f****ing estimates

f***ing estimates

procrastination

planning fallacies

gsm paradox

who to blame

and what to do??

1.what’s the problem?

Denver Intl. Airport

Denver Intl. Airport

$2 billion more expensive16 months later

Eurofighter Typhoon

Eurofighter Typhoon

Spent: $19 billion.$7 billion.54 months later…

Sydney Opera House

Sydney Opera House

Spent: $102 million.

$7

million.

10 years later…

Vicious Cycle in IT

BUSINESS WANTS A LOT

WE GIVE UNREALISTIC ESTIMATES

WE FAIL TO DELIVER

BUSINESS STARTS TO PRESS

IT BECOMES EVEN HARDER TO

DELIVER

Will they finish in time?

Let’s run an experiment!

A simple task

+ = $1,10

The bat costs $1,00 more than the ball.How much does the ball cost?

Planning Fallacy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy

Planning Fallacy

optimism bias

wishful thinking

Student were asked to

50%

75%

99%

assign probabilities of completion time

1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec

what would you think?

50%

75%

99%

14% 19% 45%

real completion rate

1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec

Estimating time in real life

Planning Fallacy

wishful thinking

procrastination

optimism bias

student’s syndrome

Planning Fallacy

wishful thinking optimism bias

student syndrome

procrastination

perfectionism

“Anything less than perfect is unacceptable”

“Work takes as much time as you have”

Parkinson’s Law

Planning Fallacy

wishful thinkingoptimism bias

student syndrome

procrastination

perfectionism

gps paradox

Krivitsky’s ZapadLaw:

To arrive sooner – you need to drive much

faster.

To be later – you don’t need to do

anything.

Planning Fallacy

wishful thinking optimism bias

student syndrome procrastination

perfectionism

gps paradox

delay propagation

E. Goldratt

Delays get accumulated.

Early completions

get lost.

Planning Fallacy

wishful thinking optimism bias

student syndrome procrastination

perfectionism

gps paradox

delay propagation

F***

Will they finish in time?

HIGH CHANCES THEY

WON’T

Will they finish in time?

Scientists joke

Holfstandter’s law:

It always takes longer than you expect, even

when you take into account

Holfstandter’s law.

Last manager’s bullet

time

4x

3x

2x

1.5x

Last manager’s bullet

time

4x

3x

2x

1.5x

Cone of Uncertainty by Barry Boehm

Last manager’s bullet

Commitment

CommitmentCommitment

Commitment

Commitment

Commitment

Commitment

Commitment

CommitmentCommitment

GUESTIMATES

2.what to do?

1. CREATE SENCE OF URGENCY

2. NEVER ESTIMATE ALONE

3. ESTIMATE IN SIZE UNITS

4. MEASURE VELOCITY

5. DERIVE TIME = SCOPE/SPEED

6. INVOLVE CUSTOMERS

7. INCREMENTALLY BUILD

ONE MORE TIME

1. Create …2. Never …3. … size …4. Measure …5. … = … /…6. …. customers7. Incrementally …

krivitsky@scrumguides.com