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20 November 2018
Electrical Propulsion Onwards and Upwards
Robert Thomson
Partner
Roland Berger
Telephone: +44 (0) 203 075 1100
e-mail: robert.thomson@rolandberger.com
2
Agenda
2
Developments in aircraft electrification
A. Environmental pressures
B. Implications for the aerospace industry
C.
A. Developments in aircraft electrification
4
Aircraft electrification has two elements: the More Electric Aircraft (MEA) trend, and the Electrical Propulsion (EP) revolution
It is not a question of if, but when
Next gen aircraft
1967
Boeing 737
2007
Airbus A380
2011
Boeing 787
2025+
> Fuel pump > Landing gear actuation > Wing anti-icing > Flight controls > Environmental Control
System (ECS) > Engine start & controls > Brakes actuation > Thrust reverser
> Cabin equipment > IFE > Lighting > Avionics
> Fuel pump > Landing gear actuation > Environmental Control
System (ECS) > Wing anti-icing > Flight controls > Engine start & controls > Brakes actuation > Thrust reverser
> Cabin equipment > IFE > Lighting > Avionics
Pneumatic Hydraulic Mechanical
Electrical
> HP fuel pump > Landing gear actuation > Environmental Control
System (ECS) > Wing anti-icing > Flight controls > Engine start & controls > Brakes actuation > Thrust reverser
> Cabin equipment > IFE > Lighting > Avionics
All- electric Motor Battery Fan
Turbo- electric Turboshaft Motor
Motor
Fan
Fan
Generator
Hybrid-electric
Battery
Turboshaft
Turbofan
Motor
Motor
Fan
Fan
Fan
Motor
Generator
Battery
Series hybrid
Electrified components
Parallel hybrid
More Electric Aircraft (MEA) Electrical Propulsion (EP)
5
The pace of introduction of new, electrical propulsion developments has risen very sharply in the past few years
2%
26 22
2011 2009
16
39
2015
33
2014
20
2010 2012 2016
7
Pre-2009
48
2013
5
2018 YTD
43%
~130
10%
2017
45%
92
1) Only including developments with first flights after 2010, excluding UAVs and purely recreational developments
Source: Secondary research, Roland Berger
Large commercial Regional
Urban air taxi
General aviation
c. +40
c. +80
Known electrically-propelled aircraft developments by announcement date, 2009-Oct 20181) [cumulative #]
Electrical Propulsion (EP)
6
The Urban Air Taxi and General Aviation segments comprise c. 90% of aircraft development programmes, with two thirds all electric
Distribution of ~130 publicly known electrically propelled aircraft programmes, Oct-181)
1) Only including developments with first flights after 2010; 2) Mainly turbo-electric
Hybrid propulsion2)
30%
All electric propulsion
70%
General aviation (GA)
43%
9%
34%
Urban air taxi (UAT)/eVTOL
45%
13%
32%
Regional aviation
10%
6%
4%
Large commercial aircraft
2%
2%
Electrical Propulsion (EP)
7
The traditional aerospace centres of Europe and North America are home to the majority of electrically propelled aircraft developments
Distribution of ~130 publicly known electrically propelled aircraft programmes, Oct-181)
Wright Electric Los Angeles, CA, US Type: Commercial Propulsion: Hybrid Passengers: 120-180 First flight: 2030
Zunum Aero Seattle, WA, US Type: Regional Propulsion: Hybrid Passengers: 6-12 Thrust: 2 ducted fans First flight: 2019
Ehang 184 Guangzhou, China Type: Urban air taxi Propulsion: Battery Passengers: 1 Thrust: 8 propellers First flight: 2016
Airbus/Siemens/Rolls-Royce E-Fan X Munich, Germany Type: Regional Propulsion: Hybrid Passengers: 50-100 Thrust: 3 turbofans + 1 hybrid First flight: 2020
Vickers WAVE eVTOL Hamilton, New Zealand Type: Urban air taxi Propulsion: Hybrid Passengers: 4 Thrust: 8 propellers
Embraer X eVTOL/Uber Elevate São José dos Campos, Brazil Type: Urban air taxi Propulsion: Battery Thrust: 1 ducted fan and 8 propellers
Aston Martin Volante Cranfield, UK Type: Urban Air Taxi Propulsion: Hybrid Passengers: 3 Thrust: 3 propellers First flight: 2020
Eviation Alice Kadima, Israel Type: Regional Propulsion: Battery Passengers: 11 Thrust: 3 propellers First flight: 2019
Europe
58
North America
55
South America
3
Israel
3
Russia
5
China
2
South Korea
1 Japan
2
Australia
3
New Zealand
1
1) Only including developments with first flights after 2010
Electrical Propulsion (EP)
8
A&D professionals broadly agree that a hybrid-electric aircraft could enter commercial service by the early 2030s, while all-electric is less clear
1
9
7
14
3 2
2017
-202
0
2036
-204
0
2041
-204
5
2021
-202
5
2026
-203
0
2031
-203
5
2046
-205
0
2051
-205
5
2056
-206
0
2061
-206
5
2066
-207
0
2071
-207
5
1
7
5
7
4 5
3 2
1 1
2017
-202
0
2021
-202
5
2026
-203
0
2046
-205
0
2061
-206
5
2031
-203
5
2051
-205
5
2036
-204
0
2041
-204
5
2056
-206
0
2066
-207
0
2071
-207
5
Hybrid-electric aircraft All-electric aircraft
Mean
2032 Minimum
2018 Maximum
2050 Standard deviation
7.3 Mean
2043 Minimum
2025 Maximum
2075 Standard deviation
12.9
Median
1) Results based on a 2017-2018 survey of ~40 Aerospace & Defense professionals
Results from Roland Berger survey of Aerospace & Defense professionals, 2017-75 [#]1)
Electrical Propulsion (EP)
B. Environmental pressures
10
A transition to electrical propulsion is required if aviation is to remain close to today's contribution to global CO2 emissions
A Baseline: continued industry evolution at current pace > Fleet growth of 4.0% p.a. to 2050, aircraft retirement age of 25 years > Fuel burn reduction of 1% p.a. on new aircraft through technology improvement with
cap at 15% relative to today as technology matures > No production of electric or hybrid regional or large commercial aircraft
B Accelerated evolution of today's technology > Fuel burn reduction of 2.5% p.a. on new aircraft through technology improvement
with cap at 42% relative to today2)
> All other assumptions as Scenario A
C Adoption of electric propulsion due to "normal market forces" > Production of hybrid-electric aircraft starts in 2035 > Production of all electric aircraft starts in 2040 > All other assumptions as Scenario B
D Regulatory-driven transition to electrical propulsion > Forced retirement of all existing aircraft at 10 years with replacement by electric from
2030 onwards > All other assumptions as Scenario C
Source: Roland Berger emissions model, IPCC, AG analysis, EU Clean Sky
1) For each scenario, the range is obtained by considering different global emissions Representative Concentration Pathways. Namely, RCP 2.6 for the maximum value and RCP 8.5 for the minimum value. RCP 4.5 is used to obtain the average; 2) Based on Clean Sky assumptions for airframe, system and network improvements
A B C D Today ~3%
~5%
~24%
~8%
~4%
~19%
~6%
~11%
~4% ~5%
~6%
~3%
~3%
Estimate for aviation's share of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions1) in 2050 [%]
11
Scenario D would require a rapid transition to hybrid and electrically propelled aircraft, adding up to c. 70% of the global fleet by 2050
Source: Flight Global, Boeing, Airbus, External research, Roland Berger
0
100
30
10
70
40
20
80
50
60
90
2047
Hybrid-electric
2040
2049
2050
2041
Conventional
2039
All-electric
2045
2026
2035
2024
2044
2027
2030
2037
2029
2031
2036
2028
2025
2034
2032
2038
2021
2023
2022
2020
2048
2043
2033
2042
2046
2017
2016
2019
2018
Global aircraft fleet1) breakdown by propulsion type – Scenario D, 2016-50 ['000 aircraft units]
1) Includes LCA, RCA and freighters
'000 aircraft units
C. Implications for the aerospace industry
13
Significant progress has been made against the barriers to electrical propulsion…but a number of questions are yet to be answered
Landscape of barriers for aircraft electrification
Passenger demand
> Consumer preference to fly "green"/low noise a/c
> Consumer acceptance of autonomous flight
> Willingness to pay for Urban Air Mobility
Airline demand
> Airline willingness to take new technology risk
> Airline ability to maintain/increase profits with electric propulsion
> Demonstrating similar/reduced cost per seat mile
Effective batteries
> Battery performance
> Battery safety/hazard containment
Efficient electric machines
> Light, high power density generators and motors
> Power electronics
> Safe and light high voltage distribution
Autonomous flight technology
> Essential for UAT business case
Technology Regulation driving change
> Emissions controls
> Noise targets
Regulation adapting to change
> Certification of novel technology
> Air traffic management of Urban Air Taxis
> Management of data & network security
Infrastructure requirements
> Implementation of charging points in airports
> Additional solutions for electricity generation
Policy Market demand
What product architecture(s) will emerge to overcome these barriers?
14
Will electrical propulsion power Airbus and Boeing's next aircraft which are to expected to enter service in the early 2030s?
1965
1974
A300
1988
A320 1993
A330
A340
2007
A380
2014
A350
2030
A30X
Expected development
and introduction of a commercial scale hybrid-
electric power system
1965
737
1969
747
1982
757
767
1995
777 2030
NSA
2011
787
12 years 16 years 8 years
Overview of all-new historical and future civil aircraft development programmes
15
Which type of player will emerge to control electrical propulsion systems' development & certification?
Source: Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Siemens, Roland Berger
Airframer
Electrical systems company
Engine company
16
What clean energy generation solutions will be required to power future airports?
Energy demanded by UK airports and potential solutions for London Heathrow (2050)
Source: UK DfT, National Grid, Innovata, Roland Berger
UK power demand for electric aircraft (MW)1)
c. 30x current LHR area2)
c. 2,000 90-m tall wind
turbines
c. 55x current LHR area3)
c. 0.5% of UK 2050 generation capacity4)
c. 1/3rd of nuclear power station Hinkley
Point C5)
Solar Onshore wind Grid Nuclear
Potential solutions for London Heathrow
MAN 300
BHX 200
LHR 1,300
LGW 400
Rest of UK 1,300
Σ 3,500 MW
1) Employing electrification scenario D, and assuming 24 hour constant charging for replacement batteries; 2) Land use 0.03km2/MW for concentrated solar power and 10% load factor; 3) Land use 0.15km2/MW and average turbine power 2.5MW, based on Whitelee Wind Farm, largest onshore wind farm in the UK, and 28% load factor; 4) Based on National Grid forecast without electric aircraft; 5) Station with 2 EPR reactors totalling 3,200 MW
17
Airframers
> What electrical propulsion segments should you play in?
> How to get involved? (venture capital model, direct R&D, development partnerships?)
Systems suppliers
> Where to focus R&D efforts? > Who to partner with and how
(e.g. start-ups)? > How to capitalise on
existing capability?
Sub-tier suppliers
> How to develop product portfolio to be ready for an electrically propelled future?
> How to partner with OEMs, suppliers and start-ups to keep pace with technological development?
Engine companies
> Focus on hybrid-electric or battery-electric technology?
> How to capitalise on existing capability?
> What electrical propulsion segments should you play in?
Aerospace incumbents must begin considering how to survive – and thrive – in an electrically propelled future
Key questions for aerospace players in electrical propulsion
Operators
> Who will emerge to operate the new aviation segments (sub-regional, Urban Air Taxis)?
> Will safety levels for these be the same as traditional aerospace?
Policy makers
> How can airworthiness authorities enable the trend but maintain safety standards?
> How will airspaces change? > How will public infrastructure
evolve to enable the shift?
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