expert group meeting on conceptualising the asian energy ... · dr. mihai paun network development...
Post on 20-Feb-2020
1 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Challenges of the RES Integration
For the Long Term Development of Electricity Transmission
Infrastructure in Europe
Expert Group Meeting on Conceptualising the Asian
Energy Highway (AEH) ESCAP 3-5 September 2013, Urumqi, China
Dr. Mihai PAUN
Network Development - ENTSO-E
4 September 2013, Urumqi, CHINA
1. Context: ENTSO-E, 10/20/40 year views,
Network Codes
2. The 2012 TYNDP
3. New Infrastructure Priorities Regulation
4. e-Highway2050 Project
5. Conclusion
Key activities set out in Regulation 714/2009 (on cross-border electricity
trade, part of the 3rd IEM Package)
• Deliver network codes binding to all network users (through ‘Comitology’)
• Deliver network plans European / regional view of system needs (“TYNDP”)
• Deliver crucial aspects of market integration (“market coupling”)
• R&D Plan (fully included in EEGI – European Electricity
Grid Initiative, part of the SET Plan)
Through its members deliver the infrastructure to:
• enable markets to function,
• secure energy supply,
• meet climate change objectives through connecting RES
ENTSO-E has significant role in delivering
European energy and climate change objectives
41 TSOs (among whom swissgrid) from 34 countries;
530 million people; 910 GW gen.; 300 000 km transm.
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 2
ENTSO-E Organizational Structure
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 3
WG
2050
ELECTRICITY
HIGHWAYS WG
TEN YEAR NETWORK
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
6 REGIONAL GROUPS FOR
6 REGIONAL NETWORK
DEVELOPMENT PLANS
INSTITUTIONAL RELATIONSHIPS and
Stakeholders involved in the Electricity Value Chain
CURRENT RELATIONSHIPS of the
ENTSO-E WG 2050 ELECTRICITY HIGHWAYS
Climate Parliament www.climateparl.net
Sir Graham Watson MEP ALDE
ITRE Report 2050 Roadmap
Niki Tzavela
ELECTRICITY HIGHWAY SP
E-Highway2050 Project
EIP PCIs
CURRENT RELATIONSHIPS of the
ENTSO-E WG 2050 ELECTRICITY HIGHWAYS
FUTURE COOPERATION
ENTSO-E ELECTRICITY HIGHWAY
CONFERENCE 2014
Work program 2013 – key features
Second formal WP since 3 March 2011, when the Third Package came into application
Building on lessons learned from ENTSO-E’s first formal WP 2011/12 (and feedback from ACER)
Focusing on network code delivery and two areas raised by ACER, enhancing the consultation process and resources:
• Resources for codes development 40% in 2012/2013, compared to 30% in 2011
• 50% increase in Member TSO support
• 51.5 2013 Secretariat FTE incl. 8 secondments, compared to 34.5 FTE at end of 2011
Increase of resources a result from new needs, necessary intensification or prior successes (NCs, TYNDP CBA for PCIs)
• EC, ACER demand some new contributions and support the corresponding costs
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 8
How much work, what for?
840 Member experts/managers
NCs
Netwk plans
EIP/acceptance
IEM/EMFIP
R&D
TSO coord.
51.5 FTE in Secretariat
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 9
Conn’n NCs
Ops NCs
Mkt NCs
TYNDP
Adequacy
CBA EIP
EIP
Acceptance
IEM/EMFIP
Sustainability Security of supply Competitiveness
Reg integr
R&D plans
2050E-Hwy
Coord op’s
Academy
RSCIs
Supports
Relations 2013 work to energy policy goals
Only especially strong relations shown
Just like
transmission
lines, the
ENTSO-E
work areas
usually
address
several
energy
policy
objectives
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 11
Comitology Process
EC Consultation with all stakeholders
Assessment of NC
ACER Recommendation of NC to EC
Period in which ENTSO-E can develop a NC (12 month period)
ENTSO-E Consultation with stakeholders
Request for ENTSO-E to draft a network code
EC According to FWGL from ACER
Development of the FWGL (6 month period)
ACER (ERGEG) Consultation ENTSO, stakeholders, Experts
Request to draft a FWGL
EC Topic identified in art.8 (6) of 714/2009
Network Codes: Process & Timing
Development of
FWGL
Development of
NC
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 12
FWGL = FrameWork GuideLine
ENTSO-E Network Code Overview
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 13
The network codes as one common project required to facilitate
the 3 objectives of the Third Package
Markets
Capacity Allocation & Congestion
Management
Balancing
System Development
Requirements for Generators
Demand Connection
HVDC Connection
System Operations
Operational Security
Forward Capacity Allocation
Operational Planning & Scheduling
Load Frequency Control & Reserves
The intention: promote energy sector harmonisation by creating a set of legally
binding rules applicable across Europe in the form of ‘network codes’
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 15
Drivers for grid development
Sustainability • More renewables far
from loads
• New electricity uses
(mobility with electricity,
heat pumps...)
Competitiveness /
Market integration •Optimal resources sharing
•More long distance trans-
european flows
Security of Supply
• continuity of supply of
remote/isolated areas
• Prevent large
disturbances
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 16
What are the tools needed for infrastructure development?
1. The EC’s Infrastructure Legislation!
Transmission line permitting in <3 years with one-stop shops
Transmission regulatory improvements for better financing
The ENTSO-E TYNDPs with better and better cost-benefit methodologies as the basis for
“Projects of Common Interest”
2. A 2030 and 2050 modular transmission plan for a Electricity Highways system
A 3-year R&D study with TSOs + broad consortium for the definitive 2050 grid study
Major changes in electricity generation and use major changes in transmission
Need to know soon whether to introduce a higher voltage level, of which kind
Transmission becomes cheaper and more efficient (less losses, less land needed) at
higher voltage
3. And: Public acceptance campaigns by MS governments for Electricity
Highways, linking European infrastructure to their daily needs
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 17
Grid length
+1.3% per year
with RES triggering 80%
of assets growth
1/3 of present generation capacity to
be replaced to meet demand in the coming
decade
+3% per year
Peak load growth
+1.7% per year
Security of Supply:
21.900 km
Internal Energy Market:
18.200 km
Renewable Energy Sources
Integration: 44.700 km
TYNDP 2012: A stronger grid to answer major challenges
Europe-wide 52 300 km:
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 18
2020 Europe - 100 bottlenecks in the transmission system
RES is triggering
80% of assets growth
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 19
With a robust and clear Project Assessment Methodology
• Every project valuated against 9 criteria
• Basis for further selection of
Projects of Common Interest
(in the new Infrastructure Regulation)
+ technical
description
+ monitoring
Grid transfer
capability
increase
Social and
economic
welfare RES integration
Improved
security of
supply
Losses
variation
CO2 emissions
variation
Technical
resilience Flexibility
Social &
environmental
impact Costs
+ ... MW
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 20
2020 Europe – 17% increase in infrastructure
By end 2016 2017 and beyond
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 21
2020 Europe - About €100 billion in investments
• €100 billion investment on
grids…
• 1.5-2 €/MWh in Europe over the
10-year period,
• 2% of the bulk power prices,
• less than 1% of the total end-
users’ electricity bill
billion € billion €
Austria 1.1 Ireland 3.9
Belgium 1.9 Latvia 0.4
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0.0 Lithuania 0.7
Bulgaria 0.2 Luxembourg 0.3
Croatia 0.2 Montenegro 0.4
Czech Republic 1.7 Netherlands 3.3
Cyprus 0.0 Norway 6.5
Denmark 1.4 Poland 2.9
Estonia 0.3 Portugal 1.5
Finland 0.8 Romania 0.7
France 8.8 Serbia 0.2
FYROM 0.1 Slovakia 0.3
Germany 30.1 Slovenia 0.3
Greece 0.3 Spain 4.8
Hungary 0.1 Sweden 2.0
Iceland 0.0 Switzerland 1.7
Italy 7.1 United Kingdom 19.0
Total ENTSOE perimeter 104
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 22
EC actions and its new Regulation on Priority Infrastructure
Connecting Europe Facility
Regulation
Initially = € 9 bl. !! for transmission
gas and electricity projects
Regulation on guidelines for the implementation of European energy
infrastructure priorities
Permitting streamline
Identification of Projects of common interest(PCIs)
Cost benefit analysis
Regulatory framework
Incentives and financing
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 23
1. Permitting and public acceptance
Slow and cumbersome permitting procedures the main obstacle for delivering investments
Public acceptance cannot be improved by TSOs alone
One third of the transmission infrastructure is currently delayed.
2. Legislative implementation
– Some compatibility among the 27 MS energy policies
– Some stability in EU legislation - avoid new concepts becoming part of official documents
3. Attractive financing framework
“real” return in line with businesses of similar risk profiles
incentives for activities “really” managed by TSOs
legislation and regulation in line with 20 to 50 years assets
Building the necessary infrastructure – 3 main problems
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 24
EU electricity HV landscape change
EU electricity high voltage landscape will drastically change in the coming years:
(Offshore grid, Electricity Highways…)
2013 2050
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 25
Partial undergrounding of EHV power lines
can help to build grids faster.
ENTSO-E paves the way to e-Highway250
2020
ENTSO-E's
TYNDP
Planned
projects &
policies
Possibilities &
Uncertainties
2030
RIP's:
NSCOGI,
MEDGRID….
SO&AF
ENTSO-E Visions
Regional plans
Envisaged projects
e-Highway2050 -TSO questionnaires
-Review of European policies
-Review of scenario studies
European scenarios
Possible projects
IEA ETP/WEO
ECF Roadmap 2050
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
EURELECTRIC's Power Choices
FP7 projects…
etc …
Time
2050
e-Highway 2050 Project
27
The STUDY
The Concept of ‘Electricity Highways’
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 28
Two main drivers for
infrastructure development
in Europe:
RES Integration
& Market integration
Electricity highways: what are we talking about?
An electricity highway is:
A transmission line with significantly more capacity to
transport power than existing high-voltage lines
Technology solutions and integration in existing AC grid are
still open today
though some DC technologies most likely
In the longer term Electricity Highway System (EHS) is likely to
be created
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 29
Why Electricity Highways?
Political will to decarbonise EU economy 20-20-20 Strategy
2050 Energy Roadmap
RES - key tool of the decarbonisation are located far from consumption centres Offshore wind
Desertec – MENA (Middle Eastern and North African)
Integration of large RES will dramatically change geography of electricity flows across Europe Variable renewable potential accross Europe
Intermittency of RES requires more network development for balancing purposes
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 30
Why Electricity Highways?
3
1
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 31
3
2
E-Highway2050
Boundary Conditions
http://www.e-highway2050.eu/e-highway2050/
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 32
RSE
WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
WP6
WP7
WP8
WP9
WP10
Leaders
Sintef
Amprion
REN
Technofi
Elia Gr
RTE
ENTSO-E
DENA
RTE
The Structure of the Project
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 33
The Consortium
Name Country
RTE FR
AMPRION DE
REN PT
ELIA BE
Swissgrid CH
CEPS CZ
TERNA IT
PSE op PL REE * ES
APG* AT
Energinet* DK
Svenska* SE
HTSO* GR
EKC*
TRANSELECTRICA* RO
Name Country
SINTEF NO
RSE IT
ECN NL
IPE PL
TSO Research Institute
Name Country
BRUNEL UK
COMILLAS ES
IST PT
LEUVEN BE
ENSIEL IT
TU BERLIN DE
University
Name Country
ENTSO-E BE
EURELECTRIC BE
EUROPACABLE BE
EWEA BE
T&D EUROPE BE
Association Name Country
DENA DE
Name Country
TECHNOFI FR
CEP UK
E3G BE
POYRY UK
Public Energy Ag
SME
28 Direct Partners
MS Represented through Associations
Research
TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO
TSO
University
University University8
University University
Research
Research
Research
University
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 35
Partners
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 36
The Progress Report of e-Highway2050 Project
The project started on September 1st 2012
Grant Agreement was signed in October.
e-Highway2050 project in figures:
28 direct partners, 16 TSOs
18 nationalities,
911 person.months,
13 M€ total cost, 9 M€ Grant,
40 months.
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 37
The Progress Report of e-Highway2050 Project
The choice of the Energy Scenarios for 2050: a key
milestone of the whole e-Highway2050 Project.
CONSULTATION with:
TSOs
Stakeholders comments before developing the
next steps of the project.
The choice
of the
Scenarios
Distribution
of G/D/E
per country
(cluster)
and
scenario
2050 Grid
architecture
per
scenario
Roadmap
2020 - 2050
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 38
e-Highway2050 scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts about the
future. We do not conclude that one scenario will be more likely to happen than
another, nor that one scenario is more preferred or "better" than another.
Rather, each e-Highway2050 scenario is one alternative image of how the
future of European Electricity Highways (EHS) could unfold.
Uncontrollable uncertainty (Future)
Controllable option (Strategy)
Scenario = { criteria }
Criteria
Some definitions, as introduction on Scenarios
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 39
Objective: select a panel of scenarios challenging
enough in order to cover a wide scope of possible
futures, in a limited cases to study for the Pan-European
transmission grid".
Uncertainties (examples)
Technical uncertainties
• Technology cost and performance
• Fuel cost and availability
• .....
Economic/financial uncertainties
• Economic growth
• Venture capital availability
• ......
Political/social/environmental uncertainties
• Public perceptions and acceptance
• International climate policies
• International vs. national policy focus
• …
Research, Development & Deployment uncertainties
• CCS maturity
• Multi-terminal HVDC operability
• …..
Options (examples) Technical options
• RES deployment: wind, solar, biomass, …..
• Non-RES techn: Nuclear, CCS, …..
• Network techn: HVDC, FACTS, ...
• End use efficiency
Economic/financial options
• Energy and capacity markets
• Subsidies/support schemes
• Taxes
Political/social/environmental options
• Regulations
• Industry standards
• Information campaigns
Research, Development & Deployment options
• Research funding
• Laboratory facilities
• Demonstration sites
Futures Strategies
Scenarios
METHODOLOGY FOR SCENARIOS’ SET UP
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 40
Futures Strategies Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6
MARKET LEDLARGE SCALE RES
SOLUTIONS
LOCAL
SOLUTIONS100% RES
NUCLEAR &
CCS
WITHOUT
NUCLEAR
Future 1 Green Globe NUC X-1 X-2 X-3 NUC X-4
Future 2 Green EU CCS X-5 X-6 X-7 CCS CCS
Future 3 EU- Market X-8 No Policy X-9 No Policy No Policy No Policy
Future 4 Big is beautiful X-10 CCS Illogical X-12 X-13 X-14
Future 5Small things
matterNUC/CCS Illogical X-16 X-17 NUC CCS
Scenario selection
5 futures x 6 strategies = 30 e-HW possible scenarios.
Elimination of scenarios (future x strategy) with contradictions.
Market led ( NUC) x Green Revolution ( no NUC)
example: scenario {Green revolution x Market led} is not possible.
30 scenarios 15 scenarios
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 41
5 relevant e-HW2050 Scenarios:
Scenarios Selected
Futures Strategies Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6
MARKET LEDLARGE SCALE RES
SOLUTIONS
LOCAL
SOLUTIONS100% RES
NUCLEAR &
CCS
WITHOUT
NUCLEAR
Future 1 Green Globe NUC X-1 X-2 X-3 NUC X-4
Future 2 Green EU CCS X-5 X-6 X-7 CCS CCS
Future 3 EU- Market X-8 No Policy X-9 No Policy No Policy No Policy
Future 4 Big is beautiful X-10 CCS Illogical X-12 X-13 X-14
Future 5Small things
matterNUC/CCS Illogical X-16 X-17 NUC CCS
X-7
X-16
X-5
X-10 X-13
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 42
THE 5 FINAL SELECTED e-HIGHWAY2050 SCENARIOS
The next steps
of the project
will be built
from these
scenarios
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 43
CONSULTATIONS
The choice of
the scenarios
Distribution
of G/D/E per
country and
scenario
2050 Grid
architecture
per
scenario
Roadmap
2020 - 2050
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 44
A consultation of the TSOs followed by Consultation with
Stakeholders by the partners working on scenarios development.
Zoom on Scenario & 2050 Grid Architectures
(WP2)
Four main Processes to elaborate Grid Architecture Options in 2050:
1. 2050 Scenario Development
– To develop detailed scenarios of the distribution of generation (G)
and demand (D) in Europe for 2050, including third country
exchanges (E).
2. Pan European Grid Model
– Introduce an adequate model of the Pan-European transmission
system in 2050 based on interacting-clusters . 3. Power Market Simulation
– Power market simulations that balance G/D/E in each cluster.
4. Grid Analyses
– Grid analyses based on developed grid model and power market
simulation results to develop options for “overlay grid”-architectures.
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 45
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
PRELIMINARY “PROJECTED” DEMAND PER SCENARIO:
in figures...
Large scale RES & no
emissions “100% RES” Big & Market Big Nuc and CCS “Small and Local”
(x-5) (x-7) (x-10) (x-13) (x-16)
(1) ‘BAU’ electricity
demand in 20504600 4600 4600 4600 4100
(2) 2050 ‘BAU’ +
electrification6100 6100 6100 6100 4400
(3) final electricity
demand in 20505500 4900 5200 5500 3500
(4) Final demand
met by transmission4700 3000 4100 5200 1400
Calculation step
[TWh / year ]
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 49
Power
Choices EU Energy RM 2050 SUSPLAN ECF RM
2050
IRENE-40
TOTAL EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN 2050:
COMPARISON WITH OTHER EU STUDIES (TWh/year)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
201
0 R
efer
ence
Bas
elin
e
Po
wer
Ch
oic
es
Ref
eren
ce
Cu
rren
t P
olic
y In
it.
Ener
gy E
ffic
ien
cy
Div
. Su
pp
ly T
ech
n
Hig
h R
ES
Del
aye
d C
CS
Low
Nu
clea
r
Red
Yello
w
Gre
en
Blu
e
Bas
elin
e
All
80%
sce
nar
ios
BA
U
Effi
cien
cy
CC
S
Des
erte
c
RES
EREC
100
% R
ES
TWh
/ye
ar
Demand
X-5, X13
X-7 X-10
X-16
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 50
Conclusions
1. TYNDP 2012 - 17% increase in grid needed by 2020 ≈ 52300 km
2. Europe-wide grid planning for the urgent 10-year needs, and for 2030 and
2050, is important but only one part: Network codes are also needed
urgently, and so is the market integration (described in NCs)
3. The new methodologies based on the 3rd IEM Package – TYNDP, NCs
– provide a solid framework and foundation for further studies and further
integration
4. ENTSO-E paves the way to e-Highway2050 and the selection of the
Energy Scenarios is a key milestone of the e-Highway2050 project.
5. Needed Energy Option Long Term Development, Planning and
anticipating the Future.
Transmission Infrastructure - ESCAP - AEH 4 September 2013 Urumqi China| Mihai PAUN | Page 51
top related