edward e. gordon edward e. gordon

Edward E. Gordon www.imperialcorp.com

“Avoiding a Global Workforce Meltdown”

Agenda

Part I: 2010 Issues

Part II. 2010 Solutions

Part I: 2010 Issues

• Demographics

• Technology

• “The Unflat World” ―

Education Critical Mass

• Help Wanted: Worldwide

World Demographics

Ratio of population 65+ to that ages 20-64

2000 2050

JapanEUGermanyOECDU.S.France

Median Age in Selected Countries(2000, 2025,and 2050)

2000 2025 2050

United States 35.5 39.3 40.7

France 37.6 43.3 45.2

Germany 40.1 48.5 50.9

Japan 41.2 50.0 53.1

China 30.0 39.0 43.8

India 23.7 31.3 38.0

Source: United Nations, 2001

Canada50%+

Increase in Workers

Aged 55-64

Over the Next 10 Years

Source: Forum of Labour Market Members (FLMM)

Canada

48%Labour Market Population

Aged 45-64

Over the Next 10 Years

U.S. Workforce between 2010 & 2020

70 Million retire from the workforce

40 Million enter the workforce

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, 2005.

Growth of U.S. Population Age 65+

33343536373839404142434445464748495051525354

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

U.S. Population over 65(in millions)

Change in U.S. Population2000-2020

7 5 7 -10 3

Percent

Under14

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 &older

Age GroupSource: U.S. Census Bureau

Annual Growth Rates ofU.S. Labor Force 1950-2030

.03%.04%

1.1% 1.1%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Jobs & the EconomyA Century of Transition

“Old” America Transitional “New” America(20th Century) Events (21st Century)

Mass Production 1970s High Tech =Low-Skill/ PCs Introduced High-Skill/High-WageHigh-Wage Jobs Jobs

What Does It Mean To Be

A “Skilled Person”?

Late 1800s Able to write your name

1930s Three of more years of schooling(Civilian Conservation Corps)

WWII Fourth-grade education (Army)

1947 Five or more years of school(Census Bureau)

1952 Six or more years of school(Census Bureau)

1960 Eighth-grade education(U.S. Office of Education)

21st Century High school education plus(U.S. Office of Education & the Conference Board)

The Unflat World

Unflat World2003 PISA Rankings of Selected Nations

Country Math Reading ScienceFinland 1 1 1South Korea 2 2 3Japan 4 12 2Canada 5 3 8Germany 16 18 15Poland 21 13 16United States 24 15 19

55% of

Canadian 15 Year-Old Students

Read Below Grade Level

66% of

U.S. Students

Grades 1-12

Read Below Grade Level

Adult Literacy & Life Skills Survey 2003

Conducted by the OECD & Statistics Canada

First report: Learning A Living (2005)

Unflat WorldNumeracy (% of adults at each level)Country Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5

Bermuda 21.4 32.7 29.9 16.0

Canada 19.5 30.3 33.4 16.9

Italy 43.5 36.7 16.8 3.0

Norway 10.6 29.6 41.5 18.6

Switzerland 8.6 30.7 37.8 22.9

U.S. 26.8 31.8 28.8 12.7

Unflat WorldProse Literacy (% of adults at each level)Country Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5

Bermuda 12.5 25.6 35.6 26.3

Canada 14.6 27.3 38.6 19.5

Italy 47.0 32.5 17.0 3.5

Norway 7.9 26.2 45.3 20.6

Switzerland 15.9 36.3 35.7 12.1

U.S. 20.0 33.6 34.6 12.8

India CanadaPopulation 1.1B (Est.) 32M

Literate

Adult 61.0% 97.7%

Youth 76.4% 99.6%

Women Illiterate 51% 2.8%

Source: UNESCO, 2002-04

IndiaCanada

Primary School Enroll. 1 89% 95%

Second. School Enroll. 1 51% 91%

College Enroll. 1 12% 70%

GDP Spend on all Educ.2 4.2%3 7.3%1UNESCO 2002-03

2OECD, 2004

3Majority Spent on Higher Education.

China Canada

Population 1.4B 32M

Literate

Adult 90.9% 97.7%

Youth 98.9% 99.6%Source: UNESCO, 2002-03

Education Critical MassChina

CanadaPrimary School Enroll. 1 94% 95%

Second. School Enroll. 1 69% 91%

College Enroll. 1 19% 70%

GDP Spend on all Educ.2 2% 7.3%1UNESCO 2002-032OECD, 2004

Help Wanted Worldwide

“Smart People” Deficit 2020

Worldwide Estimate ― 32-39 million jobs Country Breakdowns:

U.S. – 17 million

Japan – 9 million

Russia – 6 million

France – 3 million

Germany – 3 million

Britain – 2 million

Source: All India Management Association, 2003.

12+ Million Canadian Workers

LackReading

Writing

Skills to do their jobs properly

Canada44%

Canadians Aged 56-65

Unable to Meet

Labor Market Education Levels

Canada60%

New Jobs Require

A Post-Secondary

Education Component

Percent of Adults Ages 16-65 atLevels 1 and 2 (IALSS, 2003)

0%10%20%

30%40%50%

60%70%

80%90%

Canada Ontario Quebec Alberta BC

ProseDocumentNumeracy

Percent of Population 16 & Over at Prose Literacy Levels 1 & 2

1994 2003

CANADA 48% 48%

Ontario 47% 48%

Quebec 54% 55%

Alberta 36% 40%

British Columbia 43% 40%

U.S. Jobs Shifts 2000-2020(In Millions)

Job Categories 2000 2010 2020

Professionals/Executives 44 52 60

Sales, Technical 42 50 60

Tech Support/ Skilled Craft 22 29 43

Low End Service 20 25 27

Other Low Skill Jobs 24 21 17Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005

Predicted 2010 Labor Shortages • 1,000,000 Nurses• 50,000 Clinical Pathologists• 10,000 Dentists• 7,000 Air Traffic Controllers• 50,000 Auto Mechanics• 1,000,000 Math, Science & Special Ed

Teachers• 1,000,000 Computer Engineers & Support

Personnel

+14% Increase in Literacy Skills

Needed for

All U.S. Occupations

(1996-2006)Source: Barton, 2000

25Fastest Growing U.S. Occupations

Demand High Literacy

Source: Barton, 2000

25Fastest Declining Occupations

in the U.S.

Have Low Literacy Requirements

Source: Barton, 2000

Halton RegionTop Growth Enterprises

1. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

2. *Construction

3. Management of Enterprises

4. Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

5. Administrative & Support

6. *Transportation & Warehousing

7. Manufacturing

8. Finance & InsuranceSource: Statistics Canada

Canadian Workforce

1. Smart People (25%)

2. The Walking Dead (25%)

3. Techno-Peasants (50%)

The “Walking Dead”

Techno-Peasants

Matching high-tech jobs with ill-prepared workers

“In 2020, there will be two distinctly disparate social segments: college-educated information pushers . . . and manual laborers with corresponding demarcations in race and status.”

“Smart People”

Labour Force by EducationHalton Region & Ontario 2001

Halton Ontario

Less than High School Certificate 15.7% 19.7%

High School Certificate only 13.3% 15.0%

Some Post Secondary 12.8% 12.5%

Total 41.8% 47.2%

Source: Statistics Canada

U.S. “Smart People” Deficits

Year Deficits

2010 5M1

2020 12-17M2

2030 35M3

1U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2005

2Anthony P. Carnavale, 2002

3Manpower, 2001

Small Business:Unfilled Positions Near Record High

Businesses Hiring orAttempting to Hire 50%

Reporting Few or

Unqualified Applicants 80%

Firms with One or More

Unfilled Positions 31%

Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses (NIFB), April 2006

“There is a supply problem in

our labor markets.”- William Dunkelberg, Chief

Economist

National Federation of Independent

Businesses

Shopping the World

Outsourcing

H-1B Visa

Reality Check

India outsourcing:

131,000 U.S. jobs

United Kingdom outsourcing:

1,100,000+ U.S. jobs

Source: OECD, 2005

Reality Check

China outsourcing:

344,000 U.S. jobs

Canada outsourcing:

1,000,000+ U.S. jobs

Source: OECD, 2005

The 2010 Meltdown

“If a country’s workforce contracts and its smart people decrease, then the economy will shrink”

The Technology Paradox

Technology Globalization

The 2010 Meltdown

DemographicsEducation andCareer Skills

EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill

orLow/Wage/Low Skill

EconomyExpands or Contracts

Agenda2010 Solutions

1. Business Culture

2. Career Culture

3. Mobilizing Community Culture

4. The 2010 Challenge & Beyond

Viewpoints on Change

“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

Leo Tolstoy

Business Culture

Life-Time Mean Training Hours

All Levels Drop Outs

High School Grads

Some College

CollegeGrads

Canada 2109 1115 1420 2863 5444

Germany 1833 1397 2361 2027 2668

United

Kingdom

1666 926 1937 3331 3339

United

States

1403 364 1116 1575 2523

Source: OECD and Statistics Canada, International Adult Literacy Survey, 1994-95.

U.S. BusinessTraining & Development Expenditures

Year $ (Billion) +/- % Rounded

1990 45.5 ▬

1995 52.2 +15

1996 59.8 +15

1997 58.6 -2

1998 60.7 +4

1999 62.5 +3

U.S. BusinessTraining & Development Expenditures

Year $ (Billion) +/- % Rounded

2000 54.0 -14

2001 56.8 +5

2002 54.2 -5

2003 51.3 -5

2004 51.4 ▬

Source: Annual Industry Reports,” Training

Practicing the “Sixth Discipline”

The Learning Organization

Corporate University

1. Intel

2.McDonald’s

3.Harley-Davidson

1.Lumonics

2. Dofasco

3. Metra

What Business Needs:

A Measurable Definable Process

that is Transferable

Return-on-Investment (ROI)

The Sixth Discipline’s“ Winning Formula”

High-Tech Highly Increased IncreasedWorkplace + Educated = People + Profit

Workers Productivity

Career Culture

Career Education

Human Ability Areas

1. Linguistics

2. Logical-Mathematical

3. Spatial

4. Musical

5. Bodily Fine-Gross Motor

6. Interpersonal

7. Intrapersonal

Source: Robert J. Sternberg, 1996

Germany

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Dresden

Dual System

Mobilizing Community Culture

Non-Governmental Organizations

(NGOs)

Community development starts at the grass roots

Formula for Success:People plus Ideas plus the right resources

How to get started?

OVERCOME three clichés

1. “Timing is everything”(Take action during a crisis)

2. “It’s WHO you know”(Networking)

3. “It takes two to tango”(Giving up some turf)

Timing Is EverythingTaking Action During a Crisis

Santa Ana, California

Research Center Workforce Institute High School, Inc.

It’s Who You Know

Centre of Excellence in

Petroleum Development(Nova Scotia, Canada)

Career Culture Education Culture

The 2010 Challenge and Beyond

Education Prep.and

Lifelong Learning

Career and JobAlternatives

orLow/Wage/Low Skill

Business Culture

The “C” (Culture) Factor

Culture X Literacy = Education X Marketplace = GDP

C = A nation’s attitudes & motivation on the importance of personal learning & applying it throughout life.

L = Personal reading practices & formal schooling.

E = The “critical mass” of a nation’s knowledge.

M = The socioeconomic forces driving business, government and non-profit activities.

GDP = Gross Domestic Product: The wealth of a nation.

Viewpoints on Change

“You must be the change you wish to see in the world.”

Mahatma Gandhi

Tomorrow

Business Educators

The 2010 Solution

EconomyExpands

NGOIntermediary Agency

Liberal Arts Education& Career Prep.

Incumbent WorkerLifelong Learning

Parents & Students Government

Dr. Edward E. Gordon

www.imperialcorp.com

312-664-5196

edward e. gordon edward e. gordon

worldwide slide

unflat world slide

grade level slide

conference board slide

wage highwage jobsjobs

years source

office of education

workforce source

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