fertility decline over the past 35 years: what have we learned?
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Fertility Decline over the Past 35 Fertility Decline over the Past 35 years: What Have We Learned?years: What Have We Learned?
Shareen JoshiShareen JoshiGeorgetown University Georgetown University
Rachel Nugent Rachel Nugent Center for Global DevelopmentCenter for Global Development
April, 2010 April, 2010
Since 1970, fertility rates have Since 1970, fertility rates have fallen everywherefallen everywhere
TFR > 8 TFR>6 TFR>4.5 TFR<3.5
Number of countries, 1970 4 84 122 54
Number of countries, 2005 0 12 39 131
Note: Analysis is based on a sample of 188 countries for whom fertility data is available in 1970 and 2005. We also exclude from our sample, all those countries for whom data on TFRs is missing in 1970.
Source: World Development Indicators Online, 2009.
There are two major groups of There are two major groups of countries…countries…
Fertility Trends
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
YR
19
70
YR
19
72
YR
19
74
YR
19
76
YR
19
78
YR
19
80
YR
19
82
YR
19
84
YR
19
86
YR
19
88
YR
19
90
YR
19
92
YR
19
94
YR
19
96
YR
19
98
YR
20
00
YR
20
02
YR
20
04
YR
20
06
Years
Fe
rtili
tiy
Ra
tes
High-Low Countries
High-High Countries
Source: World Development Indicators, 2009
One group has experienced a One group has experienced a dramatic fall in fertilitydramatic fall in fertility
High-Low Countries
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
YR1
97
0
YR1
97
2
YR1
97
5
YR1
97
7
YR1
98
0
YR1
98
2
YR1
98
5
YR1
98
7
YR1
99
0
YR1
99
2
YR1
99
5
YR1
99
7
YR2
00
0
YR2
00
2
YR2
00
5
YR2
00
6
Year
Ferti
lity
Rat
e
Algeria
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Belize
Bhutan
Botswana
Brunei Darrussalam
Dominica
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
India
Indonesia
Iran Kuwait
Krygzic Republic
Libya
Maldives
Mexico
Mongolia
Morocco
Myanmar
Nicaragua
Peru
Qatar
South Africa
St. Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Tunisia
Turkey
Turkmenistan
United Arab Emirates
Uzbekistan
Vietnam
Source: World Development Indicators, 2009
The other has had much less The other has had much less fertility declinefertility decline
High-High Countries
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
YR19
70
YR19
72
YR19
75
YR19
77
YR19
80
YR19
82
YR19
85
YR19
87
YR19
90
YR19
92
YR19
95
YR19
97
YR20
00
YR20
02
YR20
05
YR20
06
Year
Ferti
lity
Rate
AngolaBeninBurkina Faso
BurundiCameroonCentral African RepublicChadCongo
Cote D'IvoireEquitorial GunieaEritreaEthiopia Gambia
Guinea BissauKenyaLiberiaMadagascarMalawai
MaliMauritianaMozambiqueNiger
NigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomalia
TanzaniaTimor LesteTogoUgandaWest Bank/Gaza
YemenZambia
Source: World Development Indicators, 2009
Most of these are in Sub-Saharan Most of these are in Sub-Saharan AfricaAfrica
Source: World Development Indicators, 2009
24
68
TF
R
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Sub-Saharan Africa South AsiaMiddle East & North Africa Latin America & CaribbeanEast Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia
Drivers of fertility decline in HL Drivers of fertility decline in HL countriescountries
• Increases in income • Expansion of education (particularly for women) • Decreases in infant and child mortality • Diffusion of information • Urbanization
• Increased use of modern contraceptives • Increases in age at marriage
There is no “perfect” recipe, no critical threshold for any
of these variables
Lets look at the income variableLets look at the income variable
The relationship between fertility and income The relationship between fertility and income has remained negative for a long timehas remained negative for a long time
1970
1990
2005
02
46
TF
R
0 10000 20000 30000
GNI per-capita
But in 1970, HH countries were similar But in 1970, HH countries were similar to HL countries in terms of both fertility to HL countries in terms of both fertility
and income per-capita… and income per-capita…
CARCameroon
Kenya
Malawi
NigerRwanda
Dem. Rep. Congo
Zambia
Brazil
Botswana
China
Gabon
Honduras
India
Iran
Korea
Kuwait
NepalThailand Venezuela
02
46
810
TF
R, 1970
2 4 6 8 10 12
Log of GNI per-capita, 1970
……they diverged significantly in the they diverged significantly in the years that followedyears that followed
CAR Cameroon
EritreaEquatorial Guinea
Kenya
Malawi
Niger
Rwanda
Uganda
Yemen
Dem. Rep. Congo
Zambia
Bangladesh
Brazil
Botswana
China
GabonHonduras
India
Iran
Cambodia
Korea
Kuwait
Nepal
Thailand
Venezuela
02
46
810
TF
R, 2005
2 4 6 8 10 12
Log of GNI per-capita, 2005
An interesting comparison from the most recent data
• There are many examples of HL countries that achieved fertility decline under lower per-capita incomes than many of today’s HH countries
HL countries
GNI per-capita (current US $)
TFR HH countries
GNI per-capita (current US $)
TFR
Bangladesh $440 2.9 Mali $450 6.6Lao PDR $480 3.3 Zambia $500 5.3Nepal $300 3.1 Uganda $290 6.8
Another variable: EducationAnother variable: Education
Madagascar
Yemen
MaliBurundi
Kenya
NigerUganda
Malawi
MoroccoMaldives
BrazilBhutan
IndiaEgypt
Iran24
68
TF
R
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Primary school completion, percent
The variation is even more The variation is even more significant for female educationsignificant for female education
AfghanistanBurundi
Burkina Faso
Kenya Madagascar
Mali
Malawi
Niger
Rwanda
Uganda
Yemen
Brazil
BotswanaIndia
Iran
LibyaMorocco
Oman
24
68
TF
R
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Female gross enrolment rates, percent
Some interesting comparisonsSome interesting comparisons
• All countries with less than 90% gross enrolment rates All countries with less than 90% gross enrolment rates tend to be HL countries tend to be HL countries
• But there is still lots of variation at higher gross But there is still lots of variation at higher gross enrolment rates: enrolment rates:
• Many countries achieved fertility decline with low levels of educationMany countries achieved fertility decline with low levels of education• Bangladesh Bangladesh • Vietnam Vietnam
HH countries
Primary school enrolment
TFR HL countries
Primary school enrolment
TFR
Nigeria 96% 5.5 Lebanon 95% 2.2
Cameroon 108% 4.5 India 114% 2.6
What is the role of policy?What is the role of policy?
Population Policy• Direct policies • Indirect policies
Economic Policies
Health + Education
Policy
Population policies have been shaped Population policies have been shaped by both domestic and international by both domestic and international
trendstrends
International population policy has International population policy has shown several shiftsshown several shifts
1950—1970
1970—1990
1990—Now
For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming
Domestic population policies vary Domestic population policies vary significantlysignificantly
Lessons on what works:
• Strong national leadership
• An evidence-based approach
• A focus on the poorest and most marginalized
For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming
Conclusion: No perfect recipe but lots Conclusion: No perfect recipe but lots of options available to policy-makers! of options available to policy-makers!
Population Policy•Direct policies • Indirect policies
Economic Policies
Health + Education
Policy
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