factors influencing

1. Time Available

• How much (quantity) time does the president have?

– If severe time constraints are involved, the situation is defined as a crisis.

• Possible last minute commutation of a death sentence

Nuclear War: 30 minutes away

Nuclear War in Europe Scenario

Commuting a death sentence

30 month sentence commuted by Pres. Bush after “Scooter” Libby

named a CIA operative

2. Amount of Prior Study and Preparation

• Readiness

The decision to try to send men to the moon would involve this factor. Was the US ready when Kennedy challenged the country to win the space race?

How much is really known about the Iranian Nuclear program? How far along? Who is it a threat to? (defensive war, preemptive war, or proactive war)

M1A Abrams Tank destroyed in Iraq.

Humvee destroyed in Iraq by roadside bomb.

Roadside bomb crater Iraq

"As you know, you go to war with the Army you have. They're not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time."

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld

How much did Kennedy really know about how far the missiles in Cuban were from being ready for launch?

3. Importance of the Issue

• How important is the issue really?

Flag Burning: Is it the deciding factor on who to vote for?

Illegal Immigration: Who wants them and why and who does not want them and why?

Potential nuclear war over Cuba or Iran v. the decision to see Alvin and the Chipmunks

4. Personal Beliefs

• The president’s political ideology as well as any other convictions that influence decision making.– JFK (Liberal, Catholic)– Bush ’43 (Conservative, Protestant)– Carter (Conservative Democrat, Baptist,

supported prayer in school)

5. Prior Experience

• This factor is one of the most important.– Consider President Bush ’41 making

decisions regarding foreign intelligence.– JFK had backed down to the USSR at the Bay

of Pigs, the Vienna Conference, and over the Berlin Wall

• Two terms Representative from Texas.

• Ambassador to the United Nations

• Chief of the U. S. Liaison Office in the People's Republic of China

• Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

• Chairman of the Republican National Committee

6. Style of Decision Making

• How does the president make decisions?

Truman: A loner

Carter: Small Inner Circle

Clinton: Larger Group

7. Formal Rules

• Written rules:– the US Constitution

• Commander-in-chief

– Federal laws• Civil Rights Act of 1965

– Treaties• NATO, SEATO

– Declarations• Monroe Doctrine• Axis-of-Evil

Commander-in-Chief

Civil Rights Act of 1965

8. Informal Rules

• Tradition– Red Mass: Sunday before SCOTUS term

• Protocol– Seating at a state dinner– Press protocol in the White House

• Other unwritten rules that govern behavior of the president (i.e. “chain of command”)

Red Mass

State Dinner

Press Conference

9. Available Resources

• Tangible things that the president has at his disposal.

Truman only had two of the Atomic Bombs. So what do you target?

U2 Spy plane to gather data and how many ships will it take to blockade Cuba?

Available Military Resources

• As of 2003, the United States occupied over 700 installations in over 36 countries worldwide. Some of the largest contingents are:

• Germany 75,603

• Japan (US Forces Japan) 40,045

• South Korea (US Forces Korea) 29,086 Italy 10,449

• United Kingdom 10,331

10. Status Relationships

• People who have face-to-face or easy contact with the president and influence decisions

Nixon and Kissinger

Bush and Blair

Clinton and Blair

11. External Decision Makers

• People who influence the president but never actually communicate with the president– Hostages in Iran influenced Carter’s attempted

rescued.– Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – Starving refugees in Darfur

• Gen. Peter Pace said the United States does not have a specific goal for troop numbers, but rather "off-ramps and on-ramps based on what we have on the ground."

– "The enemy has a vote on this," Gen. Pace said on "Fox News Sunday."

Hostages in Iran influenced Carter’s attempted rescued.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

DARFUR, SUDAN

Gen. Peter Pace said the United States does not have a specific goal for troop numbers, but rather "off-ramps and on-ramps based on what we have on the ground."

"The enemy has a vote on this," Gen. Pace said on "Fox News Sunday."

12. Public Opinion

• The opinion of the populace.

• Both domestic and international

• Public opinion is a tough factor because presidents have so much influence on it, it is sometimes difficult to determine which came first, the decision or public opinion.

Positive Negative

Active

ADAPTIVE: Confident, flexible; create opportunities for action; enjoy the exercise of power & do not take themselves too seriously; power is used as a means to achieve beneficial results.

F. D. Roosevelt, H. Truman, J. F. Kennedy, G. Ford (G. W. Bush 1st term)

COMPULSIVE: power is a means to self-realization; expend great energy on tasks derive little joy; preoccupied with whether failing or succeeding; low self-esteem; inclined to rigidity & are highly driven; problem managing aggression.

W. Wilson, H. Hoover, A. Lincoln, L. B. Johnson, R. Nixon, (J. Kerry, A. Gore, H. Clinton)

Passive

COMPLIANT: superficially optimistic; seek to be loved; easily manipulated; have low self-esteem overcome by an ingratiating personality; react rather than initiate.

W. H. Taft, W. Harding, R. Reagan, W. Clinton

WITHDRAWN: respond to a sense of duty; avoid power; low self-esteem compensated by service to others; respond rather than initiate; avoid conflict and uncertainty; emphasize principles, procedures; an aversion to politicking.

C. Coolidge, D. Eisenhower, G. Washington, (G.H.W. Bush, G. W. Bush 2nd term?)

James David Barber’s The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House.