,returnsfromthesaleoffuelshouldbeusedtorepaytheloan,andonlythenshouldnetreturnsbeusedforshareholderdividends.

Loanconditionsareamatterofcarefulnegotiationinasettingofemergencylackingprecedent.Fromtheperspectiveoftaxpayers,theyareallvitallyinterestedinthetakeover.Thereisnoreason,however,whytheyshouldlosemoneyputupforvitalbridging.MoneyrepaidcouldbecalculatedonitsvalueatthetimeofrepaymentbytheuseoftheConsumers’PriceIndexandtheloanreducedinmagnitudeaccordingly.Thus,thetaxpayergetstworeturns:hiscapitalinfullandaccesstofuel,transportandcommercewithoutbreak.Induecourse,thesamekindofarrangementcouldbeusedtogetForestFuelsLimitedunderway.

Animplicationofproducinghighqualityspecialtywoodforhouseframingisthatnailingwillnotbeeasy.Itwouldbeadvantageousifitwerenotrequired.Attentionisthereforedrawntonail‐freeconstructionmethods.HousesinAucklandhavebeenconstructedinthisway.SohavethestavechurchesofNorwaythathavestoodforamillennium.Thepracticeofoff‐sitefabricationofdwellingcomponentslendsitselftotheengineeringofframeworkmembersasbuildingcomponentsneedingonlyplacementandglueforconstructionpurposes.

Thedirectorateofthecompanywillneedtobemulti‐skilled.Itwillneedtoestablishcompanypolicyonanumberofdifferentissues,allofcriticalimportancetothecompanyandNZ.Someoftheseissueswillbeofimportancetoboththeco‐operativeandthecompany.Otherswillbeofimportancemainlytothecompany.Somecriticalissuesappeartobe:

a) Thedelivery,timingandconditionofrawmaterialforprocessing;b) Themakeupofrawmaterials;c) Researchinto,andtheidentificationandprocurement,ofrawmaterials;d) Thedryingofrawmaterials;e) Thescopeofprocessingforenergyuse;f) Therefiningofprocessedfuels;g) ThedistributionoffuelsinNZ;h) TheexportoffuelssurplustoNewZealand’srequirements;i) Therelationshipofthecompanytothegovernmentoftheday;j) Lobbyinggovernmentonregulatoryassistance;k) Publicrelations.

Anotheractivityofanendangeredsoilco‐operativewillbethesaleofhighquality,untreatedlumberfromlongtermwoodlots.Forthispurpose,itseemsunnecessarytoestablishaspecialpurposeorganisationunlessmerchantsproveresistanttotheuseofhighqualitylumber.Itisexpectedthattheissuewillnotariseuntilsome30yearsafterplanting.However,thescaleofproductionofsuchlumberanditsimpactonthequalityofbuildingsinNZareexpectedtobesuchthattheco‐operativeshouldbeinapositiontocompetesuccessfullyinthemarketplacewithmerchantsfavouringlowgradelumbertotheirowncommercialdetriment.

Indealingwithlumber,theco‐operativewillneedtotakecarefulnoteofgovernmentpolicy.Atpresent,governmentisunwillingtoprotectspecialtylumberagainstoverseascompetition,regardlessofwhetherthecompetitionemanatesfromlegalorillegalloggingofnaturalforests.Thatpolicyputsanintolerablehandicapinthewayoffarmproduction,andreducesthecapacityoffarmerstomakesensibleandprofitableuseoftheirland.Itthusactsagainstsoilconservationinhighcountry–aninconsistentandsurprisingpolicyforNZgovernments.

Thelogicaladministrativeandresearchcentrefortheproposedco‐operativeandprocessingcompanyisatAuckland.TheUniversityofAucklandhasthequalifiedstafftohandleavarietyofresearchneeds.Itmakessensetositeapilotplantinthatcity.Acentrethereiswellplacedtomakeuseoffreightmovementsbyair,landandsea.Thecityhastheresourcestohandleavarietyofmeetingsandconferencesinavarietyofsettings.Apilotplanttherecouldserveasatestofefficientmanufacturingandasanauxiliaryplantwhenmethodshavebeencheckedandperfected.Gisborneistheobvioussiteforamajorproductionfacility.Itcouldbereadilyreachedbylandtransportofrawforestmaterialharvestedfrom40%ofEPlandinNZ.ItisadjacenttothenorthernreachesofmethanehydratesintheHikurangimargin.Iftheycanbeminedeconomicallyformethane,itwouldbeconvenienttolandthegasclosetotheplantandfeeditdirectlyintoitsliquefactionsection.

Summation

Forthousandsofyears,humanshavedreamedoffindingawaytoescapetheRuleofFamine.Inthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury,theythoughtthattheyhadfoundthesecret.Storedsolarenergyintheformofpetroleumoilwastheelixir.Forafewgenerations,thedreamseemedtohavecometrue.Populationnumbersclimbedasneverbefore.Inventionblossomedashumansplayedwiththenewtoy.Theshapeofcivilisationandeverydaytechnologychanged.Famineseemedtohavelostitsgrip.However,therealcostoffuelclimbedsteadilyandremorselesslyaspopulationnumbersbloomedandoilsuppliesremainedsteady.Predictionsofoildepletionincreasedinvolumeandnumber.Thepredicteddateforfinalexhaustiondroppedfromthe2070stothe2040s.TheAgeofOilseemeddestinedtolastlessthanacenturyandtoterminateinapainful,monsterfamine,wipingoutbillionsofpeople.Adefencescreencouldbeattempted,butsuccessisnotassured.Totheirlastingshame,politicianssimplylookedtheotherway,andcontinuetodoso.Evenbasicresearchhasbeenby‐passed.

Wenowliveinthe21stcentury–crunchtime.Generationshavenowgrownupinaworldwherepoweredvehiclesarejustpartoftheenvironment.Thegasolineanddieselthatpowerthemareofinterestonlywhenthetankrunsdownanddemandsreplenishment.Vehiclesareofpassinginterest,butonlyasunitsintrafficcongestionandaspartsofabrandandageclass.Habituationhasconsignedbothvehiclesandfueltothebackroomofconsciousnessandleftnoroomforthehandlingoftherun‐downanddisappearanceofoil.Thatisnotperceivedasadisaster.Naturaldisastersaresomethingtowhichhumansmustadapt.However,theyrelatetoincidentssuchasplagues,fires,earthquakes,volcaniceruptions,tidalwavesandfloods.Theydonotcoverman‐madedisasters.Inotherwords,perceptionactsagainstsurvivalinaworldbereftofoneoflife’sprops.

Acriticalfactorinaddressingtheproblemofsupplyingasubstitutefordisappearingoilsuppliesisscale.NZusesabout6750millionlitresofpetroleumproductsperannum.Thatrequiresagreatdealofreplacement.Itwipesoutmost“goodideas”forsubstitutes.Tobeuseful,anysubstitutemustfittwolimitingfactors:availablelandandexistingknowhow.Oftheseissues,themostdifficulttodealwithislanduse.

AfirstclassSOEreportonastrategytointroduceanationalprogrammeofhighcountryafforestationforenergypurposesin2007hasbeenignored.Timehasgonebywithvirtually

nothingtoshowforit.Wenowhaveamere19yearswithinwhichtocarryoutbasicresearchandtoimplementsomethingliketheScionprogramme.Whatisnowneededisacrashcourseofplantingtreesonabestguessbasistothemaximumextentpossibleandamenditasresearchfindingscometohand.Paralleltothesestepswillbetheraisingofcapital,thedesignandlocationofaprocessingplantorplants,andtheconstructionoftheplantorplants.WhencoupledwiththeneedtoconvinceParliamentoftheneedandurgencyofthework,NZfacesaseeminglyimpossibletask.

Theconclusionisstark.Nomatterhoweffectiveinterventionmaybe,itcanonlymitigatethedisastrouseffectsoflosingcheapoilasthemainstayoftheeconomiesofnation‐states.Famineonanunprecedentedscalewillreturn.Itwillgarneranenormousdeathtoll.Itsvictimswill,asalways,betheworld’spoor.Wherewillfaminereignsupreme?Thereareanumberofanswers.Thesizesofdomesticfoodproductionanddomesticpopulationdensitywillbethefirstdeterminants.Alsorelevantwillbethecapacityofleadershiptohandlepublicdebt.Itsmagnitudewillattractpublicscrutiny.Leaderswhocannotdisplaycompetenceinitsmanagementunderstresswillfailtoattractnewloans.Thecheapnessofpetroleumoilasapropfornationaleconomieswillneverreturnbecauseenergycomesonlyfromthesun,anditsearthstorecanonlybereplenishedthroughaverylimitednumberofresources,includingthemanagementofforestleaves.Transportwillnecessarilybeexpensivebecausefuelwillbecomeacapital‐intensivecommodity.Onlythosestatesdisplayingmarkedefficiencywillsurvive,letalonedominateworldaffairs.

Tohaveanyhopeofsurvivingtherun‐downofoilunscathed,NZshouldbeinapositiontoprocesssignificantvolumesofbiomassfuelsby2030.IfHubbert’s(19)predictionofoilrun‐downarenotborneoutby2030,thatyearstillretainsitsimportance.ThemoreNZisabletoproduceDIYfuelsbythattime,thesooneritwillbeabletoreducecarbonemissionsfromoilfeedstocks.Nineteenyearsremainsafixedtimeconstraintunderanyscenario.Withinthatperiod,anactionplanforaNewZealandDIYschemetoyieldtransportfuelswillneedtobeoperating.Someofitscriticalcomponentsmustbe:

• DiscussionsbetweentheGovernmentandFederatedFarmerswillbeneededtoensurethatlandownersarewillingtoplantEPlandinshorttermandlongtermtreespeciesandthatGovernmentiswillingtofundsuchplantingsatanagreedlevel;

• Governmentshouldestablishapilotplantcapableofprocessingwoodwaste,usedtyresandwaterweedsustainablyintomethanolforresearchanduse;

• NurseriesandforestryconsultantswillneedtobebriefedandbeabletohandlebiomassplantingatupdatedScionlevels;

• Aco‐operativeplanters’companyneedstobeputinplace;• Loggerswillrequiretobebriefedinordertobeabletohandleharvestingintime;• Water‐basedandland‐basedtransportfirmsneedtobebriefedinadvanceof

decisionsonprocessing;

• Theeconomicsofland‐versuswater‐basedtransportforprocessinganddistributionneedtobeworkedout;

• AsiteatGisborneshouldbedesignatedastheprimarysiteforaproductionprocessingplantcapableofconvertingwoodandwastesintomethanol;

• Localbodieswillneedtobebriefedonthelocationofwoodlotestablishments,processingplantsandtransporttraffic;

• ResearchintotheengineeringofminingmethanehydratesintheHikurangimarginforon‐shoreliquidfuelprocessingshouldbecarriedout;

• Thedesignofprocessingplant(s)shouldbecompletedandapprovedbyconcernedlocalbodies;

• Aprocessingcompanyneedstobeincorporated(say,ForestFuelsLimited,orFFL);• FFLshouldbestructuredsothatthemajorityofvotingsharesareheldbytheGrower

Co‐operativeandprocessingplant(s)areownedbyFFL;• ExtraneouscapitalforFFLwillneedtobefoundandunderitsArticlesofAssociation

attractdividendsattherateenjoyedbytheholderofvotingshares;• ThedominantpositionoftheGrowerCo‐operativeinFFLandthedividendrights

attachingtoextraneoussharesshouldbeentrenchedbyActofParliament;• Processingplant(s)willneedtobeconstructedintimefortheinitialtakeoverof

biomassfuels;• Apublicrelationsplanmustbeimplementedtoinformthepublicofrelevant

informationonchangingpatternsoftransport.

Explosivepowerrepresentedman’shabitoftakingwhateverheneededfromhisenvironment.Ifitwasenvironmentfriendly,thathappenedsolelybyaccident.Electricpowerfrommethanolisessentiallyenvironmentfriendlybutcapitalintensive.Itscorollarythattheendpriceofmotivepowermustincreasehasitscounterpart–increasedwealthinachangedeconomicstructure.Theincreasedcostsofplantingtrees,managingsteepsites,transportingrawmaterials,processingrawmaterialanddistributingandsellingfinishedmethanolrepresent:

a) Incomeinthehandsofrecipients,b) Newproductsinthemarketplace,c) Newopportunitiestodeveloptheproductionofmethanol‐baseproducts,including

newproducts,d) Safermotorvehiclesthroughreducedriskoffire;e) AnexpandedindustrialbaseforNZ;f) PotentialfornewindustriesinNZ;g) Asustainablebaseforthecreationofwealth;h) AnexpandedtaxbaseforGovernment.

Methanolisanalcohol.Itispoisonousandcanleadtoblindnessanddeathifingestedinquantity.Forthisreason,itisnotadrugofpotentialaddiction.Itisworthnotingthat

workingwith,ratherthanagainst,theenvironmentcanleadtoincreasedwealthandnoclearriskofdeatharisingfromalcoholicexcess.

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