faculty of environment: martin neruda, tomáš přikryl, jitka fikarová river board povodí ohře:...

Faculty of Environment: Martin Neruda, Tomáš Přikryl, Jitka Fikarová

River Board Povodí Ohře: Lucie Tichá

Belfast, Questor, 9.3.-12.3.2010

ContentMonitoring in Chabařovice and Most lakes

Rehabilitation of Černý potok stream

Rainfall-runoff modelling with Artificial Neural Networks

Chabařovice lakeMeasuring profiles:

Eutrophication reservoir: 3 places:− 1) inside the reservoir - in the other end of the

reservoir− 2) inside the reservoir - around the outlet− 3) outside of the reservoir - below the outlet in the

channel

Chabařovice lake: 1 place – inside the lake in the north – west part

Chabařovice lake – area of interest

Measuring profiles

MethodologyCatch a small fish and plankton with special

netMake a conservation in a small plastic bottle

with a chemicalsIdea is to say which species of fish come to

the lake because of their influence to the fish stock

From the last year: research of plankton species to have a detailed picture about the lake‘s ecosystem

Eutrophication lake - in the other end of the reservoir23. 7. 2009 – fish results: 10 pieces of Scardinius erythrophthalmus + 1 piece of Tinca tinca

Eutrophication reservoir - around the outlet28. 7. 2009 – fish results: 10 pieces of

Scardinius erythrophthalmus26. 10. 2009 – plankton results: Cyclops

vicinus, Moina macrocopa, Ceriodaphnia reciculata – lots of them

Eutrophication lake - below the outlet in the channelNo fish speciesPlenty of the invertebrates (juveniles of insects), many

species of plankton – failed the conservation

Chabařovice lake – inside the lake in NW partAimed only to plankton: 7. 9. 2009 Metacyclops

gracilis, Melosira varicus, cyclops sp. Daphnia magna – many of them

Most lake – new oneProfiles: 2 places1) Inside „Most“ lake2) Small lake above Most lake

Most lake - inside14. 8. 2009 small species of plankton12. 11. 2009 Chydorus sphaericus, Daphnia

magna, Acanthocyclops nanus – many of them

Small lake above the Most lake

5 pieces of Scardinius erythrophthalmus Small species of plankton (algae)

Černý potok streamIn Ore mountains – north from Usti – boarder with

Germany2 phases of rehabilitation:1) 1st August- 31st December 20092) 1st August 2010 – 31st December 2010Organised by Agency for Nature

Conservation and Landscape Protection of the Czech Republic in Ústí nad Labem

Pictures from October 2009:

Information about Rainfall-runoff modellingMain goal: improving flood warning system in

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute For small size river basins Based on several time series of hourly

measured dataFor short time runoff predictions (1-6 hours)

based on runoff and rainfall data

R-R modellingSignificant data for prediction (made by

correlation analysis): runoff data, short time rainfall history, API values

Multilayer perceptronRadial basis function Results made in 6 weeks internship (Petr

Paščenko) within the scope of the project HPC Europa 2 at the EPCC Department of the Edinburgh University

Results Ploučnice RiverMain problem:- overtraining of the network – poor

generalization - small number of extreme events which

makes it difficult for a model to predict the amplitude of the event

Results Experiments with absolute and relative runoff

predictionNeural model shows about 5 % improvement

in terms of efficiency coefficient over linear models

Results Best behavior - Multilayer perceptrons with

one hidden layer trained by back propagation algorithm and predicting relative runoff

Genetically evolved input filter improves the performance of yet another 5 %

Future Experiments in on-line prediction using real-

time data from Smeda River (Jizerské hory mountains) with 6 hours lead time forecast

Following the operational reality we will focus on classification of the runoffs into flood alert levels

Results

The two diagrams show the statistically relevant input variables for the two linear regression models. The red cells variables have 0.001, the violet have 0.01, the blue 0.1 and the white cells stand for less significant inputs.

Thank you for your attention