eradicating poverty in the 2030 agenda: some intergenerational considerations · 2016-06-02 ·...

ERADICATING POVERTY IN THE 2030 AGENDA: SOME INTERGENERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

Expert Group Meeting, DESA/DSPD, New York

June 2016

Shantanu Mukherjee, Head, Report Team Human Development Report Office, UNDP

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ROADMAP

An inter-generational approach: key elements

Eradicating poverty – a reality check

Making the most of the SDGs

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ERADICATING POVERTY IN A GENERATION- THE FIRST HALF

Eradication – what does it mean? Poverty lines Minimum levels The first 15 years: Sustained economic growth Better policies and programmes Shared political imperative Improved knowledge and understanding Substantially different challenges 0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

East Asia & Pacific(developing only)

Latin America & Caribbean(developing only)

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa(developing only)

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ERADICATING POVERTY IN A GENERATION- THE NEXT HALF

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

GLOBAL MDG PROGRESS: CAN THE MDGs BE ACHIEVED?

INTER-GENERATIONAL ERADICATION OF POVERTY

Intra-generational eradication of deprivations Matching skills to opportunities – changes in the

distributions Cross-generational relationships

Mobilities are unequal

Unsustainability and climate change

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INTRA-GENERATIONAL ERADICATION OF DEPRIVATIONS

Skills for living: Parenting skills plus investments matter – broader than finances; public and private Multiple skills – cognitive, social, task-specific, adaptability, health ‘Skills beget skills’ – complementing across time periods Complement investments – cumulative impact Interventions matter: Baird et al (2015) following up on Miguel & Kremer (2004) – deworming of Kenyan children Annualised financial rate of return – 32% Gender differentiated outcomes

Source: Cunha and Heckman (2009)

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THE SCALE OF OVERLAPPING DEPRIVATIONS 0

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ess:

Depr

ivatio

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unt

0 50 100 150Monthly household expenditure per capita in PPP $

Deprivation scores fall as expenditures rise Correlations generally low at every expenditure level In many contexts, accounting for multiple deprivations significantly increases the count of those left behind – e.g. in sample of 25 fragile states MPI-poor population is 1.5 billion

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MATCHING SKILLS TO OPPORTUNITIES – CHANGING DISTRIBUTIONS

Will existing drivers of poverty reduction continue to be as effective? Structural transformation Technological change – migrating jobs, redundant skills, increasing pace Social contract and organization

Source: Human Development Report: Work for Human Development (2015), UNDP

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CROSS GENERATIONAL DYNAMICS

Income, medical and care services for the elderly Pensions and transfers Distribution of aggregate resources Household provision of care- reinforcing gender roles, limiting women’s opportunities?

Source: World Population Prospects (2015), UN

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MOBILITIES ARE UNEQUAL

Intergenerational mobility can vary across groups Symptomatic of inequities

0

5

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15

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25

30

35

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1995 2005 2011

Nepal: 'Youth productive ability' quintiles and caste

HBC_high

AD_high

HBC_low

AD_low

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COMPOUNDING ALL CHALLENGES

Sustainability Repetto, Solow, Brundtland… From local to planetary scales Rapidity, inertia and potential irreversibility Interrelated challenges Disease vectors Agriculture Catastrophic shocks

Source: Steffen et al (2015)

GLOBAL MDG PROGRESS: CAN THE MDGs BE ACHIEVED?

SGDs: AN ERADICATION AGENDA

SDGs – over 70% are about leaving no one behind Poverty, hunger, health, learning, gender, water, energy,

sanitation, jobs and decent work, cities, industrialization, societies…

Many have identified who is being left behind and

how Bottom of the income distribution Working poor, smallholder farmers, rural Roma, indigenous and other minority ethnic groups Elder people and children Women Disabled

National political realities may differ

GLOBAL MDG PROGRESS: CAN THE MDGs BE ACHIEVED?

IMPLEMENTATION FOR ERADICATION

Overlapping deprivations, interlocking constraints and cumulative effects Need for varied, multi-dimensional, customized approaches Early childhood care and development, learning – preparing for the

unanticipated Aging – poverty of the old, poverty of the care givers

Leveraging the move to sustainability Moving to sustainable work – are we investing enough to allow the poorest

to access clean energy or improved agricultural practices? Is the global political environment conducive?

Artificial intelligence, mechanization, premature de-industrialisation – can poverty reduction keep up?

Climate change – enhancing vulnerability, adding urgency

GLOBAL MDG PROGRESS: CAN THE MDGs BE ACHIEVED?

THREE OVERARCHING CONSIDERATIONS –ONE BINDING CONSTRAINT?

Data and dynamic monitoring – advocacy and evidence Translating growth into removing constraints and providing

opportunities Individuals realize full potential Growth process draws on talent and skills of all

Deepening the normative basis Voting, bargaining and deliberation to shape collective choices Civil society voice and accountability Dealing with the reality of the minority

JUST ONE SPACE TO MOVE INTO

16 © United Nations Development Programme

Thank You shantanu.mukherjee@undp.org