emily sekula-wood, claudia...
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Clarissa AndersonUniversity of South Carolina & UC Santa Cruz
Emily Sekula-Wood, Claudia Benitez-Nelson,Christopher Burrell, Steve Morton, Robert Thunell
University of South CarolinaSteve Bograd
NOAA-SWFSC/PFEL
Dave Siegel, Mark Brzezinski, Libe WashburnUC Santa Barbara
Raphe Kudela, Jenny LaneUC Santa Cruz
Trainer et al 2000, Hickey and Banas 2003, in Kudela 2005
DA events are now a seasonal stressto the coastal California ecosystem
1998 DOMOIC ACID EVENT
The Santa Barbara Channel has been a recurring hotspot
Santa Barbara Channel Oceanographic Monitoring
-121 -120.8 -120.6 -120.4 -120.2 -120 -119.8 -119.6 -119.4 -119.2 -11933.8
34
34.2
34.4
34.6
34.8
Longitude (°W)
Latit
ude
(°N
)
Pt. Conception
5354
23
RBCOP
San Miguel
Santa RosaSanta Cruz
Anacapa
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
89
10
11
12
1314
15
1617
18
1920
212223
2425
• SBC LTER – 2000-2006, seasonal grid• Plumes and Blooms – 1996+ monthly• CODAR HF Radar (&SCCOOS)• SBB Sediment Traps & Cores• CalCOFI 82.47 –1984 – 2008, seasonal
SSD
020406080
100120140160180200220240260280
Pseudo-nitzschia spp. Abundance(x 103 cell L-1)Cellular Domoic Acid(pg cell-1)
Nov Dec Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov Jan Mar Mar Apr May Jun2004 2005 2006
Mon
thly
Mea
n A
cros
s S
tatio
nsPlumes and Blooms Time Series:
Pseudo-nitzschia and DA, 2004-2006
June 2005
Aug 2005May 2006
June 2006
Cyclonic Eddies –offshore retention?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
090320 090421 090728 90827 90925 91030 91120 100226 100324 100721
PN Avg
pDA Avg
Pseudo-nitzschia spp. Abundance(x 102 celsl L-1)Particulate Domoic Acid (ng L-1)
Plumes & Blooms Transect: Pseudo-nitzschia and DA 2009-2010
El Niño YearLate Fall Events w/ eddies
High DA!!!
Mea
n A
cros
s S
tatio
ns
Mar Apr Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
NSF Project: Benitez-Nelson, Anderson, Sekula-Wood, Burrell
Feb Mar Jul2009 2010
data gapMay-June
data gapDec-Jan
No Pseudo-Ncell counts yet!
Significant PredictorsFULL
MODELS
Significant PredictorsRS parameters only
MODELS
Pseudo-nitzschia
Abundance
-Rrs(510/555)-Si:N
-Month-Si:P
-Rrs(510)
-Rrs(510/555)-Month
-Rrs(490/555)
ParticulateDA
+Chl-Si:N
-Nitrite-Temp
+Salinity
+Chl+Salinity-Rrs(555)
PLUMES & BLOOMS: 2004-2006 & 2009-2010Empirical HAB Models
Anderson et al. 2009 Harmful Algae
A
B
Sediment trap study to examine vertical flux of Pseudo-nitzschia and DA toxin
C. Benitez-Nelson, E. Sekula-Wood, C. Anderson, R. ThunellUniversity of South Carolina
Good coherence between surface samples (from P&B line) and trap fluxes
Sekula-Wood et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Domoic Acid
Pseudo-nitzschia
r2 = 0.66
r2 = 0.50
past events ?
P-nConc.
P-nFlux
Flux(zoom)
From Barron et al. (2009), P-nincreases to 15% relative
abundance in 2000-2001 in SBB core
SBB Sediment Trap Time Series1993 - 1999
E. Sekula-Wood, dissertation
No data
DA FluxP-n Flux
SBB Sediment Trap Time Series2000 - 2008
E. Sekula-Wood, dissertation
P-n FluxDA Flux
Why this apparent jump in DA production after 2000?
Upwelling – 20° C isotherm < 20 m
Pseudo-nitzschia Flux to 540 m Trap
more prolonged upwelling after 1998?
Pseudo-nitzschia Flux to 540 m Trap
OCEANIC NINO INDEX
DA events not highly correlated with either ENSO phase
Pseudo-nitzschia Flux to 540 m Trap
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
Shifts in 2000, but not a smoking gun.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 18-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
NORTH PACIFIC GYRE OSCILLATION (NPGO)
Pseudo-nitzschia Flux to 540 m Trap
Maybe, but drops in 2005
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 18-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Domoic Acid Flux to 540 m Trap
NORTH PACIFIC GYRE OSCILLATION (NPGO)
NORTH PACIFIC GYRE OSCILLATION
Large DA events in traps generally correspond with positive NPGO
If NPGO is involved, what is the mechanism leading to more DA production and/or more blooms in the last decade?
•When positive, the NPGO represents an intensification of the geostrophic circulation, that is a strengthening of the NPC, and (in contrast to the PDO) an increase in the transport of both the Alaskan Coastal Current and California Current circulation…
• In the California Current System (CCS) the NPGO reflects changes in wind stress, in particular the winds that force coastal upwelling..When positive, the associated changes in wind forcing create upwelling-favorable conditions in the CCS and Alaskan Gyre … only south of 38N.
[The 2nd EOF mode of SSHa], the NPGO mode in its positive phase shows a pair of counterrotating gyres that reflect the gyre-scale mean geostrophic circulationinferred from satellite.
Di Lorenzo et al. 2008, GRL
California Undercurrent
o 1984-2008o Quarterly Surveyso consistent samplingo 66 stationso 0-500 mo >100 Occupations
CalCOFI Hydrographic Data
Station 82.47:Santa Barbara Basin
Station 93.30:California Undercurrent
CalCOFI Station 82.47
+
Increasing Anoxia in SBB?• near-surface warming• less dense waters at
western sill• fewer basin flushing events• lower oxygen content
O2
NO3
PO4
SiO4
S
σθ
θ
CalCOFI, Anoxia in the Santa Barbara Basin
Deepest Sample, 1986-2006
O2 ~ NO3 ~ 0
Steve Bograd, SWFC/PFEL
Line 93 Mean Autumn Spiciness
25.6
26.4CUC
600km 400 200 0
400
200
0 m
CalCOFI, California Undercurrent Property Trends:inorganic nutrients, nutrient ratios
Steve Bograd, SWFC/PFEL
1984-2008
CalCOFI, Long-Term Trends in Inorganic Nutrients:magnitude of change, 1984-2008
Nitrate
Silicate
Oxygen
Phosphate
N:P S:N
σθ = 26.5 (CUC core)
Strongest trends at 100-300m offshore; shallower for NO3
Strong deep silicate decline in coastal waters of Bight
Plumes & Blooms Data, Santa Barbara Channelnutrients and nutrient ratios (anomalies)
Nitrate
Silicate
Si:N
mid-channel station, Surface
mid-channel station, 50m
Nitrate ?
Silicate
Si:N
Plumes & Blooms Data, Santa Barbara Channel• deeper Si anomalies more like CUC core data
• Observed rise in toxic diatom blooms in SBC results from
changes in local to regional oceanography, possibly modulated by
climate variability (NPGO).
• Modulation of CUC transport into the SBB by NPGO could
explain the timing of the increase in DA events post-97/98 ENSO.
• Increased blooms related to a change in the biogeochemistry of
upwelled sourcewaters – e.g. the CUC (possibly in turn driven by
changes in its source waters from the eq. Pacific)
SUMMARY: Working Hypotheses
REGIONAL DOWNSCALING and REMOTE SENSING
MODIS-Aqua 1km Chl, Rrs(λ)
Toxic Bloom Nowcasts/Hindcasts
SST, Salinity
Ocean Color
SBC ROMS
BIOGEOCHEMICALBEC MODEL
Embedded in ROMSCOMING SOON!
Statistical HAB Models
Predicted Probability of High Cellular DA
THANK YOU
SBC-LTER (NSF)UCSB Plumes & Blooms (NASA)NASA ESS Graduate Fellowship
NRC Postdoctoral FellowshipNOAA MERHAB Program/Cal PRe-EMPT
NSF Chemical OceanographyCA Sea Grant – OPC
ISSHA Travel Award 2010
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