effects of climate change on canadian agriculture and adaptation opportunities presentation to...
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Effects of Climate Change on Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture and Canadian Agriculture and Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities
Presentation to Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry
Ed Tyrchniewicz P.Ag
President, Agricultural Institute of Canada
February 20 2003
OutlineOutline
But agriculture is different –Elements of climate change and
agricultureBenefits and concerns for agricultureAdaptation opportunities
But Agriculture is Different:But Agriculture is Different:Some Realities ...Some Realities ...
Biological process of production is very dependent on climate and weather
Climate variability is a fact of life – risk management
Ag sector generally operates in global markets with narrow margins and limited opportunities to pass costs on to customers
But Agriculture is Different:But Agriculture is Different:Some More Realities ...Some More Realities ...
Process of policy making in agriculture is a shared federal-provincial responsibility
Focus on short term income problemsExpanding exports is seen as a solution;
dealing with climate change is notPerception of agriculture as a polluter
and destroyer of the environment
Elements of Climate ChangeElements of Climate Change
TemperaturePrecipitation Variability
more extreme weather events
risk management
Sources of Greenhouse Sources of Greenhouse GasesGases
CO2 Fossil fuels, soil destruction,
deforestation
Methane Agriculture, landfills, coal mines, gas
production losses
N2O Soil, Fossil fuels, Fertilizer
Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Agriculture’s Emissions
Gas Relative GWP (CO2
equivalent)
% of 1996 Ag. Emissions (CO2 eq.)
CO2 1 3%
CH4 21 36%
N2O 310 61%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from CanadianAgroecosystemsfrom 1996
( CO2equivalent)
Manure19.9%
Fertilizers11.3%
Crops13.2%
Enteric fermentation18.5%
Other3.4%
Benefits to AgricultureBenefits to Agriculture
• potentially more heat units• longer frost free season• increase moisture in some drought
prone areas of Eastern Canada
• CO2 growth enhancement
Concerns for AgricultureConcerns for Agriculture
increased variability in climate raised sea level on the East and
West Coasts increased and decreased soil
moisture in different parts of Canada
more/different weeds and bugs more erosion
Changes in Ecozone Changes in Ecozone BoundariesBoundaries
Present Day Doubled-CO2
Agriculture has a history of Agriculture has a history of adapting to changeadapting to change
technology
markets
policies
climate
Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities
Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent
coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading
Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities
Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent
coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading
Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities
Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent
coverCarbon storage Carbon emissions trading
Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities
Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent
coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading
Adaptation OpportunitiesAdaptation Opportunities
Conservation tillageManure managementShelterbelts and permanent
coverCarbon storageCarbon emissions trading
Blessed are the FlexibleBlessed are the Flexible
For They Shall Not Get Bent Out Of Shape
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